A new study projects global fossil fuel emissions will hit a record 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, rising 1.1% from 2024.
Despite rapid renewable energy growth, continued reliance on oil and gas is driving the increase, especially in transport and industry.
Scientists warn the trend jeopardises climate targets, urging immediate action to cut emissions and phase out fossil fuel dependence.
Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to reach an all-time high of 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, according to a new study. The rise — about 1.1% higher than in 2024 — comes despite the rapid global expansion of renewable energy.
Researchers say the increase is being driven by continued dependence on oil and gas, particularly in transportation and industrial sectors. While emission growth in major economies like China and India has slowed thanks to renewable adoption, it has not been enough to counterbalance global fossil fuel use.
Scientists warn that the world remains far from meeting its climate goals. To limit global warming below 2°C, emissions must not only peak but start to decline sharply within this decade. The report urges governments to accelerate clean energy transitions and phase down coal and oil investments to prevent further escalation of the climate crisis.
The International Energy Agency warns in another new report, which tracks the energy transition and global emissions, that under the current policies countries around the world are following to meet their energy needs, the planet will warm nearly 3 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Even as nations follow through with more aggressive clean energy policies that they have indicated they intend to pursue — with coal and oil demand peaking by 2030 — warming would still be close to 2.5 degrees, according to the report.
That rapid pace of warming plays out despite a scale-up of renewable energy around the globe and a surge in electric vehicle sales.
Driving warming down to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 at this point, according to the IEA report, would require considerable changes in the types of energy the world uses, as well as mass deployment of nascent carbon capture technologies that have so far proven technologically difficult, politically contentious and extremely costly to scale up.
And recent years have seen record-high fossil fuel emissions, leaving some experts hesitant to predict a peak in output, even amid this shift to other sources of clean energy.
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