'Big Two' have succeeded 'Big Three' era of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have emerged as dominant forces in men's singles tennis
Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton carry home hopes at US Open
The era of the 'Big Three' in tennis is over, but ahead of the 2025 US Open, the ATP Tour is being dominated by a new 'Big Two'.
With Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal retiring and Novak Djokovic's powers waning in the twilight of his career, a host of players might have fancied their chances of grand slam success.
Instead, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have emerged as a dominant duo. Should either player lift the trophy in New York City on September 7, they will have split the last eight major crowns between them, reaching two years of supremacy.
They would be just the second pair to achieve that feat in the men's game in the Open Era, after Federer and Nadal did so in 2006 and 2007.
Can anyone break their stranglehold on major glory at Flushing Meadows?
The US Open has not had an American men's singles champion since Andy Roddick in 2002, but in Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton, home fans may have a couple of viable contenders to get behind this year.
Here, using Opta insights, we run through the biggest stories that could unfold in the men's singles draw.
Is a Sinner-Alcaraz hat-trick in store?
While Alcaraz has five grand slam titles to Sinner's four overall, the Italian is 2-1 up on his rival in 2025, capturing the Australian Open and Wimbledon crowns.
The world's top two players have done battle in the last two major finals, with Alcaraz saving three match points to beat Sinner in a five-set epic at Roland-Garros, before the Italian earned revenge in four sets at SW19.
They could now become just the second pair in the Open Era to face off in three consecutive men's singles grand slam finals, with Nadal and Djokovic doing battle in four straight finals between Wimbledon in 2011 and the French Open in 2012.
Sinner and Alcaraz have also faced off in two ATP Masters 1000 finals this year, with both going Alcaraz's way.
The Spaniard triumphed in straight sets in the Italian Open showpiece in May, then Sinner was forced to retire due to illness after 23 minutes of the Cincinnati Open final earlier this week.
Sinner also withdrew from the new-look mixed doubles event at Flushing Meadows after that retirement, saying he needed the additional recovery time ahead of the singles draw.
The dominance of Sinner and Alcaraz spans across every surface and every top-level event.
They are just the fifth pair since the Tour's inception to meet in ATP-level finals on all three surfaces in a single season, after Boris Becker and Stefan Edberg (1990), Federer and Nadal (2006), Nadal and Djokovic (2011) and Federer and Djokovic (2015).
Over the last two years, meanwhile, there have been 16 ATP-level events to feature both Sinner and Alcaraz, and they have won 15 of those tournaments between them (eight for Sinner, seven for Alcaraz).
The only exception was the 2024 Madrid Open, where both players suffered quarter-final exits as Andrey Rublev beat Felix Auger Aliassime in the final.
Perhaps most concerningly for the rest of the Tour, neither Sinner nor Alcaraz look likely to slow down in the coming years.
They have already become just the fifth duo in the Open Era to meet in four or more ATP-level finals in a single season before turning 25 years old.
John McEnroe and Ivan Lendl did so in 1938, with Becker and Edberg (1990), Federer and Nadal (2006) and Nadal and Djokovic (2011) the previous pairs to achieve that feat.
Federer and Nadal met five times in 2006 before Nadal and Djokovic repeated the trick in 2011.
With the Shanghai Masters and the Paris Masters still to come in 2025 after the US Open, there is every chance Sinner and Alcaraz break new ground and meet in as many as seven finals in a single calendar year.
Sinner opens against Vit Kopriva and could face Jack Draper in the quarter-finals, while Alcaraz begins against home hope Reilly Opelka and may have to beat another in the last eight, in the form of Shelton. Should he make the semis, Djokovic could stand in his way.
Their rivalry already warrants discussion as one of the greatest in modern tennis history, and given their respective ages – Sinner turned 24 last week and Alcaraz is 22 – there is plenty more to come.
Those with tickets to the men's singles final at Arthur Ashe Stadium on September 7 will hope to see another epic duel between the sport's undoubted top two.
Fritz and Shelton carry home hopes
But what if the unthinkable happens and Sinner and Alcaraz both fall short?
Perhaps that might mean an end to the longest-ever drought for American men at Flushing Meadows.
It has been 22 years since Roddick beat Juan Carlos Ferrero in the US Open showpiece to win his one and only major title.
He was the second home victor in as many editions after Pete Sampras' 2002 title, while Andre Agassi had won the event for the second time in 1999.
But it has been a tale of heartache for home players in the men's singles since then. Agassi and Roddick another final apiece, in 2005 and 2006 respectively, but both were beaten by Federer during his run of five straight titles at Flushing Meadows.
