Nitish Kumar has had a 20 year run as Chief Minister of Bihar. He was an early (first?) champion of women’s empowerment in India, as was Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and hence their strong bond, despite important differences in party affiliation, and outlook.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) form a formidable team in Bihar, especially since the concentration, and campaign, is around delivery of living standards. As we will show below, the performance record of Nitish Kumar is more than enough for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to romp home with a two-thirds majority. Some experts believe that the Rs 10,000 dole per eligible poor woman—in the guise of a to-be-returned investment loan—is a game changer for Nitish and the NDA. Data suggests that this dole—even the BJP campaigners believe, and advocate, that this is a grant, and not a loan—was completely unnecessary for a comprehensive NDA victory. Please look at the data presented below before jumping to conclusions of dole game changers.
Bihar has been at the bottom of the per capita income ladder, forever. In 1980, the per capita GDP of Bihar was 62 per cent of Uttar Pradesh (UP). When Nitish became CM in 2005, Bihar had fallen further behind, with per capita income only 56 per cent of second-place (from bottom) UP. In 2023-24, Bihar’s per capita income was 66 per cent of UP. The separate but parallel development of Bihar and UP deserves a detailed analysis, but for the record, and for this election, it is important to note that Bihar has done better than its poorer neighbours, and the national average. Between 2004-5 and 2023-24, the state’s per capita income increased at a rate of 4.3 per cent; Bihar grew at a 1.1 per cent higher rate of 5.4 per cent per annum!
The record on living standards is even better for Bihar. Girl’s education has been a primary focus of Nitish. In 2004-5, the average educational attainment of women aged 15-24 was 3.9 years compared to the national average of 6.5 years. Data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) in 2023-24 shows that young women in Bihar attained 8.8 years of education, compared to the national average of 10 years. This is one of the most impressive increases in educational attainment in the world, let alone India. It is very likely that soon we will see the same average educational attainment levels for both men and women in Bihar. At an all-India level, gender parity in youth education was achieved in 2023-24—both men and women at 10 years. An important caveat—this statistic does not account for the quality of education.
There are two important planks of the opposition in the Bihar election—Vote Chori, led by the junior dynast partner Rahul Gandhi, and jobs led by the senior partner (and dynast) Tejashwi Yadav. Vote Chori is a standard complaint in practically all elections across the world. That is not to excuse its prevalence, but rather to warn the reader that there is nothing new in this allegation. In How We Vote—a book co-authored by me and Abhinav Motheram—we examine the detailed and sophisticated Vote Chori allegations made by Sabyasachi Das for the BJP’s win in 2019. Our conclusion, the same as @Saiarav, is that statistically speaking, there was no Vote Chori in close contests.
The allegation of lack of jobs made by the RJD supremo Tejashwi Yadav, if true, can be a game changer for the opposition. Unfortunately (for them), there is little evidence to support the claim that Bihar is in a particularly adverse situation compared to the rest of India (and the world). Worldwide youth unemployment rates were particularly low in 2004-5, and particularly high in 2023-24. Note that China has stopped releasing youth unemployment rates!
Youth unemployment rates for India increased from seven per cent in 2004-5 to 12.8 per cent in 2023-24—for Bihar, there has been a parallel increase of 6.1 ppt (percentage points) usual status definition. But the true colours of women first model of Nitish are revealed by the data on youth female unemployment rates. Nationally, the increase is of 5.9 ppt (from 6.9 per cent in 2004-5 to 12.8 per cent in 2023-24). In Bihar, the increase is of only 3.5 ppt—to a low level of 6.1 per cent in 2023-24, i.e. less than half the all-India rate.
We have not discussed the large improvements in law and order in Bihar. Indeed, other than manufacturing—an area where the lack of improvement is a national shame—Bihar is doing particularly well with the entry of Nitish Kumar in governance. There is legitimate discussion about the Bidenesque state of Nitish. Hence, the argument goes that notwithstanding his stellar record—as documented above—in performance and longevity, the NDA alliance could face turbulence in Bihar.
Amongst election experts, this forecast has been bolstered by the turn-out data for phase I—a record high of 64.5 per cent. Normally, high turnout is good for the opposition i.e. there is greater support for the slogan “throw the rascals out” than “stick with the good guys”. My forecast, based on the data presented above, is that high turnout reflects women wanting to ensure that their “exceptional” progress continues; hence, the forecast that the NDA will likely achieve a higher than two-thirds majority.
Election forecasts are hazardous. I concur. If it is a close election, there is good news for India. Politicians will be less prone to indulge in fancy and fiscally destructive gimmicks like Rs 10,000 per “eligible” woman, and more prone to invest in investment.
(Views expressed are personal)
Surjit S. Bhalla is chairperson of the technical expert group for the first official household income survey for India
MORE FROM THIS ISSUE
This story appeared in print as 'Perform, Not Purchase' in Outlook’s November 21 issue Solitude Of Power, in which we trace Bihar’s enduring political grammar, where caste equations remain constant, alliances shift like sand, and one man’s survival instinct continues to shape the state’s destiny.
