Summary of this article
A weak Iran would be no threat to the Jewish state.
US President Trump held a telephone call with two of Iraqi Kurdistan’s top leaders on Sunday
An Iran constantly at war with its own people, would be a dream come true for Benjamin Netanyahu.
As the Israeli–US war on Iran grinds into its sixth day with no sign of de-escalation, and little evidence that regime change is within reach, a darker possibility is beginning to surface in diplomatic and intelligence circles, encouraging an uprising of Iran’s minority groups. If toppling Tehran outright appears elusive, even with the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and most of the top generals, Washington may now be hoping to weaken Iran from within.
The fear is not of a conventional invasion, but of a more dangerous strategy that risks pushing Iran down the path of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, when the toppling of Saddam Hussein unleashed years of sectarian violence and regional instability.
An uprising by the Kurds and other minorities like the Azeris, Baluchis, Arabs and Sunni Muslims scattered across Iran would help further destabilise the country. So it is no surprise that US President Donald Trump held a telephone call with two of Iraqi Kurdistan’s top leaders on Sunday. This was widely reported in the American press.
An alliance of six Iranian Kurdish groups, reportedly backed by the United States, is preparing to enter Iran to support a US-Israeli campaign to further weaken the regime. Simultaneously the US and Israeli missiles are ``softening’’ the area along the border to allow for Kurdish infiltration. The buzz is that Kurdish groups were funded and armed by the CIA since last year in preparation for just this kind of destablising role inside Iran.
Fragmentation of Iran is what Israel has long wanted. Having succeeded in getting the US involved in an attack on Iran, regime change to a more pro-Western, less orthodox and more pliant set of rulers in Tehran is still a tough proposition without boots on the ground.
The next best thing is to ensure that Iran can never again be as powerful a force as it once was. A weak Iran would be no threat to the Jewish state. A fragmented Iran, constantly at war with its own people, would be a dream come true for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Fragmentation of the Islamic Republic, breaking it apart is seen by many analysts as the ultimate strategic objective. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran has remained on the top of the hit list of both Israel and the United States.
Since the war on Gaza, Israel has established itself as the strongest military force in the region. With Iran’s allies, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, all out of the scene, the only force left to subdue is Iran. The attacks last Saturday are the culmination of a process that has been underway for several decades.
A fragmented Iran, busy with its own version of civil war, would have neither the resources nor the inclination to pose a security threat to Israel. The idea of a Jewish state stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates, has been a Zionist dream since the beginning. Israel’s military success is boosting the prospects of an expanded Jewish state among many Israelis who are backing Netanyahu’s war on Iran. US envoy to Israel Mike Huckabee has spoken of Israel’s “biblical right” to the land and has long referred to the occupied West Bank as “Judea and Samaria”. He has made little secret of his support for Israel expanding its territorial reach across West Asia. Israel has emerged stronger since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023.
Iraqi Kurds
Iraqi Kurds have several political outfits, but the two main parties are the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Masoud Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) led by Bafel Talabani. The KDP is closer to Turkiye and its leaders regularly visit Ankara for consultations. President Erdogan’s government is also said to fund the group.
The leader of the PUK, Bafel Talabani, was until recently close to Iran. Both these outfits operate from the Kurdish autonomous region within Iraq, which borders Iran. These are Iraqi Kurds, but they could play a role in getting their Kurdish brethren in Iran to mobilise. The attempt may be on, but what that leads to remains to be seen.
Iranian Kurds are less than 10 per cent of the country’s population but are not concentrated in one region. This makes mobilisation somewhat difficult, according to Talmiz Ahmad, who served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia and the UAE and knows the Middle East well. But alliances can shift easily in times of the kind of upheaval Iran is facing at the moment.
A Reuters report noted: “Iranian Kurdish militias have consulted with the United States in recent days about whether, and how, to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country,” three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
The February 2026 war therefore appears to be moving in a clear direction: either the overthrow of the Iranian political system or pushing it to the brink of collapse. While the US may not necessarily agree with Israel on every tactical detail, both share the view that the theocratic regime should not survive.
The Iranian leadership understands this clearly. Iran is facing an existential moment and will go down fighting. Iran’s strategy is not aimed at winning the war outright but at ensuring that the costs of regime change become too high for its adversaries to bear.
