The Iranian regime, now at its weakest, is desperately hoping to prevent another US attack on the country.
Ordinary Iranians are fed up with the autocratic regime.
Israel, a key player in West Asia, is watching closely from the sidelines.
As Iran’s protests entered a third week and between 438 -500 citizens killed, focus shifted from the streets of Tehran to Washington, where President Donald Trump has issued stark and conflicting signals to the Islamic Republic.
Trump warned the Iranian leadership against using force on demonstrators, even as he claimed on Sunday that Tehran had reached out to him—before adding, in typical fashion, that he might still order military strikes.
"The leaders of Iran called yesterday…a meeting is being set up…They want to negotiate…we may have to act before a meeting." Does Trump want to keep Iran guessing about what is to follow and give sleepless nights to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?
On its part, Iran is simultaneously threatening the United States and as Trump revealed, reaching out to Washington for talks. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is not seeking war but is fully prepared for war,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a conference of foreign ambassadors in Tehran that was broadcast by state TV.
“We are also ready for negotiations but these negotiations should be fair, with equal rights and based on mutual respect,” he says. The question however remains is Araghchi referring to nuclear negotiations with the US, which has nothing to do with protests. Or is this because the Iranian regime, now at its weakest, is desperately hoping to prevent another US attack on the country, this time on its political leadership and is willing to reassess its nuclear stand.
Araghchi also said that Trump’s warning of military action if protests turned bloody, triggered massive action from ``terrorists’’ aimed at inviting foreign intervention in Iran’s internal affairs. There are mixed signals coming both from Washington and Tehran.
Israel, a key player in West Asia, is watching closely from the sidelines. The unfolding crisis has become a test of whether pressure, deterrence or escalation will define the next phase of Iranian protests and if Washington will indeed play a role in regime change.
The protests began with demonstrations by shop keepers at the rising cost of living. It was triggered by a further collapse of the Iranian rial two weeks ago. Disgruntled citizens who have long felt the pinch of rising inflation joined in as did women, who were in the forefront of the 2022 protests following the arrest and death in custody of Mahsa Amini, for not following the strict dress code laid down by the Iranian authorities.
However the Iranian regime has dubbed many of the protesters as traitors set up by ``foreign’’ powers and say that while the demonstrations initially were by ordinary citizens, they have been infiltrated by those at the pay of foreign powers, obviously pointing a finger at Israel. Iranians working for Israel during last June’s attacks were able to pinpoint exactly where the military leadership was stationed. Top commanders were all killed in the strikes. But there is no denying that ordinary Iranians too are fed up with the autocratic regime run by the Ayatollah and are seeking a change. The theocratic regime’s foreign policy wrecked the economy of a once prosperous oil rich nation.
Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu has long called for regime change in Iran and is hoping that Trump, a close friend and confidant, will not let this opportunity pass. Israel is now the pre-eminent power in the region. If a weakened Iranian regime is finally overthrown and a pro- American friendly government put in place, Israel’s dominance of West Asia will be guaranteed.
However, who takes over if the regime is ousted remains a concern. There is no opposition worth the name. The Supreme leader has ensured that opposition leaders are in jail or in exile.
The Shah’s son. Reza Pahlavi, is hoping to fill the void. He was named the crown prince when he was 7-years old in 1967. But the Iranian revolution of 1979, forced him into exile and he has lived out of the country since then. The majority of Iranian however has little appetite for the revival of the monarchy. The Shah dynasty is not what Iranians are looking at to replace Khamenei.
For now, the Iranian leadership, Israel and the region remain hostage to Trump’s next move. Whether Washington limits itself to rhetoric and pressure, or uses the protests as an excuse to reshape Iran’s leadership, remains unclear.
