60 Days Of West Asia Conflict: A War Without Victory

Two months into the US and Israel’s war of choice on Iran, there are no winners. The ceasefire is holding, but with negotiations coming to an abrupt halt, the war of words from both Washington and Tehran has intensified. There are ominous signs that fighting could resume at any time, unless an agreement is reached fast. But for now both sides are holding their ground.

In the last 60 days, despite its overwhelming military power, America could not force Iran to bend. Instead Iran’s counter- offensive cost America and its Gulf allies significant damage. Neither  the US nor Iran can claim  outright victory. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have realised his long-cherished goal of drawing Washington directly into a strike on Iran, but the outcome is far from the decisive strategic shift he thought it would be. Iran has emerged strategically much  better placed than it ever was since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The idea of regime change has long been abandoned by the US.

The costs, however, are immediate and brutal. Iran has lost key pillars of its political and military establishment, its Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, senior commanders, seasoned strategists like Ali Larijani all wiped out in waves of precision strikes and relentless bombardment, since February 28. Cities have been scarred, infrastructure shattered, and even centuries-old heritage sites  targeted by the US-Israel missiles and jets. The US has tarnished its image  by the attack on a girls  elementary school in Minab that killed 156 civilians,  including 120 schoolchildren  on the first day of the war. Over three thousand Iranians were killed.

The nightmare  continues for ordinary Iranians, already battered by years of sanctions and isolation. People now have to bear the heavy  burden of even  higher inflation, scarcity of commodities and job loss at the same time.

Beyond Iran’s borders, the shockwaves are unmistakable. In the course of the war Iran realised that it could   weaponise the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s energy supply passes. America’s counter blockade of the strait to all Iranian vessels has added to an already volatile waterway. The blockades have rattled global markets, sending prices soaring and economies scrambling. Oil is now selling at $120 a barrel. Asian countries, dependent on Gulf oil supplies are among the hardest hit. So is Europe and countries in Africa.

China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, is hard pressed, but better off because of better planning. Fertiliser supplies through the Straits have stopped and fears of food shortage across the world if farmers do not get their quota is another major threat.

With the US warning of a sustained  blockade of the Strait of Hormuz the world economy is in a tailspin. President Trump is in no mood to lift the blockade and believes he now has the right weapon to bring Iran to heel. "Now they have to cry uncle. They just have to say we give up, we give up. Their economy is really in trouble,’’ he told a television channel. He was also quoted as saying to Axios, "The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon.” Trump is signalling that sustained strangulation may achieve what bombs alone cannot, Iran’s capitulation.Iran’s Supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, reacting to Trump's threats, has warned that Tehran would eliminate the enemy's abuse of the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters quoted his   written message  saying there would soon be a new management of the waterways and that Iran would maintain its hold over the Strait. He ended with a warning  that "Foreigners who come from thousands of kilometres away...have no place there except at the bottom of its waters.’’Significantly reports from US media suggest that President Donald Trump was briefed this week  about renewed military action by the US Central Command.

A plan for a  "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iran  to bring matters to a head for a decisive end to Iran’s resistance,  was presented to the President. This would allow Trump to walk away and claim victory. Iran  lashed out at the US threat saying it would respond with "long and painful strikes’’ on US positions if Washington decided to renew the war.

While Trump is determined to continue to blockade till Iran capitulates, Tehran is well prepared to take the pain. Despite the damage to infrastructure and oil exports, reports suggest that Iran has internal supplies to tide over the crisis. While it is true that Iran’s storage capacity for oil is limited, it will be able to sustain another two months before it has to bring down production. Iran is continuing overland trade with neighbouring countries. In fact, Pakistan has opened six overland transit routes to facilitate transhipment of goods meant for Iran and shipped to Pakistani ports.

"I think that they have calculated a longer runway than I think economists or Western policymakers are anticipating," Reuters quoted Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East programme at the Chatham House thinktank in London, referring to Iran's ​leaders.

But a long period of blockade will eventually affect US companies, though America is not dependent on oil from the region. Spiralling prices, triggered by a war that most Americans don’t support, can play havoc for Republicans in the mid-term elections, slated four months down the line in November.

The war is costing American tax players, a conservative estimate by a Pentagon official puts it at around $25 billion to date. But this figure does not account for the loss of several top-of-the-line aircraft, the entire sophisticated radar system put up in airbases across the Gulf region and damage to its warship. American tax payers are being deprived of medi-care by Trump to save public finances, yet there is enough money to splash on a war that many believe is Israel’s war.Trump also needs to get permission from the US Congress to continue the war beyond 60 days. Trump went into action without getting the approval of Congress. The War Powers Resolution was passed in 1973, to curb presidential usurpation of Congressional powers to declare war. On May 1st, Trump’s 60 days expire. Yet as American analysts have pointed out, presidents have often been able to circumvent the law  which hasn’t been very successful since its passage because of its loose legal language, the numerous exceptions and qualifications, and the large number of loopholes that presidents and their advisers have worked around.

Both the US and Iran are looking for a way out but not prepared to make concessions.  The war risks reshaping Iran in ways that could ultimately make it more defiant and more dangerous.

In this war of endurance, the absence of a clear victor is perhaps the only certainty.