An opinion poll conducted by Outlook-MDRA found that the Vajpayee government’s fall has not generated the expected sympathy wave for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Local factors have precluded this—a majority of 63% are unhappy with the state BJP government’s performance; 57% respondents feel Kalyan Singh should go. The poll suggests an overall erosion of 4.5% in the BJP’s vote base.
Methodology : The poll, conducted on may11- 12, covered six parliamentary constituencies in the four major regions of UP. The1,200 voters spoken to represented the entire renge of the state's electorate vis-a-visage, caste, sex ,religion and rural-urban mix.
- Ten per cent swing in favour of Congress
- No sympathy wave for BJP
- More Muslims to vote for Congress than for Samajwadi Party
Should Kalyan Singh be replaced as Chief Minister?
Yes : 57%
No : 30%
Don't know/Can't say :13%
Are you satisfied with the performance of the BJPgovt in UP?
Yes : 30%
No : 63%
Don't Know/Can't say :7%
Which party will benefit from the fall of the govt?
BJP : 23%
Congress : 24%
BSP : 11%
SP : 7%
Others : 8%
None : 8%
Don't know/Can't say : 19%
Which party do you think can provide a stable govt?
BJP & allies : 25%
Congress &allies : 36%
Third Front & allies : 4%
Don't know/Can't say : 31%
Others : 4%
Which party has improved its position?
BJP : 32%
Congress : 25%
BSP : 12%
SP : 13
Others : 3%
Don't know/Can't say : 15%
Will a BSP-Congress combine attract Muslim voters?
Yes :39%
No : 22%
Don't know/Can't say : 39%
Do you think Congress chances have improved ordeclined?
Improved : 41%
Declined : 25%
Same : 14%
Don't know/Can't say : 20%
Which party is best placed to take on the BJP ?
Congress : 35%
SP : 35%
BSP : 12%
Don't know/Can't say : 18%
Voting Shift February 1998 elctions to May 1999
BJP : -4.5%
Congress : 10%
BSP : -1.6%
SP : -5.8%
Movement of Muslim voters (96-99)
SP
In 1998 : 118%
In 1999 : 60%
Congress
In 1998 : 104
In1999 : 300
