Assembly Elections 2026: For Congress In Assam, It Was a Battle Against Himanta And Hemant

The increase in voter turnout recorded in the recently concluded Assembly election in Assam is being interpreted in different ways. In the past, based on election outcomes in several states, a rise in turnout between two elections has often been seen as a sign of anti-incumbency voting—that is, voting against the government in power. However, if one looks at the results of some recent Assembly elections, the pattern appears to be quite the opposite. In several cases, higher turnout has actually helped the ruling governments return to power, often with a stronger mandate than before. Bihar can be cited as one of the most prominent examples of this trend.

In any case, the results to be announced on May 4 will make it clear whether Assam follows the Bihar pattern of strengthened incumbency despite higher voting, or whether the traditional reading of increased turnout leading to a change in power holds true.

For now, the picture in Assam suggests that despite the entry of smaller parties, the contest has largely remained a direct fight between the two traditional national rivals—the BJP and the Congress. Although the Congress was supported by some Left parties, their share of seats was limited.

Polling for all 126 Assembly seats in Assam was held in a single phase on April 9 this time, with turnout reaching around 85.64 per cent. In contrast, the 2021 Assembly elections in the state were conducted in three phases and recorded an overall turnout of 82.42 per cent. In other words, participation increased by roughly 2.5 to 3 per cent this time. Elections were held in five states altogether this round; four of them voted in a single phase, while West Bengal is voting in two phases, scheduled for April 11 and April 17, 2026.

For the Congress, the Assam election posed a double challenge. On one side stood the ruling BJP, and on the other, its former ally—the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).

Interestingly, the Congress and JMM have been governing together in Jharkhand for the past six years. However, disagreements over coordination and seat-sharing before the election led to a breakdown in their understanding, after which JMM decided to contest independently in Assam. The party fielded candidates in 17 seats, directly opposing Congress nominees in each of them.

During his campaign speeches in Assam, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren repeatedly stressed the need for unity among tribal communities. At one rally, he remarked that if tribal groups in Assam came together, they could significantly reshape the state’s political direction.

At the same time, a minister from the Jharkhand government representing the JMM quota, who was actively campaigning in Assam, said in an off-the-record conversation with Outlook India that it was difficult to predict whether the party would win seats, but it expected to secure between 15,000 and 20,000 votes in each constituency it was contesting.

He added, “This election is important for our party from the point of view of shaping its future in Assam by 2031. There has been a growing inclination among tribal communities here toward Hemant Soren and Kalpana Soren. We received a positive response from tribal voters, and in addition to them, we estimate that up to 20 per cent of Muslim votes also came our way in each seat. We will now begin building our organisation there. In the next election, JMM will emerge as a third alternative. The Tea Tribe community has high expectations from Hemant Soren and believes he will help secure their rights.”

JMM had never contested elections in Assam before, nor does it have an established organisational base there. This raises the question: if the party does secure votes, whose support base will those votes come from? While the minister claimed that the BJP’s vote share had been affected, a senior tribal leader from the Jharkhand Congress, who had been campaigning in Assam for several months, said JMM’s presence could dent Congress’s prospects in nearly ten seats.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said, “Congress was poised to win most seats in Upper Assam, but Hemant Soren’s entry has complicated matters. The Tea Tribe community was unlikely to move toward the BJP under any circumstances this time; they would have voted for Congress. The Tea Tribes include many different groups with internal differences, and Congress had worked to bring them together to a considerable extent. However, there is also an emotional connection among them, and that sentiment seems to have shifted toward Hemant Soren. How far that translates into votes is difficult to say. He may not win even a single seat, but whatever votes he gets will come largely at Congress’s expense.”

According to him, Congress in Assam has effectively been fighting two “Hemants”—Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren.

Traditionally, the major contest in Assam has been between the Congress and the BJP. After years out of power, the Congress hopes to regain the political ground it once lost to the BJP, particularly among tribal communities that migrated from Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Bihar and neighbouring regions. Consolidating these groups again remains a major challenge.

Hemant Soren and his party, too, are focusing on these very communities, many of whom have been struggling for decades to secure recognition of their tribal rights. One of the major organisations representing these concerns is the All Adivasi Students’ Association of Assam (AASAA), which later went on to form the Jai Bharat Party. Hemant Soren contested the Assam election in alliance with this group.

According to AASAA, more than one crore tribal and Scheduled Caste people in Assam are currently placed in the OBC category by the state government. Their ancestors had been brought to the region during British rule as labourers for tea plantations. Their demand now is that they be granted the same constitutional status in Assam—either as Scheduled Tribes or Scheduled Castes—as they receive in the states from which their families originally migrated.

In the nineteenth century, when Assam formed part of the Bengal Presidency, most labourers working in tea plantations in Assam and West Bengal came from tribal communities in present-day Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. While these communities have been granted Scheduled Tribe status in West Bengal, they continue to struggle for similar recognition in Assam. In the state, they are commonly referred to as Tea Tribes or migrated tribal communities.

Hemant Soren has consistently raised the issue of their rights. In February, the Jharkhand government sent a team led by minister Chamra Linda to Assam to study the socio-economic conditions of these communities.

It is estimated that there are around 30 Assembly constituencies in Assam where migrated tribal communities play a decisive role. JMM believes that nearly 70 lakh tribal people and tea garden workers in the state are in a position to influence electoral outcomes.

On this basis, JMM had initially demanded 30 seats from Congress in Assam, but the Congress was unwilling to go beyond offering three to five. At the same time, political circles have also discussed the possibility that Hemant Soren’s decision to contest in Assam followed a longer-term strategic roadmap, with some suggesting that JMM’s presence in the election may have indirectly benefited the BJP.

Media reports indicate that JMM’s impact in Assam may be felt less in terms of victories and more through vote division, something that could pose a challenge for Congress. In roughly 8 to 12 constituencies, especially in tea garden and tribal-dominated areas, JMM may cut into Congress’s traditional support base. Even without winning seats, a 2 to 5 per cent vote shift could work to the BJP’s advantage and turn contests triangular.

Mahmodul Hassan, a senior journalist from Assam, believes that the BJP still holds the upper hand in this election, though the contest is tighter than before.

Hassan says, “If the difference between Congress and the BJP comes down to eight or ten seats, those constituencies where Hemant Soren’s candidates were in the fray will certainly be examined closely. If Congress loses those seats by margins of five to ten thousand votes and JMM secures roughly the same number there, then Hemant Soren’s role will clearly have made a significant difference.”

Hassan further observed, “Ultimately, Hemant Soren is denting Congress’s prospects. Most of the anti-BJP tribal voters in Assam belong to migrant communities. But they have also remained wary of Congress because their land rights and related demands were not resolved during the long years of Congress rule. Even in the past ten years, the BJP has not addressed these concerns either. In such a situation, if JMM had not contested, these voters might have shifted toward Congress. Now they have another option.”

Most of the constituencies where JMM is contesting are currently represented by BJP legislators. However, among Tea Tribe communities in these seats, there has been visible dissatisfaction with Himanta Biswa Sarma and the BJP over the past five years. Congress had therefore been hopeful of gaining ground here, but it remains to be seen how much support JMM is able to attract.

According to the 2011 Census, Assam had a population of about 3.88 crore, including a substantial number of tribal and tea garden communities. Out of the state’s 126 Assembly constituencies, 19 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes and 9 for Scheduled Castes.