Tough Fight Ahead For Omar Abdullah’s Seat In J&K by-polls

A group of people slouched on plastic chairs while away time at a cement shop in Budgam town of Kashmir. It has been their routine to assemble at the place and chat about day-to-day incidents in their life. But since the poll bugle was sounded here, their conversation is now also about speculating who could win the polls next month.

Elsewhere in the town, poll fervour was visible, with banners hoisted at several street corners, while the candidates have also been organising public meetings daily. More than a year after the constituency elected chief minister Omar Abdullah, who, however, vacated the seat to retain the family bastion of Ganderbal, the town has again been gripped by poll fervour.

Budgam and the Nagrota assembly seat in Jammu are going to the polls on November 11, and counting on both seats has been scheduled for November 14.  Polls are being held on the Nagrota seat due to the demise of BJP MLA Devendar Singh Rana.

Mohammad Ashraf Parra, 66, a retired government employee, says that Budgam has remained a National Conference (NC) stronghold, but this time the differences with their party MP, Aga Ruhullah, who has accused Omar of failing to deliver on electoral promises, could have a major impact in the polls.

“The fight will be very close in the elections here, and the challenge remains tough for the NC,” he says. Ruhulla, a former MLA from Budgam, earlier said he wouldn’t campaign for the party's candidate.

Professor Irshad Ahmad Shah, Kashmir University’s Head of the Department of Political Sciences since the NC has been playing the victim card by putting all the blame on the BJP for not being able to deliver on developmental promises, and the division of the Shia vote will influence the outcome of the polls. “The contest will be keen. I think Aga Ruhulla’s dissent would not be a major factor as the NC has been playing the victim card and the Shia votes will get divided in the constituency between NC and PDP.”

In Budgam, issues of public concern, such as the lack of proper roads and frequent power cuts, will be among the factors that will decide the outcome of the polls. Political parties have said similar concerns are part of the election campaign in Nagrota, with candidates vowing to deliver better development if elected.

Ghulam Mohammad Wani, 60, says that residents of the Budgam constituency, which is also a district headquarters, don’t even get clean drinking water. “ We have a filtration plant which lies some four to five kilometres away from the main town. But that filtration plant is non-functional, and we are getting contaminated water. People have dug up tube wells for their daily water needs,” he says.  

Haji Ali Mohammad Mir, 58, a local shopkeeper, says that unemployment in Budgam was among the highest in Kashmir, with even highly educated youth remaining jobless. “ Two of my girls who have done a PhD are unemployed,” he says.

The by-elections to two assembly segments have also coincided with the NC government led by CM Omar completing one year in office.  Omar assumed office on October 16 last year after his party, the NC, won a majority in elections held after nearly 10 years. However, several public commitments made by Omar, like increasing the ration quota and waiving the power fee, have remained unfulfilled. Omar has also faced accusations from the opposition for being soft towards the BJP.  

NC has, however, blamed the dual control, with most of the powers remaining with the Lieutenant Governor, Manoj Sinha, for its inability to fulfil the electoral promises made out before last year's elections.

Wani says that Budgam has lagged behind other assembly constituencies in Kashmir in terms of development.

“After Omar Abdullah vacated this seat, the constituency development funds couldn’t be spent here,” he adds.

Suhail Ahmad, 26,  however, says that parties, including the NC, have rarely fulfilled their political promises. “The political manifestoes are rarely implemented by the parties. Political parties have promised rationalisation in reservations, but I believe that the jobs should have gone to those people who were hit by pellet guns in the action by security forces, as they have been protesting against human rights violations. There is none to take care of them,” adds Ahmad.

A pledge to undertake developmental works has also been made by the candidates in the Nagrota assembly constituency. Devyani Rana, daughter of ex-MLA Devendra Rana, who is contesting from Nagrotra on the BJP ticket, said in a recent rally that her father never asked anyone about their identity and was at the forefront in resolving people's problems. Her opponent, Harsh Dev Singh, of the Panthers Party (India), has, however, said that the constituency has faced neglect on the developmental front and has promised basic amenities such as clean water and a proper power supply to the people.

The run-up to the polls, however, has also highlighted the differences between the NC and its coalition partner, Congress. Both parties, which had a pre-poll alliance during the 2024 elections, have, however, made their differences known ahead of the elections.  Several Congress leaders said that Omar didn’t keep the promise of sparing one Rajya Sabha seat for the alliance partner, on which it could have won, which led the Congress to lodge a protest and decide not to contest the Nagrota seat, and also to leave Budgam assembly constituency for the NC.

Senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Monga, however, says that the  party could join a joint campaign for the NC candidates. “ I think the contest in Budgam is between NC and PDP, while in Nagrotra it will be a keen contest for the seat between the BJP and NC,” he adds.

Ghulam Mohammad Bhat, a local resident, however, says that, more than differences within the alliance, people's voting preferences along sectarian lines could decide the outcome of elections in Budgam. “The Budgam constituency has a sizeable Shia population and with the candidates from the NC and the PDP both from the same sect, the support base of the NC among the Sunnis could have an impact on the electoral results,” says Bhat. He, however, adds that the assembly constituency in Central Kashmir has faced neglect even when the NC has retained the seat for several years.

Bashir Ahmad, 33, who runs a tea stall in the main town, however, says that the manifestos of the parties related to development and providing jobs to youth remain almost identical. He adds that people have traditionally voted for NC candidates and that the party has a strong cadre. “Even the elderly people in our home have been supporting NC.  People connect with the party’s election symbol, plough, and it has a good voter base as it is one of the oldest parties,” he adds.