The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast indicating an impending severe summer, with above-normal maximum temperatures anticipated across the country from March to May. Predictions suggest an extended duration of heatwave conditions, contributing to an overall warmer summer, driven primarily by the persistent El Nino phenomenon.
El Nino, characterised by elevated sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, has been in effect since the previous year. The IMD anticipates these conditions to persist until May, transitioning to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions.
Mrityunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, remarked, "Above normal maximum temperatures shall prevail during the summer season over most parts of the country. Even though El Nino conditions are waning, it will still drive the temperatures above normal and contribute to prolonging the heatwave spells."
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The forecast emphasises potential longer-than-usual heatwave spells and warmer nights during March to May. Certain regions, including Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and portions of West Bengal, are expected to maintain maximum temperatures within the normal range.
Southern India experienced its warmest-ever February, while central India observed an unusually warm month. The IMD notes that March in southern India is expected to commence on a warm note, with northern India likely to receive rainfall under the influence of passing western disturbances.
Heatwave conditions are projected to emerge during the latter half of March, particularly affecting Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, north interior Karnataka, and southern Maharashtra. As ENSO neutral conditions are anticipated around the onset of the southwest monsoon, the IMD suggests favorable ocean conditions for the upcoming monsoon season.