Fritz then ended the United States' 18-year wait for another men's singles finalist last year, also becoming the first American man to reach any grand slam showpiece since 2009 – when Roddick lost to Federer at Wimbledon – but he was swept aside in straight sets by Sinner.
Before the USA's current drought, there had never been a span of more than five years without a home men's singles champion at the US Open.
The previous longest drought was between 1985 and 1989, which Sampras ended by overcoming Agassi in an all-American affair in 1990 (Lendl was competing for Czechoslovakia when he won three straight editions between 1985 and 1987).
But there are reasons to suggest that Fritz and Shelton are the 'best of the rest'.
When Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic all withdrew from the Canadian Open, it was Shelton that took advantage as he fought back to beat Karen Khachanov for his first ATP Masters 1000 crown.
At 22 years old, Shelton became the youngest American man to win an ATP Masters 1000 event since a 21-year-old Roddick triumphed in Miami in 2004.
Shelton should be battle-hardened by his run in Toronto, where he beat four top-20 opponents including Fritz, becoming the youngest American man to do so at a single event since Sampras (22 years 200 days) at Indian Wells in 1994.
Shelton also made the semi-finals at the Australian Open and the quarter-finals at Wimbledon, losing to Sinner on both occasions, and he also has experience of going deep at Flushing Meadows after losing to Djokovic in the last four two years ago.
Like Shelton, Fritz has been steadily building experience at the grand slams, going to the quarter-finals or further at five of the last eight majors.
While he disappointed at the Australian Open and Roland-Garros this year, the 27-year-old proved a stern semi-final opponent for Alcaraz at Wimbledon, and his consistency at ATP Masters 1000 events marks him out as a real threat.
Since Shanghai's inception in 2009, Fritz is the only player from outside Europe to reach the quarter-finals at all nine events at that level, though his only such title came at Indian Wells in 2022.
Fritz is something of a late bloomer, having needed 33 main-draw appearances to reach a grand slam final. Only David Ferrer (42), Stanislas Wawrinka (36) and Kevin Anderson (34) have taken more to reach their first men's singles final at a major in the Open Era.
But only Alcaraz (54) and Alexander Zverev (43) have more ATP-level wins than Fritz (38) so far this year, and Shelton is fifth on that list with 35 (Alex de Minaur has 37).
The 2024 US Open saw American finalists in both the men's and women's singles events, but neither were successful as Jessica Pegula joined Fritz in defeat, going down to Aryna Sabalenka.
Serena Williams (three times), Sloane Stephens and Coco Gauff have all got over the line at Flushing Meadows since US tennis fans toasted a home champion in the men's draw.
But with Shelton and Fritz leading the charge, they could have a couple of challengers to get behind.
Djokovic still chasing all-time record
Two years ago, Djokovic joined Margaret Court in the record books by sealing his 24th grand slam singles title at Flushing Meadows.
But his hopes of surpassing Court to become the outright record holder have been frustrated by the brilliance of Sinner and Alcaraz.
Djokovic's current seven-tournament title drought at the slams is his longest since 2011. Having won his first such crown at the 2008 Australian Open, the Serbian failed to win any of the next 11 majors, including a defeat to Nadal in the 2010 US Open final.
But he bounced back in spectacular fashion the following year, winning three of the four majors to put himself on the path to greatness.
However, his prospects of snapping this ongoing streak may rely on a slice of luck going his way.
Djokovic reached the semi-finals at the Australian Open, Roland-Garros and Wimbledon. But a muscle injury forced him to retire in Melbourne, and he was outclassed by Sinner in straight sets at the latter two events.
Djokovic has won the US Open on four occasions and another triumph would see him match the Open Era record of five titles, jointly held by Federer, Sampras and Jimmy Connors.
But having been seeded seventh, the 38-year-old may need to conquer both Sinner and Alcaraz to claim his place in the record books.
Djokovic has lost each of his last five head-to-head meetings with Sinner, only taking one set off the Italian in those matches – in a four-set loss in the 2024 Australian Open semi-finals.
His record against Alcaraz is more encouraging, having won five of their seven matches since the start of 2023, including the last two – the gold-medal contest at the Paris Olympics and a quarter-final at this year's Australian Open.
That will be a source of hope for Djokovic, as he has landed on the Spaniard's side of the draw, with Learner Tien his first-round opponent.
However, Alcaraz's two victories over Djokovic during that time both came in Wimbledon finals (2023 and 2024), and the Serbian may be short on match-practice, having not played a single singles event since Wimbledon.
Djokovic has proven time and again that he can never be ruled out, though, and he appears determined to capture that elusive 25th major before considering retirement.
