Tamil Nadu Polls: DMK, AIADMK Discuss Backup Plan If Vijay’s TVK Misses Majority

Tamil Nadu’s post-election deadlock has opened the possibility of an unlikely arrangement between the DMK and AIADMK, with leaders from both Dravidian rivals exploring a fallback plan if Vijay’s TVK fails to prove a majority in the Assembly, according to Indian Express.

Sources from both parties told Indian Express that one option under discussion is for the AIADMK to form the government with outside support from the DMK and backing from smaller parties. “Nothing has formally happened yet. But conversations among leaders and internal meetings across camps suggest that this possibility is no longer just theoretical,” sources said.

The political developments gathered pace late on Wednesday after Governor Rajendra Arlekar reportedly insisted that TVK submit documentary proof of majority support before any invitation to form the government. The move effectively stalled TVK’s expectation that Vijay could first be sworn in and later prove his majority on the floor of the House.

TVK won 108 seats in the Assembly elections declared on Monday, though its effective tally stands at 107 as Vijay will have to vacate one of the two constituencies he contested and won. In the 233-member Assembly, the majority mark is 117. The DMK secured 59 seats and the AIADMK 47, taking their combined strength to 106.

According to Indian Express, the Governor’s stand created a political opening that prompted fresh conversations between the state’s two principal Dravidian parties. “The first move came from AIADMK, and DMK did not reject it instantly,” sources said.

The developments also underlined the resistance within sections of the political establishment to a Congress-backed TVK government. The Congress had earlier ended its longstanding alliance with the DMK and extended the support of its five MLAs to Vijay’s party.

The Congress move initially appeared to strengthen Vijay’s prospects. However, within hours, it reportedly complicated his efforts to secure support from other parties. Senior leaders from Anbumani Ramadoss-led PMK, Thol Thirumavalavan-led VCK and T V Dhinakaran’s AMMK, who had maintained informal communication with TVK intermediaries until Wednesday morning, began distancing themselves from the prospect of backing a Vijay-led government.

Sources in NDA allies also told Indian Express that the Congress-TVK understanding had altered the political situation. Two NDA insiders reportedly indicated that “Delhi” had conveyed that alliance partners should not facilitate a TVK government supported by Congress.

Senior DMK leaders privately expressed anger over the Congress decision. One senior leader said Rahul Gandhi had spoken to M K Stalin over the phone and reassured him, “I am with you, brother.” By the following day, however, Congress had formally moved towards supporting TVK.

“Rahul could have done this more gracefully. The Congress’s MLAs and MPs in Tamil Nadu were elected largely because DMK voters supported the alliance. Otherwise, they couldn’t win a single seat,” the DMK leader said.

A former DMK minister described the situation as “politically uncomfortable” but “not unethical”. “It would be unethical if we poach MLAs. Let Vijay prove his mandate. If he fails, then the next developments can evolve politically,” the leader said.

With uncertainty continuing over TVK’s numbers, political activity intensified in Chennai on Wednesday night. According to AIADMK sources, around 50 MLAs were being moved to The Shore Trishvam resort in Puducherry as part of internal consultations and contingency planning. By around 10.30 pm, nearly 15 legislators had reached the resort, while others were still travelling.

Under the arrangement being discussed informally, Vijay would first be asked to prove his majority in the Assembly. If he fails, the AIADMK could stake claim to form the government with Edappadi K Palaniswami as Chief Minister, while the DMK would extend outside support and smaller parties could be accommodated in a coalition arrangement.

Parties expected to be part of such an arrangement include PMK and AMMK from the NDA alliance, besides CPM, CPI, VCK, DMDK and IUML.

Leaders in both camps maintained that discussions remain fluid and no final decision has been taken. However, meetings involving AIADMK legislators on Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a DMK legislators’ meeting expected on Thursday, are increasingly being viewed in that context.

The public position emerging from sections of both parties is that they are not opposing Vijay’s mandate but insisting that he demonstrate majority support constitutionally. “If he succeeds, he governs. If he fails, a different arrangement becomes legitimate,” sources said.

What remains unclear is how voters, particularly first-time TVK supporters, would react if a government eventually takes shape through an arrangement involving the DMK and AIADMK, parties many believed they had voted against.

Earlier on Wednesday, during Vijay’s meeting with Governor Arlekar at Raj Bhavan, the Governor is learnt to have reiterated that any claim to form the government must be accompanied by a list demonstrating support from at least 117 MLAs.

“The Governor reminded Vijay that he had already conveyed during an earlier phone conversation that documentary proof of majority support would be essential,” TVK sources said.

Raj Bhavan sources indicated that the Governor is expected to leave for Kerala on Thursday. The development derailed TVK’s plan for a quick swearing-in ceremony on Thursday or Friday, under which Vijay and three or four senior colleagues were expected to take oath.

(With inputs from Indian Express)