Summary of this article
Scenarios explained for IND-W's path to the knockout phase
India still have a chance despite losing both their games
India play Chinese Taipei at 2:30 PM IST on Tuesday, Mar 10
India women face an all-important last group match at the AFC Women's Asian Cup 2026 on Tuesday against the Chinese Taipie with the a victory being the only prerogative. Moreover, the hopes of qualifying for the FIFA Women's World Cup 2027 also hinges on it.
India have lost both their games in the Asian Cup. They lost to Vietnam via a second-half stoppage time winner to lose 1-2 whereas Japan thumped Amelia Valverde's side 0-11.
However, all hopes will be crushed of Vietnam don't lose to Japan. Here's a scenario for the Blue Tigresses for their upcoming group game against Chinese Taipei:
India's Aim Against Chinese Taipei:
If Japan beat Vietnam, the plan will be simple for India. Amelia Valverde's side do win by two or more goals, they finish second in the group and could China in the quarter-finals in Perth on Saturday.
However, if India beat Chinese Taipei by two or more goals and Vietnam lose to Japan, then India, Vietnam and Chinese Taipei will be tied up on three points each. In such a scenario, the results amongst these teams will be considered.
So, if India win 2-0, then they would have amassed three goals and conceded one in games between the teams that have tied on points. Chinese Taipei would have scored one and conceded two which could see them finish bottom while Vietnam would have scored two and conceded two, meaning a third-place finish. In such a case, Vietnam could find a place in the knockouts.
What If India Win 1-0?
A rare occasion but if India do win 1-0 they would still exit unless Japan thrash Vietnam 11-0 or more. A complex situation for the Blue Tigresses if they do win 1-0 assuming Japan do not win by 11 0r more goals against Vietnam then the likes of India, Chinese Taipei and Vietnam will be tied on points and goal difference. The next consideration would be the goal difference where the Blue Tigresses will be behind Vietnam.
If India win by one or more goals, they would qualify because, the tie-break between the three teams would be in India's favour based on goals scored in the matches between the three tied teams.
