Summary of this article
BJP is leading in West Bengal 2026 Assembly election counting trends.
TMC shows a sharp drop in seats compared to its 2021 performance.
Results indicate a major shift in West Bengal’s political balance.
The 2026 West Bengal Assembly election has shown a clear shift in seat numbers, with counting trends placing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead in the 294-member House, while the Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, has recorded a sharp fall from its 2021 performance.
According to Election Commission counting trends reported through live updates, the BJP is leading in around 192 to 197 seats, while the TMC is ahead in approximately 90 to 95 seats. The majority mark in the Assembly is 148 seats, placing the BJP above the threshold in current trends.
This result stands in contrast to the 2021 Assembly election, when the TMC secured 215 seats and returned to power for a third consecutive term, while the BJP won 77 seats as the main opposition.
Mamata Banerjee’s electoral arc and TMC’s consolidation
Mamata Banerjee’s political rise has been central to the TMC’s position in West Bengal over the last decade and a half. After breaking away from the Congress, she formed the Trinamool Congress and led it to power in 2011, when the party won 184 seats, ending 34 years of Left Front rule in the state. She retained control in 2016 with 211 seats, and further strengthened her position in 2021 with 215 seats, marking the peak of the party’s electoral performance.
Across these three elections, Mamata Banerjee remained both the face of the party and its principal campaign strategist, with the TMC expanding its reach across rural districts, urban centres, and minority-dominated regions of the state.
The 2026 counting trends, however, indicate a sudden reduction in that dominance, with the party currently trailing significantly behind its previous seat tallies. The decline from 215 seats in 2021 to below 100 seats in current trends marks the most significant drop for the party since it came to power in 2011.
BJP’s rise from marginal presence to lead position
The BJP’s rise in the state has come in two major surges rather than a steady progression. From 3 seats in 2011 and 2016, the party jumped to 77 seats in 2021 and is now leading in nearly 200 seats in 2026 trends, according to the Election Commission.
The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls was conducted ahead of polling as part of routine voter list updating by the Election Commission. It involved standard verification and revision of voter entries across constituencies prior to the election. Though the SIR faced criticism for alleged unprecedented deletions and additions.
Polling for the 2026 Assembly election was held in two phases on April 23 and April 29, with counting beginning on May 4 across 77 centres covering 293 constituencies. West Bengal recorded a voter turnout of over 92 per cent, according to Election Commission.
As counting continues in a few constituencies, the overall trend shows a reversal in seat distribution compared to 2021, with the BJP emerging ahead and the TMC, under Mamata Banerjee’s leadership, has unfortunately seen a fall from grace.
