Italy finished second in Group I with 18 points, behind Norway (24)
The Azzurri have failed to qualify directly for three consecutive World Cups
Italy will be in Pot 1 for the playoff draw, scheduled for November 20 in Zurich
Italy's hopes of securing automatic qualification for the FIFA World Cup 2026 ended with a crushing 1-4 defeat to Norway in Milan on Sunday. Pio Esposito gave the hosts an early lead in the 11th minute, but Norway owned the San Siro fixture -- Erling Haaland struck twice within two minutes, on either side of goals from Antonio Nusa and Jorgen Strand Larsen.
Effectively pitted against Norway for the top spot, which guarantees a direct ticket to the Finals, Italy were always playing catch-up to Haaland & Co in Group I. After a 0-3 defeat on the opening matchday in Oslo, Gennaro Gattuso's men needed a miracle to overturn an astronomical goal difference, at least by nine goals, in their final group match. Yet, they lost 1-4 at home.
Group I final standings: 1. Norway (24 points), qualified as group winners; 2. Italy (18), enter playoffs as group runners-up; 3. Israel (12), eliminated; 4. Estonia (4), eliminated; 5. Moldova (1), eliminated.
This marks the third consecutive time that the four-time champions have failed to qualify directly, and now they are forced into the European play-offs -- a route that has twice ended in bitter disappointment.
Back-to-Back World Cup Misses
In the qualifying campaign for the 2018 World Cup, Italy finished second in the six-team Group G with seven wins, two draws, and one defeat, behind Spain. They then faced Sweden in a two-legged play-off.
A 1-0 defeat in Stockholm, thanks to a 61st-minute Jakob Johansson goal, followed by a goalless draw in Milan, meant Italy missed the World Cup for the first time in 60 years.
Four years later, the story repeated itself with even more heartbreak. After finishing behind Switzerland in their group, undefeated Italy (four wins, four draws) entered the play-offs and were stunned by North Macedonia in a single-leg Patch C semi-final at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo.
An Aleksandar Trajkovski injury-time goal (90+2') consigned the heavy favourites to a 0-1 defeat and absence from football's biggest stage.
Can the Azzurri Avoid a Third Straight World Cup Absence?
Now, Italy, having finished second in Group I, are guaranteed a place in the play-offs. But given their recent qualification history, the pressure is immense. One more slip could mean a third straight failed World Cup qualification campaign.
If such a thing were to come to pass, it would be a staggering prospect for a nation with such a storied football legacy. The Blues were present in 18 of the 22 previous tournament finals, finishing in the top four eight times: four wins, two runners-up, one third-place, and one fourth-place.
They were also the first to defend the FIFA World Cup, winning back-to-back titles in 1934 and 1938, before lifting the crown in 1982 and 2006.
FIFA World Cup 2026 UEFA Play-Off Format Explained for Italy
With the FIFA World Cup 2026 expanding to 48 teams, UEFA (Europe) has been allocated 16 spots, 12 of which go to group winners. The remaining four are decided through play-offs involving the 12 group runners-up and four top-performing UEFA Nations League group winners who didn't finish in the top two of their qualifying group.
These 16 teams are split into four paths, each featuring two semi-finals and a final, all single-leg matches. The winners of each path will earn a ticket to the World Cup in Canada, Mexico and the United States of America next summer.
The European playoff draw is scheduled for Thursday, November 20, in Zurich, Switzerland. Italy would be one of the top seeds, in Pot 1, thanks to their superior FIFA ranking, and would play a single-leg semifinal at home against a fourth-seeded team (among the four best group winners of the UEFA Nations League 2024-25), from Pot 4.
If Italy, currently ranked ninth in the world, win their playoff match, they will face opponents from Pot 2 or Pot 3.
Playoff semi-finals and finals are scheduled for March 26 and 31 next year, respectively, while the World Cup kicks off on June 11.
