Jair Bolsonaro has been sentenced to over 27 years by Brazil's Supreme Court.
The former Brazilian president disputes electoral loss to Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro lived in self-imposed exile in Florida, US, after his election loss.
Judge Alexandre de Moraes, the man who led the investigations against Jair Bolsonaro and his seven advisers, has been a prime target of the former President’s jibes for many years. He struck down many of Bolsonaro's instructions as illegal while he was President from 2019 to 2023. The BBC reported that during demonstrations in Brasilia and Sao Paulo in 2021, Bolsonaro had publicly called Moraes a "scroundel" and declared that he "wanted to tell the traitors that I will never be arrested".
The judge had earlier banned misinformation and mistrust of the elections spread by Bolsonaro’s followers on social media. However, an independent audit of Brazil’s electronic voting system has confirmed it to be ‘reliable, secure and transparent’.
Now, Brazil’s Supreme Court has sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for his role in attempting to overthrow democracy and overturn the 2022 elections. Four of five Supreme Court judges found him guilty, underscoring a decisive rejection of authoritarian tactics.
It is not that the former president will be sent to jail immediately. The court has 60 days to publish its ruling. After that Bolsonaro’s lawyers will have five days to appeal. Much can happen in between.
Bolsonaro could challenge the conviction and ask for a hearing of a full bench of the Brazilian Supreme Court. But the conviction will further polarise an already divided nation.
The United States had been warning Brazil since the trial began and is likely to use all its power to get Bolsonaro a reprieve. Whether it will do so with an even higher tariff rate or by some other means remains to be seen. The already strained relationship between Brazil and the United States is likely to further deteriorate as South America’s largest economy braces for Washington’s reaction.
Trump Admirer
Bolsonaro, a friend and admirer of Donald Trump, could not accept defeat at the hands of his rival Lula da Silva in 2022 and accused him of stealing his vote. This was straight from the playbook of his mentor Trump, who continues to claim that he had won the 2020 presidential elections. The storming of the United States Capitol by Trump supporters on January 6, 2021, was one of the darkest moments of American democracy. In similar fashion, Bolsonaro encouraged his supporters to mobilise in Brasilia on January 8, 2023, and vandalise the seats of power.
The conspiracy aimed at assassination of both Lula, his vice president-elect Geraldo Alckmin and Justice Moraes. Bolsonaro, a former military captain, tried to get the army’s support. Like in many other Latin American countries, Brazil’s military had also in the past played a part in the country’s politics. However, the plot failed as the military refused to support the conspiracy.
Bolsonaro, a frequent guest in Mara-Lago and has tried to model himself on the United States leader. Tapping into Trump’s playbook, Bolsonaro has energised his conservative followers and strengthened his far right support base.
Trump tried to browbeat Brazil
Trump interfered blatantly to support his ideological allay. He began with sanctioning Alexandre de Moraes, the Brazilian Supreme Court judge overseeing the trial of Bolsonaro. While announcing the sanctions, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited the Global Magnitsky Act, which allows the United States government to sanction human rights abusers around the world. Bessent claimed that judge de Moraes had used his position to authorize “arbitrary” pre-trial detentions and suppress free speech. Meanwhile, President Trump had kept up the drum beat against the Brazilian justice system and da Silva by repeatedly declaring that the trial was a “witch hunt’’ against Bolsonaro.
He next slapped a 50 per cent tariff on Brazil to intimidate his friend’s political opponent. Brazil is in no mood to bow to the United States President’s threats and President Lula has instead tried to galvanise the BRICS group to work together in opposing the United States tariffs. He had spoken to Prime Minister Narendra Modi too, about the tariff situation. Both India and Brazil were slapped with the highest tariff. However, while Trump seems to be softening his position on India, the sentencing of Bolsonaro is likely to lead to more sanctions against Brazil.
The New York Times noted the bitter irony in a guest column, where the writers said that while Brazil’s judiciary punished Bolsonaro for undermining democracy, the United States appeared to reward a similar effort by propelling Trump toward another presidential run.
“On Thursday, the Brazilian Supreme Court did what the United States Senate and federal courts tragically failed to do: bring a former president who assaulted democracy to justice…
"These developments draw a sharp contrast to the United States, where President Trump, who also attempted to overturn an election, was sent not to prison but back to the White House.’’
Escalate Tension
This verdict will further escalate tension between Brazil and the United States. Trump has been effusive in his praise of Bolsonaro as a “strong leader’’ who loved his country and dismissed the case against him as a witch hunt. Lula, on his part, has pushed back, saying that “the defence of democracy in Brazil is a matter for Brazilians. We are a sovereign nation. We won’t accept interference or instruction from anyone. We have solid and independent institutions. No one is above the law. Especially those who attack freedom and the rule of law.”
US and Latin America
The United States has often had testy relations with its Latin American neighbours. The CIAs past misdeeds in the region are well remembered. America’s agenda of regime change, started not with Saddam Hussain and the Iraq war, but with Chile in 1973. Here the CIA helped to overthrow Salvador Allende, the first democratically elected Marxist president, through a military coup. General Augusto Pinochet, the coup leader, was backed by the CIA. The military dictator was known for his repressive rule and slaughtered thousands of suspected leftists for decades before civilian rule was finally restored.
Today Venezuela with its Leftist government has come under Trump’s radar. The United States had deployed its naval forces in the Caribbean since August, accusing Venezuela of sending deadly drugs into America. Earlier this month the United States military attacked a Venezuelan vessel and killed 11 people, alleging they were members of a drug cartel.
The Trump administration, and the President himself, have said the lethal strike on the vessel from Venezuela was intended to make it clear that the United States would not tolerate drugs being shipped into this country.
“Killing cartel members who poison our fellow citizens is the highest and best use of our military,” Vice President JD Vance posted on social media. Whether the Brazil Supreme Court will end Bolsonaro’s political career or resurrect it remains to be seen.
Then again, Bolsonaro is not the only former president facing a prison sentence. Nearer home, in South Korea, former president Yoon Suk Yeol is currently serving a prison sentence, following the path of his predecessor Park Geun-hye, the country’s first woman president, who was also jailed before being pardoned. She, however, remains barred from political activity.
Similarly in Argentina, Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was convicted of fraud in 2022, for actions taken during her presidency between 2007 and 2015. Again, Brazil’s current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was in jail after being convicted in 2017, on charges of money laundering. The conviction was overturned in 2021, and he won the presidential elections the following year.
