Maharashtra: Can MVA Play A Pivotal Role In 2024 Elections?

On June 29, 2022, Uddhav Thackeray stepped down from his post as the Chief Minister of Maharashtra following a nine-day political crisis in the state. He suffered a setback from the inside as Eknath Shinde, a charismatic leader from Thane, and a close ally of his father Balasaheb Thackeray, rebelled against him after the Maharashtra Legislative Council Elections. Shinde was not alone in expressing dissatisfaction; he was first joined by 11 other legislative members and later followed by 29 other Shiv Sena MLAs. A day after Thackeray resigned, Shinde came back to Mumbai. Securing support from Devendra Fadnavis-led Bharatiya Janata Party, he was sworn in as the Chief Minister and Fadnavis was assigned the role of the Deputy Chief Minister. 

The political crisis which ended with Shinde assuming power not only led Shiv Sena to break into two factions but also cast the future of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in an uncertain light. A tripartite, shared by three ideologically different political parties, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and Indian National Congress (INC), emerged out of the post-2019 assembly election complications. 

Maha Vikas Aghadi government: From Birth To Separation

On November 28, 2019, Uddhav Thackeray took oath as the 18th Chief Minister of Maharashtra. Despite being the single largest party in the house, the BJP had to sit on the opposition benches as its alliance with Shiv Sena broke apart over a tussle regarding the chief minister’s post. The opportunity was seized by NCP and Congress as they both decided to back Thackeray with their MLAs. A new coalition called Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was born with Thackeray being the Chief Minister and Ajit Pawar being the Deputy Chief Minister. 

The MVA ruled Maharashtra for three years. During this stint, the coalition was subjected to massive challenges like the Covid-19 pandemic and multiple controversies such as the Palghar mob lynching. Both these issues invited criticism for Thackeray; however, the latter asserted his intention to carry forward the legacy of his father's hardline 'Hindutva.' However, these things had little effect on the unity of the coalition or the subsequent governance, 'guided' as it was by a veteran like Sharad Pawar at the time. Despite headwinds and criticisms, the MVA government remained intact until the exit of Shinde took place. However, things started changing once the Aghadi lost power and started opposing the Shinde-led government. 

The Pawar Struggle

On May 1, 2023, Sharad Pawar decided to step down as the NCP president. A few days later, Pawar chose Supriya Sule, his daughter, as his political heir appointing her as the working president of NCP along with Praful Patel. Surprisingly, Sule was also assigned the charge of Maharashtra, which was earlier being handled by Ajit Pawar, Sharad Pawar’s nephew. 

Multiple analysts believe that choosing Sule and Praful over Pawar can be a result of the deteriorating relationship between the nephew and uncle. In 2019, Ajit Pawar was sworn in as the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra with Devendra Fadnavis, who became Chief Minister. The coalition lasted for only two hours, though it resulted in a deficit of trust between the uncle and the nephew. Cutting out his nephew hence became inevitable for Sharad Pawar. However, some of the party leaders believe that this could adversely impact the organisation as nephew Pawar’s aggressive leadership has found support among the new guards of NCP. Moreover, Pawar has the support of 40 out of 56 MLAs in the state, which can cause bigger trouble for the party. 

Though nephew Pawar has dismissed the claims of switching sides multiple times and put the blame on the media, his actions raise suspicion. His resignation as the leader of the opposition in the Maharashtra Assembly and the absence of his picture from the party posters have triggered controversy once again. In addition to this, Pawar was absent from the National Women and Youth Wing meeting in Delhi. Though, Praful Patel claimed that Pawar avoided the meeting since it was only for women and youth, his marked absence is still under aspersion. 

Pawar also got indulged in a heated war of words with Shiv Sena (UBT) spokesperson and Rajya Sabha member Sanjay Raut. It started with Raut spitting on the ground in front of the press after hearing the name of Eknath Shinde’s son. Confronting that, Pawar said everyone needs to maintain decorum while speaking about others in politics. Responding to him, Raut also referred to some comments that Pawar had made a decade ago. 

The Congress Dilemma 

If Ajit Pawar offers discomfort on one side, then on the other side is the Congress. In fact, the point of contention has been Rahul Gandhi, in this case. His comments on Vinayak Damodar Savarkar attracted criticism from the coalition partners. A few days after the parliamentarian called Savarkar an apologist to the British government, Uddhav Thackeray warned him about criticising Savarkar. Echoing Thackeray’s thought, Sanjay Raut, the Rajya Sabha member of Shiv Sena (UBT), said that he would meet Gandhi in person and try to convince him to avoid using Savarkar’s name. 

Not only Shiv Sena but NCP’s actions also triggered speculations. Amid the Adani-Hindenburg issue, Sharad Pawar had two hours of meeting with the industrialist. A PTI report claimed that Pawar praised Adani in his autobiography 'Lok Maze Saangati' by qualifying him as a down-to-earth and simple man. He even raised questions on the motives of Hindenburg and claimed Adani Group was being targeted. Quickly reacting to this, Jairam Ramesh said that while NCP is entitled to their opinion, 19 like-minded opposition parties believe that Gautam Adani is closely linked to Narendra Modi. The tussle between NCP and Congress also came to light when Ashok Chavan, a senior Congress leader, said that NCP is BJP’s B team in the Karnataka election. 

All Roads Lead To Patna?

Keeping all the developments in mind, it can be assumed that MVA is not in a very convincing position ahead of the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha 2024 polls. The war of words, the tiffs and ideological dilemmas are making it difficult for the MVA to be a formidable opposition in Maharashtra. Even Sharad Pawar himself expressed his doubts over the unity of MVA. At an event in Amravati, Pawar said, "Today, we are a part of Maha Vikas Aghadi, and we are willing to work together. But the desire alone is not always enough. The allotment of seats, whether there are any problems or not, has not been done yet. So how can I tell you about this?”

However, leaders like Sanjay Raut, Ajit Pawar and Maharashtra Congress President Nana Patole claimed that the unity of the MVA will remain intact. The three parties started taking part in the seat-sharing process as well. Ashok Chavan this week also met Ajit Pawar to discuss the present scenario of Maharashtra politics. 

In this context, the recent opposition unity meeting in Patna can be deemed extremely important for the future of MVA. With the presence of Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray, Rahul Gandhi, Supriya Sule, Aditya Thackeray and Sanjay Raut, it seemed that MVA would fight together in the coming elections. Despite expressing concerns over the MVA’s future, Pawar met Rahul Gandhi and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge to discuss opposition unity. Now time will tell whether MVA can bear the fruits of its efforts.