IN Bengal, the one-year-old Trinamul Congress (TMC) is taking the elections more seriously than its established opponents like the Left Front or the Congress. The party has been the first off the starting block in the pre-poll run-up, and even in campaign terms, it has set a blistering pace.
Perhaps it has something to do with subtle changes in the persona of its leader, Mamata Banerjee. These days, she is more mature, less strident, and in terms of style, more inscrutable than unpredictable.
Consider her decision to stay out of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance or avoiding any joint campaign with the BJP. They may be efforts at odds with her announcement-"We'll certainly join the ministry in case the BJP comes to power"-but she justifies it on the ground that as the latest entrant in the treacherous terrain of active politics, the TMC must prove it's no flash in the pan and win most of the 29 seats it's contesting. The BJP, of course, thinks it's "an effective way of eating your cake and having it".
For the ruling Left Front, plagued by the incumbency factor after being in power for 22 years, continuing tensions between the TMC and the BJP is good news. It is in the throes of dissolution with the Forward Bloc and the RSP releasing their own manifestos for the first time since the LF was formed in '77. Depending on the poll outcome, these parties could well align with the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress. Jyoti Basu had expressed interest in aligning with the Pawar group, but he was snubbed publicly by P.A. Sangma who ruled out any truck with the two Communist parties.
The state BJP is yet to get over the way the TMC torpedoed its prospects at the Bankura seat. "In Bankura," says BJP leader Arun Gupta, candidate from Purulia in '91, "our vote went up from 5.38 per cent to 33.7 per cent between '96 and '98. We could've had it in the bag this time." Mamata instead announced support for CPI(M) dissident leader Natabar Bagdi.
Sources from the TMC/BJP hope to increase their present tally of eight out of 42 to 12 or 13 this time. In addition to their existing seats, they expect to win Balurghat, Raiganj, Krishnagar, Nabadwip and a few more seats where the Left had won by a wafer-thin margin over the combined anti-Left vote.
Left sources challenge this. "TheTMC will have its work cut out to defend its Howrah, Seramore, Barasat and Jadavpur seats. Bikram Sarkar can't face voters in Howrah;TMC's Ranjit Panja wanted out of Barasat, Krishna Bose will not find it easy to beat our Kanti Ganguly," says a CPI(M) state committee member. In his assessment, which local opinion in these constituencies seems to endorse, the TMC could well lose these four out of the seven seats it won in '98, just as BJP's Tapan Sikdar will find it hard to retain Dum Dum. "In fact, we're confident of retaining most of our 33 seats," say CPI(M) sources. "Parties like the TMC can never survive, being totally bereft of any ideology," says Anil Biswas, CPI(M) state secretary.
Polling this time could also be more violent than in '98. There have been pre-poll clashes in Midnapore, leading to a tense situation betweenTMC/BJP supporters and those of the Left and in greater Calcutta. Biswas accuses the TMC/BJP men of trying to attack his car in Nadia. Congress leader Pranab Mukherjee told newsmen: "Here anti-socials and lumpen elements tend to join either the CPI(M) or the TMC, with more opting for the latter. "
BJP sources expect to increase their margins considerably in the eight districts bordering Bangladesh not only after Kargil, but also after the recent seizure of RDX and other explosives and the arrest of ISI operators. "Even Left leaders like Jyoti Basu and Buddhadeva Bhattacharya are now admitting that the ISI did have bases here, long after we had sent them specific information," says Mamata.
The Left has also been evasive on infiltration and ISI activities. They've been known to encourage Bangladeshi infiltration to build their votebanks. Jyoti Basu can say one day: "ISI? I don't know anything about them." And two days later, following the seizure of explosives at Sealdah station, he says: "The ISI is active here, but we always nab them."
The BJP meanwhile has its own plans to deal with TMC tantrums after the polls. "This time our party is likely to corner between 320 to 350 seats together with our allies, if opinion polls are an indication. If that happens, Banerjee will find her importance and her manoeuverability with the BJP much reduced," say senior BJP leaders.
The Congress won only Malda in '98, its voteshare down from around 40 per cent to 16 per cent, as theTMC walked away with 25 per cent. Ironically, apart from A.B.A. Ghani Khan Choudhury's personal appeal at Malda, the party may pose a tough challenge for others at Berhampore, where its candidate, the controversial Adhir Choudhury, is streets ahead of others. It wouldn't be surprising if it won two seats this time instead of 1. A major worry for the Congress is that its supporters will be put off by the party's recent bonhomie with the CPI(M) at the national level and go over to theTMC in larger numbers than in '98.
