Congress’ long fall and RJD’s shrinking seat tally have intensified demands on both sides to end the alliance.
RJD’s stable MY vote contrasts sharply with Congress’s eroded support, fuelling disagreements over its electoral value.
A breakup could fragment Muslim votes, weaken the opposition, and send troubling signals for the INDIA bloc nationally.
Last week, Tejashwi Yadav appeared in the House for the first time after the Bihar assembly election results.
His remark in the Assembly, “We all want Bihar to develop. Not opposition versus government, the people’s welfare comes first, carried a tone of humility and an implicit acceptance of defeat. His assertion that the opposition would “fight for people’s issues even more strongly” sounded more like reassurance at a time when his own alliance is on the verge of snapping.
This sharp decline is likely a key reason behind the growing rift. Recently, Congress leader Shakeel Ahmad Khan argued that the party should move forward independently in Bihar. Explaining the context to Outlook India, he said every party reviews its losses and evaluates who benefited and who didn’t. In Congress’s review meeting in Delhi, candidates unanimously told Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge that the alliance with RJD brought no electoral advantage. The same sentiment emerged in the meeting of district presidents in Patna. When feedback consistently indicates that the coalition is unprofitable, he said, “such non-beneficial arrangements should be ended.”
The RJD holds an identical view that Congress added no value. RJD leader Mrityunjay Tiwari stated, “The party will hopefully separate. Congress offers us no advantage; rather, we lose out. They contest for our vote. They have no vote bank of their own in Bihar. RJD is considering rebuilding afresh. Our organisation and social base remain strong. We secured 1.8 crore votes this election.”
Tiwari further said the party must evaluate whether Congress even commands a vote base commensurate with the 60 seats it contests, or merely rides on RJD’s vote base.
Both parties have ruled Bihar independently in the past, Congress for nearly four decades after Independence, and the RJD (then Janata Dal) dominated through the 1990s. Congress, which was once a 71-seat, 25 per cent vote-share party in 1990, has shrunk to single-digit seats and vote share today, as its mass base has hollowed out.
Congress Declines As RJD Remains Stable
The 35-year trend is clear: Congress’s graph shows a steady, continuous decline, whereas RJD’s vote share has remained remarkably stable despite fluctuations in seat tallies.
Congress dropped from 71 seats in 1990 to just 23 seats with 11 per cent of the votes by 2000, and further down to four seats in 2010. In 2025, it has again fallen back to a near-2010 scenario, with just six seats and eight to nine per cent of the vote. Over three-and-a-half decades, its seats fell from 71 to six and its vote share from 25 per cent to 9 per cent, an almost three-fourths erosion.
By contrast, RJD (and previously Janata Dal) has seen its seat count rise and fall, but its vote share has stayed steady. Janata Dal won 122 and 167 seats, with around 25–26 per cent of the vote, in 1990–95. In 2000, RJD won 124 seats with 28 per cent of the votes. After that, its seats declined to 75, 54, 22, and roughly 25 in 2025, but its vote share remained within a stable 20–28 per cent range. In other words, despite electoral setbacks, RJD retains one of Bihar’s most durable social bases.
Alliance Fallout: Vote Fragmentation?
RJD’s core MY (Muslim–Yadav) vote remains its biggest strength. This brings up the critical question: if the alliance breaks, will this vote fragment? Notably, until the 1990s, Congress enjoyed a strong Muslim, Dalit, and upper-caste base, especially Muslim support. The rise of Lalu Prasad and Mandal politics shifted much of that base toward RJD.
Senior journalist Manikant Thakur believes that although Congress had suffered earlier when contesting alone, the current situation may be different. If the party genuinely commits to rebuilding, as the old Congress once did, rather than remaining in alliances for the lure of power, it could perform better than it does today. He argues Congress must take a decisive national-level stand and focus first on strengthening its state organisation, reviving demoralised cadres, and creating a new foundation.
According to him, many voters, including sections of the Muslim community and upper castes who once backed Congress, may return if the party restores credibility. With the BJP's growing consolidation of backwards castes, the Congress might also regain ground among the upper castes.
Thakur concludes that the split would hurt RJD more, whereas Congress would gain an opportunity to revive its traditional base of Muslims, Dalits, and upper castes over the next five years.
However, Patna University’s Professor Rakesh Ranjan emphasises the national implications. He notes that Congress has already lost most of its independent vote base in Bihar; even if it contested alone, it would still win six to seven seats. But the alliance’s collapse could fragment Muslim votes and deal a significant blow to RJD. More importantly, it would send a damaging signal to the INDIA bloc nationwide, thereby affecting alliances in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Jammu & Kashmir, and weakening the coalition before the next Lok Sabha polls.
History of Coalition In Bihar
Bihar’s two-and-a-half-decade coalition history shows that since 2000, RJD and Congress have repeatedly alternated between fighting together and separately. In 2000 and the two elections of 2005, both contested alone, and their numbers steadily declined. In 2010, fighting separately again produced their worst-ever result (RJD 22, Congress 4). In sharp contrast, the 2015 Mahagathbandhan flipped the script entirely—RJD won 80 seats and Congress 27. Even in 2020, the alliance kept the opposition relevant despite Congress’s weakness. The long-term pattern is unmistakable: separately, they weaken; together, they fundamentally alter Bihar’s political arithmetic.
For now, there is no official split, but leaders like Shakeel Ahmad Khan argue that Congress should quietly begin working independently without waiting for a formal announcement.
In the post-election atmosphere, the escalating rhetoric has cast serious doubt on the alliance’s stability. Whether they eventually part ways remains unclear. But if they do, Bihar’s political landscape will shift dramatically. A weakened opposition will suffer the most, RJD risks losing its consolidated MY base, and Congress may further dilute its already fragile organisational structure.
A formal split is still uncertain, but the signals are unmistakable that if RJD and Congress part ways, the opposition weakens, the ruling side gains, and Bihar’s political chessboard is reset once again.
