Exit polls unanimously project NDA securing 133 to 167 seats, comfortably crossing the 122-seat majority mark in Bihar’s 243-member Assembly.
Mahagathbandhan expected to win 70 to 103 seats, falling significantly short of power despite Tejashwi Yadav’s aggressive campaign.
Independents and smaller parties (OTH) likely to bag only 2 to 13 seats, with no major third-front impact.
Early exit polls from the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections point to a decisive win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with projections giving the bloc a comfortable majority in the 243-member House. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) trails by a wide margin, signalling another term for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s coalition.
The surveys, conducted immediately after the conclusion of Phase 2 polling on Tuesday, which recorded a record-breaking 67.14% turnout, consistently favour the NDA, with projections ranging from 133 to 167 seats. This would secure a clear mandate for the BJP-JD(U) combine. The results come amid fierce debate over caste-count data, jobs, and development pledges.
JVC’s estimates 135–150 seats for the NDA, 88–103 for the MGB, and 3–6 for others, crediting Nitish Kumar's welfare schemes strong showings in Seemanchal and urban constituencies.
Matrize predicts a stronger outcome for the ruling coalition at 147–167 seats, with the MGB on 70–90 and others on 2–10, citing strong rural mobilisation.
People’s Insight forecasts 133–148 seats for the NDA, 87–102 for the MGB, and 3–6 for smaller players, noting the alliance’s hold over upper-caste groups and Extremely Backward Classes.
People’s Pulse places the NDA on 133–159, the MGB on 75–101, and others on 2–13, highlighting heavier female turnout as a boost to the NDA’s women-focused agenda.
Dainik Bhaskar's echoes the trend, projecting 145–160 seats for the NDA, 73–91 for the MGB, and 5–10 for others based on booth-level sampling across all phases.
P-Marg too has projected an NDA victory in the Bihar elections 2025 with 142-162 seats, 80-98 for Mahagathandhan, 1-4 on Jan Suraaj and 0-3 for others.
Exit polls are conducted by major media outlets and independent agencies as soon as voting ends. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly election, most predicted either a clear win for Tejashwi Yadav or a neck-and-neck fight, raising expectations of NDA losses. The RJD went on to claim 75 seats, edging out the BJP on 74. The NDA crossed the majority line with 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan closed at 110.
Counting is on November 14. The 66.1 per cent turnout is being read as a strong sign of public engagement. NDA leaders have hailed the projections as a mandate for vikas, while the MGB remains guarded, hoping for a late rural swing. For now, the saffron wave looks hard to stop.
