Al Jazeera TV Channel broadcast on January 19, 2006, an audio message purported to be of Osama bin Laden (OBL). This was the first audio message of his since December, 2004.
One of the purposes of this message was to end speculation that the absence of any Al Qaeda strike in the US homeland since 9/11 could indicate that it no longer had the capability for another 9/11 in US territory and that President George Bush’s policy of confronting, weakening and hopefully ultimately neutralising Al Qaeda in its overseas bases in order to keep it away from the US homeland was succeeding. The message warned the American people that Al Qaeda was going ahead with its preparations for another 9/11 and that, just as the strengthened security measures of Europeangovernments could not prevent its successful operations in European capitals (Madrid and London), the strengthened security measures of the US would not be able prevent another Al Qaeda operation in the US homeland when it was ready for it.
He said:
"It's only a matter of time. They are in the planning stages, and you will see them in the heart of your land as soon as the planning is complete. Security measures in the West and the United States cannot prevent attacks there. The proof of that are the explosions you have seen in the capitals of European nations. The delay in similar operations happening in America has not been because of failure to break through your security measures. The operations are under preparation and you will see them in your homes the minute they are through (with preparations), with God's permission.''
He offered to call off the preparations if the US troops were withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan . OBL has had the reputation of issuing warnings before his major terrorist strikes, without indicating where, when and how he would strike. His warnings have, therefore, to be taken seriously and cannot be dismissed as empty threats. Such a threat need not necessarily materialise on the fifth anniversary of 9/11. OBL carries out his threats only after his preparations are complete without worrying about any deadline.
As the fifth anniversary of 9/11 approaches, the questions worrying American counter-terrorism experts and policy-makers would be: Was the plot by some Muslim residents of the UK, most of them of Pakistani origin, to blow up about 10 US-bound aircraft discovered by the British Police on August 10, 2006, meant to be a repeat of 9/11 threatened by OBL in his message of January 19, 2006? If not, does he still have the capability to strike in the US homeland and, if so, how to prevent it?
The investigation made so far into the thwarted plot by the British Police does not indicate clearly that the persons arrested were acting at the instance of Al Qaeda and that OBL was planning to use them for a repeat of 9/11directed against US aircraft, which are considered US territory. The Pakistani officials have been claiming that this plot was inspired by a senior leader of Al Qaeda based in Afghanistan, but they have not been able to produce any evidence in support of it. The Afghan authorities have refuted the Pakistani claim and denied the presence of any Al Qaeda leader in their territory.
OBL and his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri have so far remained silent on the claims of the British about a thwarted plot of catastrophic dimension. Nor have they commented on the Mumbai explosions of July 11, 2006, in which 184 suburban train commuters were killed.
In view of this, one has to presume that the plot thwarted by the British was probably not the one about which OBL was talking on January 19, 2006, and that the details of the plot being planned by Al Qaeda for another 9/11 in the US homeland remain undetected.
Al Qaeda's anti-US anger remains as strong as ever. The oft-reiterated determination of the US and the UK to retain their troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for as long as required to defeat international jihadi terrorism has made it clear that the US has refused to be intimidated by OBL's warning of another 9/11 if it did not withdraw its troops.
If after having uttered such a warning publicly over Al Jazeera, OBL does not carry out the threat, it would amount to his admitting that President Bush's war on terrorism has rendered Al Qaeda incapable of carrying out another 9/11 in US territory though it may still be able to carry out terrorist strikes in other countries of the West either on its own or through surrogates such as newly-recruited members of Al Qaeda from the local diasporaof Pakistani and other origin.
The tightening of physical security in the US after 9/11 has created a Fortress America which it would be difficult for Al Qaeda to penetrate. The 9/11 terrorist strikes were carried out by Al Qaeda entirely with suicide volunteers from its Arab hardcore. The physical surveillance on Arabs wanting to enter the US is so strong since 9/11 that any repeat of 9/11, to be successful, may have to depend on non-Arab suicide volunteers.
After the Arabs--from West Asia as well as North Africa--only Pakistani jihadis, either from Pakistan itself or from their overseas diaspora, have so far given evidence of the required motivation, determination and innovative capability to be able to take the US by surprise and stage another mass casualty terrorism in its territory, in emulation of what the Arabs did on 9/11.
The London blasts of July 7, 2005, and the recently thwarted plot in the UK showed that despite the tightening of physical security and surveillance of the Pakistani diaspora in the UK after 9/11, sleeper cells have managed to remain undetected. The British security could not thwart the plans of one of these cells to carry out the July 7, 2005, London blasts. The possibility of the existence of more sleeper cells in the Pakistani diaspora in the UK and other countries of West Europe adds to the nervousness of the security agencies of these countries.
Next to Arabs, the Pakistanis have been subject to the closest surveillance in the US. Many sleeper cells of persons of Pakistani origin in the US, including one of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), have been rendered inactive since 9/11. Most of those involved in these cells were recent arrivals from Pakistan and hence attracted the attention of the US security agencies easily.
It is much more difficult to detect sleeper cells that might have been formed either by Pakistanis born and brought up in the US or by those, who had migrated to the US long before 9/11 as children with their parents and grew up in the US. It is sleeper cells of suchelements--long-standing residents of Pakistani origin--which were found to be in the forefront of the jihad in the UK.
The failure of the US security agencies to detect sleeper cells that might have been formed by long-standing residents of Pakistani origin should add to the worries of the US security agencies. How to detect and neutralise them and thwart any plot for a repeat of 9/11 that might be fomented by them?
The US ability to neutralise such sleeper cells and foil their plots would depend on its ability to identify and eradicate their rear base in Pakistani territory from which inspiration and directions for action flow to the sleeper cells all over the world. This rear base from which the plots directed against the UK originated and from which any plots targeting the US are likely to originate remains unexterminated by Pakistan despite all the lollipops showered onGen Pervez Musharraf by President George Bush as an incentive to motivate him to act against OBL, Zawahiri and other Al Qaeda remnants and their Pakistani collaborators.
True, Musharraf has arrested many leading cadres of Al Qaeda and handed them over to the US. But, what he has exterminated so far is the tip of the jihadi iceberg, which was visible to the US. The iceberg itself remains untouched by him and his intelligence agencies. This iceberg is the source of his strength and his value in the eyes of the US and the UK. If it goes, his importance gets diluted. He is trying his best to avoid action against it.
All the money, equipment and technology given by the US to him to enable him to kill or capture OBL, Zawahiri and other Al Qaeda remnants and destroy the iceberg have not been put to use for the purpose for which they were given. Instead, they have been diverted for use against his own political adversaries at home such as Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, the legendary Baloch leader, who was killed with the equipment meant for use for killing OBL andZawahiri.
If the US has to eliminate once and for all the threat of another mass casualty terrorism in the US homeland, it has to find ways of destroying this iceberg. Musharraf has amply proved that he will not be the man to do it. It is high time the US wakes up to the reality that its war against Al Qaeda cannot be won with Musharraf as its ally. The more it continues to rely on Musharraf, the greater the chances of continued bleeding of the people of the civilised world at the hands of the jihadi terrorists.
It has to start looking for alternatives.
B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd.), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies.
