Rumours are swirling that a merger of the Nationalist Congress Party–Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP-SP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) with the Indian National Congress (INC) could be on the cards.
The two ailing regional outfits led by Sharad Pawar and Mamata Banerjee are going through one of the most difficult periods in their histories, with the NCP splitting in 2023 and the TMC facing a rebellion within its parliamentary and legislative wings.
Both parties are offshoots of the Congress. Pawar left the grand old party in 1999 over Sonia Gandhi's foreign origins, while Banerjee departed a year earlier, in 1998, arguing that the party did not adequately represent the interests of West Bengal.
The two leaders have been political behemoths in their respective states. Pawar was part of Maharashtra's governing alliance from 1999 to 2014, while Banerjee led a majority government in West Bengal from 2011 to 2026 after toppling the Left Front administration that had ruled the state for 34 years.
Now, with the rise of the BJP and its Hindutva brand of politics, the political space available to regional parties is shrinking, and both the NCP and TMC have become victims of this trend. In a bid for survival, these two regional satraps may have little choice but to rejoin hands with their former associates.
The Regional Party Crisis
Since the BJP came to power in 2014, several regional outfits have gradually been pushed to the brink. This decline has accelerated in recent years.
In Maharashtra, a split was engineered within the Shiv Sena, leading to the collapse of the Uddhav Thackeray government. Similarly, a faction led by Ajit Pawar, Sharad Pawar's nephew, broke away from the NCP.
In Bihar, despite a strong electoral performance by the Janata Dal (United), Nitish Kumar was sent to the Rajya Sabha just a year into his term, and the state subsequently got its first BJP chief minister. The JD(U), for now, appears leaderless and firmly subordinate to the saffron party.
Following the recently concluded Assembly elections, two more regional stalwarts were decimated. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the TMC suffered devastating defeats in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal respectively.
While the DMK was replaced by another regional outfit, the TVK, and continues to navigate the transition relatively steadily, the TMC is unravelling.
A group of 20 MPs broke away from the party and announced their intention to stake a claim to its name and symbol. In the Assembly, more than 58 rebel MLAs installed their own candidate as Leader of the Opposition.
Merits of an NCP-TMC-Congress Merger
Both the NCP and the TMC emerged from the Congress, possess overlapping voter bases and occupy similar political space. The parties have also remained broadly aligned since their respective splits, particularly in the case of the NCP, which has been a reliable Congress ally since 1999. The TMC, meanwhile, has at various times been part of both the NDA and the UPA, while also maintaining an independent course for extended periods.
There were rumblings among several of the eight NCP-SP MPs about a possible reunion with Ajit Pawar's faction. However, Ajit Pawar's death in an aircraft crash put those discussions on hold.
Banerjee, too, was never particularly receptive to the idea of a broad opposition alliance, but her recent drubbing in West Bengal may have altered her calculations.
The NCP-SP has already struggled with a diluted political identity following its split, a problem that could soon spread to the TMC if the rebels succeed. This would leave Banerjee facing a resurgent Left while also contending with the BJP, all while her own party struggles to hold itself together.
Although party spokespersons have denied any merger talks, several leaders have expressed interest in the idea. According to The Indian Express, Ashok Gehlot called for the "ghar wapsi" of all those who were once part of the Congress. Meanwhile, both Sanjay Raut of the Shiv Sena (UBT), who is considered close to Sharad Pawar, and Rohit Pawar of the NCP have spoken positively about the possibility of a merger.
The Challenges
The feasibility of such a merger remains subject to numerous questions. Leaders who once left the Congress have built strong political legacies and distinct identities of their own, and may find it difficult to integrate into the party's organisational structure.
They are accustomed to operating with considerable autonomy in their respective states. Furthermore, would Pawar — and especially Banerjee — be comfortable functioning under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi?
Sanjay Jha of the JD(U) recently told The Indian Express that the former West Bengal chief minister's uncompromising stance on the leadership of the INDIA bloc was one of the key reasons Nitish Kumar left the alliance ahead of the 2024 general election.
Another factor to consider is the acceptance of such a merger among grassroots party workers. The Congress and the TMC in West Bengal frequently clash over a range of political issues.
If not a formal merger, a closer association between the regional parties and the Congress may prove more achievable. For Banerjee, returning to the Congress would mean risking the distinct political identity she has spent more than two decades building.
