The Bharatiya Janata Party believes it is in a win-win situation. And with good reason. 'The damage has been done,' says a bjp office-bearer. 'Now only the campaign details need to be worked out. If Sonia withdraws her resignation, our campaign stands and is bolstered by the Congress rebels. If she doesn't, but is the star Congress campaigner, they will have no prime ministerial candidate or it will be an attempt to get Sonia in without declaring her name. If she quits politics altogether, we'll be able to concentrate on what we wanted to from the beginning - the achievements of the Vajpayee government.'
'Our stand (that the Sonia-is-a-foreigner issue exercises the nation, not just the bjp) has been justified,' feels bjp general secretary K.N. Govindacharya. A 'reluctant' Vajpayee is now pushing to include the issue in the National Democratic Alliance manifesto. A divided and demoralised Congress would certainly point to a walkover for the bjp-led alliance. 'Well over 300 seats,' is the buzz.
Despite the problems with its allies and the convulsions within, the bjp has decided to go for as many alliances as it can. If it works, it will ensure that the Congress won't have anyone to ally with to make it to a simple majority. (The calculation: even the best Congress performance won't bring it near the half-way mark.)
The bjp assessment is that if Pawar's 'new front' attracts the alliances he is hoping for, this plan will be near-perfect. Apart from splitting the anti-bjp vote in some North-east states and in Maharashtra, deals with Mulayam in UP, the bsp in MP, Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu and even Laloo in Bihar, will ensure the Congress doesn't cross 100 seats is the calculation.
But the bjp must ensure the unity of their own alliance for the next three months. Especially during ticket-sharing talks with allies. The Congress rebels have hinted at possible alliances with Mamata in Bengal, Hegde in Karnataka and Naidu in Andhra Pradesh -all existing bjp allies. But party sources are confident that even if such tie-ups occur, it could be an informal three-way alliance against the Sonia Congress. 'We are waiting to see the numbers that come away with the troika, the alliances they manage,' says a bjp vice-president. As for the rss, it has been urging potential Congress rebels to repent by 'liberating the Congress from foreign leadership'.
With all eyes on the Congress, the bjp is trying frantically to resolve the serious rift in the key Gujarat and UP units. Even weighing the options in Haryana, where they're riding two horses, will have to be done fast. To add to the pressure, the special judge in the Ayodhya case at Lucknow has asked L.K. Advani and M.M. Joshi to appear in person for the framing of charges against them in June. It's ahead of the pack, but the bjp should remember that old adage about there being many a slip....
