Fist Over Hand

If the Solapur and Ernakulam bypolls were the trailer, the assembly polls in November and next year's general elections will be no cakewalk for the Congress. Party chief Sonia Gandhi has already admitted the twin debacles in the supposedly safe seats were "a setback". Both Solapur and Ernakulam are traditional Congress bastions. But in the first, ally Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) was working for its rival and in the latter it was a Congress vs Congress affair—the K. Karunakaran faction openly campaigned against the official party candidate. In fact, things have come to such a pass that on October 1 the Karunakaran group of 23 MLAs met and asked that chief minister A.K. Antony be sacked by November 19 (Indira Gandhi's birthday).

The Solapur LS seat was lost due to Sharad Pawar's alleged machinations, backing the Sena-BJP candidate Pratapsinh Mohite-Patil. The latter, incidentally, is the brother of NCP leader and PWD minister in the S.C. Shinde cabinet, Vijaysinh Mohite-Patil. Pawar even admitted there was some "confusion" among NCP workers because of loyalties to the Patil family. Whatever the reason, Congress nominee Anandrao Deokate, a minister in the Shinde government who had vacated his assembly seat to clear the way for the CM's entry into the state legislature, was crushed by over 1.2 lakh votes.

Equally humiliating was the defeat in Ernakulam. And it's come as a double whammy for the Congress in Kerala. Karunakaran's ultimatum literally puts the high command in a bind. They can't afford to let him go, nor can they cow down to his demands and endanger Antony's coalition government. To make matters worse, the Left parties have suddenly discovered virtues in their once much-reviled foe, the strategy being to exploit the internal contradictions in the 'bourgeois' party. "We don't go by individuals, we judge issues on merit," said CPI(M) state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan on the sidelines of a central committee meet in Delhi last week, going on to add that the party would give outside support to "an alternate government". Karunakaran has reportedly opened a line to Sharad Pawar also. Maharashtra forest minister Subash Thackeray (NCP) had visited Kochi a few days before the elections, ostensibly on a pilgrimage, and met the leader's loyalists at a city hotel. What transpired is anybody's guess. Ex-MP P.C. Chacko, a Karunakaran ally who is close to the Maratha strongman, denies any such meeting but admits "the party is pushing Karunakaran to go the Pawar way (quitting the Congress)".

The election itself had turned to something of a farce. An interplay of various factors led to Antony candidate M.O. John's defeat. Furious over the CM's bluntspeak that minorities (read Muslims) cornered government benefits through collective bargaining, the community dealt a blow. Karunakaran accentuated the atmosphere of pique. The Left played it up and reaped the benefit. Still, the Left-backed independent candidate Sebastian Paul won in the Congress stronghold by only 22,000 votes, which shows that if the party had stood together it might have won. When contacted, Antony said: "My calculations went awry. I accept the verdict." aicc general secretary Ahmed Patel did ring up Karunakaran to convey 10, Janpath's displeasure but it seems to have had little effect. Incidentally, the high command's L.P. Sahi panel is to probe the poll indiscipline after October 6.

The Congress' allies in Kerala aren't happy either. The Muslim League's all-India general secretary E. Ahmed, who's close to Karunakaran, is pressing party supremo Panakkad Shihab Thangal to end the honeymoon with Antony. He's already come out saying that the CM's anti-minority stance cost the Congress the election. Stoking the brew is the splinter Kerala Congress factions, led by irrigation minister T.M. Jacob and transport minister R. Balakrishna Pillai, who have also come out in support of Karunakaran. Antony has so far not opened up on the disciplinary action front, maintaining that it does not solve anything. But he is very clearly on the backfoot.

Meanwhile, Sonia Gandhi has called for a rethink on the party's strategy in the two states. For the Congress, it is truly time to introspect.