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Tuesday, Sep 21, 2021
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IIT-Kharagpur develops COVID-19 predictive model

IIT-Kharagpur develops COVID-19 predictive model
outlookindia.com
1970-01-01T05:30:00+0530
Kolkata, Jun 22 (PTI) IIT Kharagpur has developed a

model to help predict the future spread of COVID-19 which can

facilitate decision making in health-care, industry and even

academics.

The study also indicates that the disease may continue

to prevail in the country till September-end, a statement

issued by the institute said.

Prof Abhijit Das from the Department of Computer

Science and Engineering has developed the logistic model which

can be used to fit the available daily counts of infection

cases.

The trend reveals that the country is yet to achieve a

steady pattern in the spread of the disease, Das said.

"It is unlikely to get rid of COVID-19 before the end

of September 2020.

"This does not leave us in a region of comfort, but

the reality has to be accepted, and appropriate plans must be

chalked out to address all the issues associated with the

outbreak of the pandemic," Das said.

The data used for the predictions pertain to the

entire country, and for the eight most affected states of

Maharashtra, Tami Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh,

Rajasthan, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh.

Talking about the model development, he said, "We have

used only the daily infection counts available in the public

domain without accessing sensitive information pertaining to

medical records or contact-tracing data for a large fraction

of the population.

"Despite that, the prediction curves show remarkably

good fitting with the past data, and can be used for future

planning," he said.

However, the predictions change quite rapidly with

time, Das said.

There are several potential factors for this such as

separate mobility patterns of people in different phases of

lockdown, large-scale migration of labourers, change in

diagnostic facilities, evolution of coronavirus, and so on, he

explained.

These are well beyond the control of the logistic

model or any other currently known prediction model, he said.

Director, IIT Kharagpur, Prof Virendra Kumar Tewari

said that though the model is experimental, it can be helpful

in planning academic semester and policy matters related to

the institute under the current circumstances.

"People have been living in an uncertain black box

without the knowledge about which way life is going to turn

and how to plan their activities. A study like this based on a

clear statistical model will enable them to understand and

plan their way forward," the director said. PTI SUS

MM MM


Disclaimer :- This story has not been edited by Outlook staff and is auto-generated from news agency feeds. Source: PTI

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