The BJP asserting full control without JD(U), allowing Nitish Kumar to continue briefly before replacing him, or Nitish shifting again to the Mahagathbandhan to stake claim to power.
Nitish Kumar stands at a turning point: JD(U) lacks a successor, his health and political credibility are in question, yet his electoral relevance remains intact; he could either accept a “redemptive” role as Leader of Opposition or risk being sidelined.
Bihar’s wider political narrative is still unsettled: caste dynamics, fear of “Jungle Raj,” cross-party patronage of bahubali politicians, media trolling of defeated leaders, and Jan Suraaj’s failure all contribute to a landscape where the final political outcome is still unfolding.
The story of 2025 Bihar Assembly Election doesn’t end with the results that gives the NDA a sweeping victory. There are two possibilities still.
One would be that the BJP begins to assert itself and forms the government with other allies without the JD(U) or waits for sometime and let Nitish Kumar be the chief minister for a bit and then take over.
The other would be that Nitish Kumar aligns himself with the Mahagatbandhan and others to stake a claim to form the government.
The mandate, it seems, is offering those options to both. JD(U) doesn’t have a second-rung in terms of who will succeed Nitish Kumar, the longest-serving chief minister in Bihar. His failing health has been in the news and the goodwill that he commands in Bihar is still intact although his loyalty to any alliance has been questionable.
Nitish Kumar knows very well or must know very well that he is now easily dispensable and the signs of his loneliness in terms of the BJP not specifically declaring him as the CM candidate was manifest in the posters that were released that had Nitish Kumar alone. Him saying “tiger abhi zinda hai” on a poster was him trying to make himself relevant and he is when you look at JD(U)’s performance which has almost doubled its seats from the last assembly elections that happened in 2020.
But the chair belongs to those who can keep it and Nitish Kumar kept it for a long time. There comes a time in politics when one is offered either dignity through a redemptive act or is presented with a situation where they will be discarded.
There is another chair. The chair of the leader of opposition which seems to be that redemptive act that Nitish Kumar can opt for now at this stage in Bihar’s political landscape.
While caste remains a factor that many underestimated in Bihar and Nitish Kumar’s astute social engineering has delivered results, the fear of what the NDA calls the “Jungle Raj” seems to have worked in Bihar and the RJD wasn’t able to shed that baggage of the reign of Lalu Prasad Yadav where law and order failed in Bihar.
The truth is far from it because political violence in Bihar is not new and the tickets given to candidates who are known “bahubalis” like Anant Singh of Mokama who won on a JD(U) from jail after he was arrested in connection with the murder of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s former aide Dularchand Yadav is proof that political patronage given to criminal-politicians in Bihar cuts across party lines. Media hit a new low with their jibes against the candidates who lost, including those from the RJD and Jan Suraaj and Congress.
Jan Suraaj, which was projected as the third alternative in Bihar, and talked about education and unemployment, didn’t win a single seat and the media has now gone after Prashant Kishor, whose failure seems to make them very happy.
In politics, nobody can be written off so easily. It is important that the media exercises restrain and does not join the bandwagon of those who like to take people down. Trolling by journalists of politicians is a sad state of affairs.
Prashant Kishor tried and he didn’t make it but that doesn’t mean he needs to now face this kind of trolling on television channels. And trying in a state like Bihar takes a lot.
While analysts and political scientists are trying to process the results, the three options remain open and in the days to come, there will be claims and complaints and calculations.
The battle for Bihar isn’t over. It is yet to unfold.
