KARGIL may be over, but its done enough for the BJP . According to the second and final Outlook-CMS (Centre for Media Studies) pre- poll survey, the BJP -led 24- party National Democratic Alliance is cruising to victory with a tally of 319 to 329 seats in the 13th Lok Sabha. Unless theres a spectacular turnaround in the fortunes of the Congress and its allies, theyre expected to end up with between 135 to 145 seats. Compared to the first Outlook- CMS poll in July, the NDA is up by 15- 20 seats while Congress and allies are down by a similar number. That Election 99 is still a two- horse race is clear with Vajpayee maintaining a clear edge over Sonia.
The opinion poll reveals that the forthcoming elections will see the best and worst- ever performances by the BJP and Congress respectively. While the BJP on its own is expected to cross the 210- seat barrier, the Congress is expected to end up with 120- odd seats. The NDA is expected to form the next government with 42.71 per cent of the vote. Theres a contradiction here. Eighty per cent of the respondents want a single- party government at the Centre, yet the BJP and its two- dozen allies are well ahead of the Congress which is promising just that.
Perhaps the only hope for the party is that 42 per cent of the respondents back them on the stability issue. It also maintains a small lead over the BJP among SC / ST voters; a significant one vis- a- vis Muslims.
The poll also points to a troubled future for the NDA, because whiler the BJP has made significant gains by forging strategic alliances the image of its allies has been severely dented in the process. The standing of the Biju Janata Dal, Shiv Sena, Samata Party, Loktantrik Congress, Lok Shakti and Akali Dal has taken a real beating. An interesting poll finding is that the TDP is likely to emerge as the largest regional force with 19- 21 seats, while the BSP is the only party retaining its support base (5 per cent nationally).
METHODOLOGY: In view of the fluid political scenario in the run- up to the 13th general elections, CMS has worked on the basis of a "Tracking Methodology Survey" wherein the first opinion poll for Outlook was conducted as soon as the election schedule was announced and the current one undertaken after the poll process had begun and much closer to polling day. This helps in capturing more accurately the change in voting intention, if any.
The field work for this poll was carried out between August 17 and 22, when 14,220 representative voters spread over 79 Lok Sabha constituencies in 16 states were interviewed. The survey covered 237 assembly segments, 711 villages and 237 urban areas. As in any pre- poll survey, there could be some discrepancy between the actual results and predictions and there is, therefore, a 3 per cent margin of error for the Outlook -CMS poll.
