No Victors Yet

As for Tamil Nadu, the crisis has hit a plateau and the farmers have been temporarily appeased. The crops have been saved in the Cauvery delta and precious water is available—so what if it's only 6 tmc ft. Says S. Ranganathan, president of the Cauvery Delta Farmers' Association: "For the wilting crops in the rice bowl, every drop of water counts."

But this is by no means the end of the problem. A three-member expert team appointed by the Centre is assessing the water situation and crop status in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. They have carried out aerial and field surveys and their report will form the basis of the guidelines for water sharing that Rao hopes to formulate and present before the two states. Till then the dispute has been put on hold.

This suits Karnataka just fine. While agreeing to release water, the state also decided to boycott the proceedings of the tribunal till the national water policy guidelines are framed. Karnataka believes that "objective guidelines" will have to be followed by any "subjective" tribunal in any further arbitration. As for Rao, he has given a written assurance that a decision would be taken in early February.

The guidelines are expected to arm Karnataka when the Supreme Court hears arguments over the constitution of a committee to implement the tribunal's interim order ordering Karnataka to release 205 tmc ft of water annually on a week-to-week basis.

The Supreme Court will consider a petition filed by Tamil Nadu last August for the constitution of the interim award implementation and monitoring committees. The state had first made the demand for the setting up of the two committees in July 1992 when Jayalalitha went on a four day fast. The Centre initially gave in Tamil Nadu's demand but backed out after Karnataka resisted the move. Favourable monsoons in 1993 and 1994 kept Tamil Nadu's demand for the two committees under wraps but it surfaced in 1995 when there was a water shortage.

Karnataka hopes that the national water policy guidelines will come before the Supreme Court passes any order on the petition filed by Tamil Nadu. Karnataka will thereby have the opportunity to demand the deferring of the tribunal's proceedings till the guidelines are notified. With general elections just around the corner, this strategy is expected to buy time for Deve Gowda and muddy the dispute further.

It was after having decided on its line of action that Karnataka took the conscious decision to release the water. Therefore, it was not the fear of riots alone that prompted Deve Gowda to bow to the recommendation of the Prime Minister. There was nothing to gain by being defiant. While the chief minister claims that he was acting to "maintain cordial interstate relations", the truth is that he was being pragmatic. Says H.K. Patil, senior Congressman and leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council: "It was the best possible decision. We could not have possibly taken on the tribunal, the Supreme Court and the Prime Minister."

With the state government not supportive of any agitation and all the Opposition parties standing by Deve Gowda, the backlash to the release of the water was tame. The violent reaction in the Cauvery basin districts of Mandya, Mysore and Hassan was easy to control since the Vokkaliga community, to which Deve Gowda belongs, holds sway in these regions. With educational institutions closed, prohibitory orders imposed in the sensitive areas and the Rapid Action Force and the CRPF deployed, there was very little trouble. This was a far cry from the ugly riots that broke out in December 1991 over the Cauvery issue, resulting in the loss of 30 lives and considerable damage to property.

Across the border in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK is gloating over its victory. But Jayalalitha has not sought the support of Opposition parties. The Congress, which supported Rao's role as arbitrator, has been dubbed a "betrayer" of the "water cause" and the chief minister has been criticised for sidelining Opposition leaders who were part of the delegation which went to meet the Prime Minister in Delhi. Points out V. Gopalsamy of the MDMK:  "The self-respect of the state has been sold. Jayalalitha treated us badly in Delhi." DMK leader M. Karunanidhi is more caustic: "Jayalalitha has lowered the Tamil self-respect and has allowed the Centre to trample over it." 

But despite this tirade, Jayalalitha did manage to bolster her image as the saviour of the Tamils that she has been cultivating. As the common man sees it, she has managed to bring water to the state. This is what the AIADMK has been trumpeting, contrary to what the Opposition says.

The party has every reason to be jubilant over the "victory", especially since it has come so close to election time. January has been a rather good month for Jayalalitha. Her trusted adviser and controversial chief secretary Hari Bhaskar's term has been extended for the third time. The bail of the nephew of her confidante Sasikala, JJ TV's boss T.V.V. Bhaskaran, has also been extended. And, of course, a little of the Cauvery water has been released.

It remains to be seen as to how much more water Tamil Nadu will manage to win from Karnataka. The AIADMK will definitely milk the Cauvery issue to the maximum during its election campaign. However, this does not necessarily mean water for the farmers of Tamil Nadu.