It's Head Hunting Time

At any rate, Khan's visit had the Prime Minister's nod. He had been entrusted the job by Rao himself to mend fences with Pilot, who had recently been relieved of the relatively high-profile home affairs portfolio. Khan was but a part of the realignment efforts initiated by Rao to strengthen his position in the party.

All this activity only confirms that the countdown to the polls have truly begun. There are indications that Rao is keeping his options open regarding the election dates and may even think of advancing them. The Lok Sabha secretariat has invited members of the 10 th Lok Sabha for a group photograph on December 13 – normally a practice during the House's last session, a pointer that elections will be held prior to June, possibly in April. At best, another session may be called. This will be necessary to pass the budget or, as has been hinted by Parliamentary Affairs Minister VC Shukla as a strong likelihood, a vote on account. But such a session is certain to be a very truncated one, business-like and divested of all ceremonial frills.

Attempts to bring about a pre-battle thaw, therefore, are not directed solely at second-rung leaders. Rao has been making overtures to even Sonia Gandhi. Just a week before Khan's expedition, Rao had driven down to 10 Janpath, Sonia's residence, ostensibly to invite her for his grand-daughter's wedding in Hyderabad on December 2. The lady declined the invitation, citing prior engagements, but the fact that Rao spent nearly 20 minutes with her, and that he had visited her after more than six months, is considered significant. And it was no coincidence that Shukla, Rao's trusted aide, did not throw his customary dark hints about the Government coming out with Bofors findings on the eve of the winter session of Parliament. Clearly, Rao is again trying his best to cultivate Rajiv Gandhi's widow and preclude another Amethi-type emotive outburst from her before the polls.

Says an elected member of the Congress Working Committee: "Rao is under pressure from party MPs to request Sonia to campaign for party candidates and he cannot ignore that." About 100 MPs have already approached Sonia in this regard and she has responded with her customary, enigmatic silence.

It is not Rao alone who is engaged in the realignment efforts. Another Congress heavyweight who has been taking active interest in organising such meetings with Sonia is former Maharashtra chiief minister Sharad Pawar, who is a fairly frequent visitor to 10 Janpath. In fact, it is a virtual race amongst various Congress factions to secure greater access to Sonia. If Pawar is to have a realistic chance of taking up cudgels against the Prime Minister, he needs her on his side.

Pawar has already positioned himself against Rao. Time and again he has attacked Rao by saying that the Congress should apologise to the minorities for the demolition of the Babir Masjid. The Maratha is clearly banking on the perception that Muslims hold Rao personally responsible for the demolition. With the general elections approaching, he now wants to fully exploit the feeling of unease in the party on this score.

As for Rao, he has a two-fold strategy. On the one hand, he is selectively mending fences with some of his detractors; for example, feelers have been sent to ND Tiwari to return to the party. On the other hand, he has been systematically trying to isolate people he considers his rivals within the party. After creating a situation whereby the long-defiant CK Jaffer Sharief had little option but to quit the Union Cabinet, Rao is now said to be training his guns on half-a-dozen other cabinet colleagues who have often defied or embarrassed him. The hit list includes Balram Jakhar, who failedto heed Rao's advice that he take up party work, and Ghulam Nabi Azad, who has of late joined hands with Pawar.

Getting Azad on his side, in fact, is just one the ways in which Pawar has hit back at the Prime Minister after he packed the Council of Ministers with anti-Pawar members in September. Pawar, no less manipulative than Rao, has already become the rallying point for Congress leaders disgruntled with Rao and is also known to have opened up channels with other parties in case the coming polls result in a hung parliament.

Besides Pilot and Azad, those flocking around Pawar include Union Textile Minister Kamal Nath, AICC General Secretary Ahmed Patel and Rao's former political adviser and current Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Jitendra Prasad. Pawar has also held a series of parleys with opposition leaders like former prime minister Chandra Shekhar, Karnataka Chief Minister H.D.Deve Gowda and former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav.

And while Welfare Minister Sitaram Kesri is not in direct contact with Pawar, he too has been embarrassing Rao by demanding eight per cent reservation for Muslims in government jobs and educational institutions, something which is not on the Congress agenda.

Says a senior Muslim leader and AICC member: "After the Laloo Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav phenomena suceeded, Kesri – also a backward class leader – is keen to forge an alliance among the scheduled castes, scheduled tribes, backward classes and minorities. If that happens, he will throw his hat for the leadership and is almost certain to get the support of both the Yadavs."

Aware oft his, Rao plans to field Kesri, who has alwys been a Rajya Sabha member, in the coming Lok Sabha polls. The same fate awaits Azad who does not have a permanent constituency in Kashmir, his home state, or outside. "Similarly, Jakhar is likely to be asked to get back to his home state, Punjab, which he has deserted for more than 15 years now," reveals an AICC general secretary who is a Pawar-baiter.

And in the absence of an election committee and the Central Parliamentary Board – which Rao has made a point not to constitute ever since he took over a Congress chief in May 1991 – he will have absolute discretion in deciding candidates and their constituencies. Denying Pawar nominees tickets in Maharashtra will be Rao's next move. The move, however, may not be without repercussions: After all Pawar had left the party in 1978 and rejoined it in 1986 on his own terms.

Rao's fate will clearly depend on how many seats on Congress will finally win. A projected claim that the party will secure absolute majority notwithstanding, many Congressmen predict an uncertain or hung scenario. "You will require alliances. In many cases, there could be a private understanding," says an MP from western Maharashtra. With the BJP itself a contender for power, the National Front-Left

Font combine may be orced to support the Congress. But, given its  well-known"abhorrence" or Rao, the Prime Minister will have to make his own rangementswith lesser parties to secure a possible second term.

Even this would be a faint possibility if the Congress’ performance in UttarPradesh remains as dismal as it was in 1991, when it won only ve seats in the crucialstate. It is in this context that the overtures to Tiwari, by far he most popular leaderwithin the state Congress, make sense. Tiwari has not directly responded to Rao’soffer for unity— not made to Arjun Singh— and stead has had it conveyed that Raohould sit together with Sonia and find an acceptable solution. By bringing Sonia into hepicture, Tiwari has only indicated that Rao may not be the automatic choice as leader forall sections. As Jagadambika Pal admits, "Yes, the rank and file want unity and weare aware of that."

Moreover, with CBI sources claiming that the investigation into the Rajiv Gandhiassassination case is unlikely to be over by December-end, despite the Governmentassurance in Parliament in the wake of Sonia’s Amethi visit, the emotive issue canstill be used by Rao’s detractors. A split in the Arjun-Tiwari camp would minimisethe resultant damage.

All this, of course, may not be enough. Even the hype around the Rs 10,000 crorewelfare package announced recently may not yield votes, especially in the absence of acohesive, well-tuned party mach inery that can pre sent it to the people: the state unitsare, as usual, riven by bitter factional rivalries. Or, as in crucial states like AndhraPradesh and Uttar Pradesh, they are in a state of general debility.

"Rao could still be the leader of the party during the elections but the Congresswill probably get reduced to a regional outfit after the elections," says a CongressMP and former AICC general secretary. No doubt, the Congress’ demise has been wronglypredicted many times in the past, but this time around the threat seems more tangible.