Summary of this article
4023 candidates are in the fray for 234 seats
DMK anchored its campaign on state rights and welfarism
AIADMK’s western stronghold under spotlight this election, as TVK poses a challenge
After nearly two months of a high-decibel campaign, political leaders in Tamil Nadu wait with bated breath as voters head to the polls in what is widely seen as a crucial election that could reshape politics in the Dravidian heartland. The entry of actor Vijay with his fledgling party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the campaign around the state’s right to representation, and the AIADMK’s shifting alignment with the BJP have together made the contest more complex.
The campaign narrative in this election was set by the DMK when its leader, M. K. Stalin, framed it as a fight between the NDA and Tamil Nadu. Initially aimed at targeting the AIADMK for aligning with the BJP and portraying it as subservient to the saffron party, this positioning gained wider national attention during discussions around delimitation.
The Union government’s decision to link women’s reservation with delimitation gave a shot in the arm to the DMK in the midst of the campaign. Stalin’s act of burning a copy of the bill generated a strong political response. “I am ready to face a thousand emergencies. Only those controlled by Delhi’s remote will bow down,” he said while addressing voters in his constituency.
The AIADMK and the BJP, in turn, accused the DMK of acting against women’s empowerment by opposing the bill in Parliament. While opposition parties initially tried to anchor the campaign around corruption, dynasty politics, and nepotism, the DMK focused on issues of federalism alongside highlighting its welfare policies.
“The DMK and the Congress are anti-women forces. The people will react to this,” the BJP’s women face in Tamil Nadu, Dr. Tamilsai Soundrarajn commented after the bill was defeated in the Lok Sabha.
The presence of Vijay, drawing large crowds to his rallies and roadshows, has added further layers of complexity to the election. “Our organisation( Vijay Fan’s association) was approached by different political parties for support earlier, and we voted individually. Now we have our own party. Now we have more members than the DMK and AIADMK have, and and it will reflect in the election,” says Aswin Jayaprakash, a TVK social media coordinator.
A widely shared assessment among observers is that the TVK’s presence could split anti-DMK votes in several constituencies. This makes the western region particularly crucial for the AIADMK, where it performed strongly in 2021, winning 43 of 57 seats across districts such as Salem, Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Erode, and Dharmapuri. Any inroads by the TVK here could significantly alter the electoral arithmetic for the AIADMK.
For the DMK, which dominated in Chennai, northern, and central Tamil Nadu in 2021, gains in the western belt could offset potential setbacks in its traditional strongholds.
The contest here is further complicated by candidates such as veteran leader K. A. Sengottaiyan, now with the TVK, contesting from Gobichettipalayam, where his longstanding association with the AIADMK could influence voter behaviour.
The DMK-led alliance swept southern Tamil Nadu, winning 42 of the 58 seats in the 2021 election. Of the 36 seats across the districts of Madurai, Dindigul, Theni, Virudhunagar, Sivaganga, and Ramanathapuram, it secured 25. These constituencies are significantly influenced by the OBC Thevar vote. Former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam commands considerable support among this section and is now contesting from the Bodinayakanur constituency as a DMK candidate. His entry, DMK hopes would change the region’s electoral picture.
Seats such as Thirupparankundram, in Madurai are witnessing triangular contests, with the AIADMK facing stiff competition from the TVK. TVK joint general secretary CTV Nirmal Kumar is contesting against sitting MLA Rajan Chellappa.
Vijay is contesting from two seats, from Trichy East and Perambur in Chennai, both seats were won by the DMK with more than 50,000 votes margin.
TVK in its campaign mainly focussed on corruption and dynasty politics.
In 2021, Tamil Nadu elected a DMK government after a decade, with the party-led Secular Progressive Alliance winning 159 of 234 seats with a 45.38 per cent vote share, while the AIADMK led NDA secured 75 seats with 39.71 per cent votes.
Since then, alliances have shifted significantly. The DMK front has expanded, bringing in parties such as the DMDK, founded by the late Vijayakanth, which is now contesting as part of the alliance. Kamala Hassan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam is also with the DMK front.
Though the principal contest remains between the DMK-led alliance and the AIADMK-led NDA, the emergence of Vijay’s TVK has made this one of the most unpredictable elections in recent years.
4,023 Candidates in fray for 234 state assembly seats.
As the state heads into polling, the contest has evolved beyond a straightforward bipolar fight. While the DMK seeks to retain its dominance through a mix of welfare politics and a strong federal narrative, the AIADMK-led NDA is banking on consolidation of anti-incumbency sentiment. The emergence of Vijay’s TVK, however, has injected a layer of unpredictability, particularly in closely fought constituencies where vote splits could prove decisive.
