THE Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is making fresh attempts to bring round the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and some Bodo groups to the negotiating table.
This, despite the fact that it recently extended the tenure of the Unified Command: the army, which began its anti-insurgency operations in the state on January 20, will continue its drive for three more months.
The AGP's woo-ULFA efforts will go on side by side. Chief Minister P.K. Mahanta has announced that the government is willing to talk to the group outside India, provided the Centre agrees, thereby acceding to one of the conditions set by ULFA. On April 24, Mahanta told a gathering at his constituency Nagaon: "We have no objection if the ULFA wants to hold talks in a third country."
Mahanta's declaration is significant because a review meeting of the police top brass and home department officials, chaired by the chief minister, decided that an earlier offer made to the rebels should be reiterated. The earlier offer: the government would suspend the ongoing army operations on an experimental basis, provided the rebels agreed to talk. Mahanta's olive branch sparked off speculation of a breakthrough with the recalcitrant group.
There is no reaction from the ULFA, though. In the past, the outfit had rejected all offers of talks outright. What then forced Mahanta to extend another truce offer? Although Mahanta has fully backed the army in its current operations, he is aware that the popular opinion is against the army's presence in the state. The ULFA has managed to paint the ruling party as being no different from the earlier Congress government insofar as its dependence on the army is concerned. Although some of the ministers close to Mahanta have come out strongly against the ULFA, the average party worker has not been able to convince the people of the need to keep the army.
With the state police unable to tackle the militants, Mahanta is left with no alternative but to depend on the army. The only other option is to initiate talks and hence the latest overture. The chief minister also knows several organisations, including the All-Assam Students' Union (AASU) and the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuva Chattra Parishad (AJYCP), have been demanding the army's ouster. The AASU recently said: "The state government should take a political initiative to resolve the insurgency problem by withdrawing the army." It also appealed to the rebels to shun violence and create a conducive atmosphere for talks. The AJYCP,another student body, called on both sides to give up "armed confrontation."
Given such a clamour, Mahanta knows the longer he continues with army operations, the greater the resentment against his coalition will be. As organisations like the AASU never tire of pointing out, the ruling combine had promised to withdraw the army as soon as it came to power. Nothing of the sort happened. Instead, Mahanta went ahead with the Unified Command system, which according to a top army general, has been effective.
Says Lt Gen. R.K. Sawhney, who heads the operations of the Unified Command: "In the last three months, we have been able to create a body which has been able to meet the challenges. There has been a total coordination among all the forces and a synergy has been achieved." He said the intelligence sharing among the different forces—the army, the paramilitary forces and the state police—has also improved. Nearly 300 hardcore ULFA cadres and Bodo insurgents have been arrested since the January raids. Over 120 weapons were also seized in the period.
Despite these arrests, the ULFA is far from crushed. Several of its cadres are holed up inside Bhutan just across the border from lower Assam districts. Recent intelligence reports also suggest that the ULFA has been extorting money despite the army vigil. The outfit has reportedly chalked out plans to levy annual taxes on people, much in the style of its counterparts in Nagaland and Manipur. Says its publicity secretary Mithinga Daimary: "The extension of the Unified Command was to be expected. We are least bothered. We will not sit idle and will continue our military operations."
The ULFA, therefore, looks in no mood to compromise. Says Ajit Kumar Bhuyan, editor of Asomiya Pratidin, and chairman of the human rights group, the Manab Adhikar Sangram Samity: "If the chief minister is sincere about the efforts, why doesn't he pressurise the Centre to accept the ULFA's proposal? Instead, the state government has extended the Unified Command's term. With such contradictory stands, it is futile to expect a breakthrough." Prime Minister I.K. Gujral has told an AGP delegation that he would call Mahanta to Delhi to work out a peace strategy. Only a combined effort by the Centre and the state government will perhaps end the stalemate and give the Mahanta government something to talk about when it completes a year in office on May 15.
