Summary of this article
Mamata Banerjee defends her home turf against a direct challenge from Suvendu Adhikari.
The BJP is executing a booth-level campaign based on specific caste and demographic arithmetic.
The result acts as a critical political bellwether for the upcoming 2026 assembly elections.
Bhabanipur, once a reliable political sanctuary for Mamata Banerjee, faces a significant test on April 29 as the Chief Minister squares off against Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari. The assembly seat, which serves as Banerjee’s home turf, has evolved into a high-stakes electoral battleground where the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) aims to defend its political authority against a concerted challenge from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The contest is viewed as a symbolic rematch of the 2021 Nandigram election, where Adhikari defeated his former mentor. For the BJP, capturing this constituency would challenge the image of invincibility surrounding the state’s leadership.
Often described as a ‘mini India’, Bhabanipur comprises eight Kolkata Municipal Corporation wards with a diverse social mix. According to PTI, the electorate consists of approximately 42 per cent Bengali Hindus, 34 per cent non-Bengali Hindus, and nearly 24 per cent Muslims, alongside migrant populations from Bihar, Odisha, and Jharkhand.
The BJP has conducted a detailed analysis of the constituency, mapping it booth by booth. Party insiders claim the electorate is composed of 26.2 per cent Kayasthas, 24.5 per cent Muslims, 14.9 per cent eastern Indian migrant communities, 10.4 per cent Marwaris, and 7.6 per cent Brahmins. This approach treats the area as a calibrated caste-community contest rather than a standard urban seat.
The constituency's history reflects broader political shifts in West Bengal. Formerly a Congress stronghold represented by figures such as Siddhartha Shankar Ray, it ceased to exist following the 1972 delimitation. It was revived in 2011, the year the Left Front’s 34-year rule ended. Following Subrata Bakshi’s initial victory and subsequent resignation, Banerjee secured the seat in the bypoll to legitimise her role as Chief Minister. After her 2021 loss in Nandigram, she returned to Bhabanipur, defeating BJP’s Priyanka Tibrewal by over 58,000 votes.
Reporting on the TMC strategy, Kolkata Mayor and senior leader Firhad Hakim stated: “This is not just another seat. People here have repeatedly stood by Mamata Banerjee’s politics of development and inclusiveness.” The party is emphasising the "ghorer meye" (daughter of the house) narrative, focusing on welfare schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar and Kanyashree.
The BJP, however, maintains that voter sentiment has evolved. BJP leader Debjit Sarkar noted: “The battle here cannot be fought with one slogan. It has to be fought booth by booth, community by community. The state now wants Ram Rajya. People are tired of appeasement politics.”
PTI reported that the party’s confidence stems from trends observed in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where the TMC’s lead in the Bhabanipur segment narrowed to 8,297 votes. The BJP led in five of the eight wards during that contest.
Furthermore, PTI noted that the recent Summary Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls reduced the electorate to 1,55,291, with over 51,000 names deleted. TMC figures indicate that 23.3 per cent of these deletions were Muslim voters, while 76.7 per cent were non-Muslims.
Political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty views the contest as a psychological test. “By fielding Suvendu in Bhabanipur, the BJP is trying to convert the seat into another Nandigram, but this time on Mamata Banerjee’s home turf. For the TMC, defeating him here is necessary to restore political authority,” he said. The result will indicate whether the TMC can maintain its hold or if the political landscape has fundamentally shifted.
(With inputs from PTI)
