With US tariff pressure & Russia’s tilt toward China, both sides are moving to stabilise their partnership.
Moscow’s growing dependence on Beijing, and outreach to Pakistan, adds fresh discomfort for New Delhi.
Strains in India-US ties & uncertainty over the Ukraine war make their equation critical.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to India on Thursday for the annual summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have all the optics of a celebration of the historical ties between the two countries. Putin’s visit has assumed particular significance as it comes at a time of India’s trade tension with the United States and the changing equation between great powers, including the growing warmth of Russia-China relations.
New Delhi’s friendship with Moscow forged in the Cold War era has survived the turbulence of a world in flux, starting from the breakdown of the former Soviet Union to the current Ukraine war. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, like most Indians, remembers that Russia stood by India in its hour of need at a time when the US and its allies were in no mood to hear New Delhi’s side of the argument, especially when it came to Pakistan which was on the US side of the Cold War divide.
India has also stood by Russia and has withstood tremendous Western pressure over the Ukraine war. New Delhi abstained from UN Security Council resolutions critical of Moscow and offered only Prime Minister Modi’s carefully crafted advice to President Putin that “this is not an era of war”.
During President Joe Biden’s term, India could get away with lifting discounted Russian oil but Donald Trump has slapped India with a stiff 50 per cent tariff, with a substantial 25 per cent directly linked to India’s purchase of discounted Russian oil. Trump and his senior cabinet colleagues have accused India of funding Russia’s Ukraine war.
India has all but stopped the lifting of discounted Russian oil following Trump’s blunt warning to do so or face the consequence. Yet despite the drastic reduction of Russian oil imports the 50 per cent tariff on Indian imports remains in place.
What Russia thinks of India’s decision to quickly bow to Trump’s threat is not known. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “We cannot interfere in the diplomatic relations between the US and India. We understand there is pressure on India. This is the reason we have to be careful in creating an architecture of the relationship that must be free of any influence coming from any third country… We know that India values its sovereignty and defines its national interests. We admire this characteristic of India.’’
India had gained tremendously from lifting discounted Russian oil. Private companies profited handsomely from cheap Russian crude, though the benefits were not passed on to the consumers. The fear of secondary sanctions led to private companies stopping purchases.
Many analysts believe that India would gain more in the long run by hitching its wagon to the US. At one point it appeared that the Modi-government was doing just that. “In the long run, more forces bind the U.S. and India than divide them” but “the immediate future is bound to be strained,” says Aparna Pande of the Washington-based Hudson Institute.
India got a wake-up call with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Apart from the tariffs, things have not gone well with Washington since Operation Sindoor, and Trump’s claim that he was responsible for the India-Pakistan ceasefire. Moreover, Trump’s overture to Pakistan, his praise of Field Marshal Asim Munir, did not sit well with India.
“Preserving our strategic ties with Russia will remain a key objective of our foreign policy. With our problematic relations with China and new difficulties in our ties with the US, the only relationship we have with great powers that is stable and reliable is with Russia,’’ says former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal.
“Beyond that, Russia is a key partner in many areas: defence, energy, nuclear, space, raw materials etc. Close ties with Russia are a key element in maintaining our strategic autonomy,’’ Sibal adds.
Yet the strategic friendship between India and Russia, is also on test. India’s tilt towards the United States in the last twenty-five years, especially in countering China’s rise, has altered the equation somewhat. So far New Delhi has deftly managed to navigate the geopolitical and economic balancing act between Russia, its long-standing strategic partner, and its growing strategic convergence with the US.
Russia-China-Pakistan
But Russia’s dependence on China and the Russia-China geopolitical lock-in has raised alarm in some quarters in India. Despite Moscow’s enormous natural resources, the crippling sanctions imposed by the US and the West on Russia, makes it increasingly dependent on Beijing. So, when push comes to shove, can India rely on Russia is a question many are asking. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peshkov had this to offer about Russia’s growing friendship with China.
“China is also our privileged strategic partner… and we enjoy a very, very high level of cooperation with China in various fields, like with India. And yes, it’s our readiness to enhance our cooperation with China in various fields without limits,’’ and adds, “We have the same stand with India. We are ready to go as far as India is ready. And we are ready to develop our cooperation in every possible field, as far as India is ready.” In short, it is up to India.
Russia is also engaging with Pakistan which it had earlier scrupulously avoided. However, the answer lies in the changing circumstances where India too is wooing the West. Yet, there is confidence in South Block that Russia under President Putin will keep India’s interests in mind. “Russia faces an uncertain future in Ukraine and equally mercurial USA as well as a belligerent Europe. Its friendship with China is also tactical. Its ties with Pakistan are transactional and an attempt to keep the Chinese balanced in the region,’’ says former Indian diplomat Anil Wadhwa.
“It is a cliche to call the Russia India relationship time tested but in the current circumstances both need each other more than ever . India faces a transactional USA under Trump 2.0, who spares no one, friends or foes alike, on the altar of personal and family interests and a China that sings a difficult tune to India for many years now despite a recent tactical thaw and rapprochement,’’ says Wadhwa.
He is confident that the future of India-Russia relationship “will move at an even keel with new both sides looking for new avenues of cooperation”.
India has so far managed to balance its ties with both Russia and the US. But if US-Russia ties break down over Ukraine, the situation may become difficult for India.
