India is projected to win 35-45 medals, with athletics, boxing and weightlifting expected to lead the charge
The exclusion of shooting, wrestling, badminton and hockey could significantly reduce India's overall medal tally
Despite the reduced program, India remains a strong contender for a top-four finish in the Glasgow 2026 medal standings
The Commonwealth Games have long been one of India's happiest hunting grounds. From weightlifting and wrestling to shooting, badminton and boxing, the country has consistently finished among the top four nations, collecting medals in bunches.
But Glasgow 2026 presents a completely different challenge. With the Games trimmed to just 10 sports after Australia's Victoria withdrew as host, India enters the 23rd edition with several of its traditional medal-winning disciplines removed.
As a result, expectations have shifted from chasing a record haul to maximizing opportunities in the events that remain. While India is still expected to feature prominently on the medal table, replicating the 61 medals won at Birmingham 2022 appears highly unlikely.
Where Will India's Medals Come From?
Despite the reduced programme, India retains genuine medal hopes in several sports. Athletics is expected to lead the charge, with Olympic champion Neeraj Chopra headlining a strong Indian contingent.
Boxing, traditionally one of India's strongest Commonwealth disciplines, could also deliver multiple podium finishes, while weightlifting remains another major source of medals despite recent setbacks caused by doping-related suspensions. Judo, artistic gymnastics and para events are also expected to contribute, while India's men's and women's 3x3 basketball teams will look to spring a surprise.
Based on the current field and the sports on offer, a realistic projection would place India between 35 and 45 total medals, including around 12-16 gold medals. Athletics, boxing and weightlifting are likely to account for the bulk of those golds, with para swimming, para athletics and para powerlifting offering additional podium opportunities.
However, much will depend on athlete availability and form, with several stars balancing packed international calendars ahead of the World Championships in their respective sports.
The Missing Sports Could Cost India Dearly
The biggest reason behind India's projected decline is the removal of several sports that have historically driven its Commonwealth success. Wrestling, shooting, badminton, hockey, cricket, table tennis and squash have all been excluded from the Glasgow programme.
In Birmingham four years ago, these disciplines accounted for a substantial share of India's medal tally, making it nearly impossible to match previous totals under the new format. The streamlined Games were designed to reduce costs and improve sustainability after Victoria withdrew as host, leaving Glasgow to stage a compact event featuring only 10 sports.
Medal Prediction: India Should Still Finish Among The Top Four
Even with a smaller programme, India is expected to remain one of the Commonwealth's leading sporting nations. Australia and England are still favourites to dominate the medal table thanks to their strength across athletics, swimming and cycling, while Canada could also challenge. India, however, possesses enough depth in athletics, boxing, weightlifting and para sport to secure another top-four finish.
A tally in the region of 35-45 medals would represent a successful campaign given the unprecedented reduction in medal events and the absence of several traditional Indian strongholds. Glasgow 2026 may not produce India's biggest Commonwealth medal haul, but it will provide a valuable indication of the country's growing versatility beyond its established strengths.
