Himachal Pradesh’s Political Crisis Puts Congress's Lok Sabha Plans In Jeopardy As BJP Goes Into Campaign Mode

Barely 15 months into the government after its splendid victory in the 2022 Himachal Pradesh assembly polls, the ruling Congress now finds itself in turmoil following cross-voting by six party MLAs in the last month’s Rajya Sabha elections.

The rebel MLAs, who were disqualified from the membership of the assembly within 18 hours after they defied the party whip, now await relief from the Supreme Court against the decision of Speaker Kuldeep Singh Pathania.

The revolt of these six MLAs has not just led to political instability in Himachal —where the BJP and Congress alternate power. It has also put the Congress party’s plans for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in complete jeopardy. The popularity graph of Congress has also taken a sharp dip with Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu walking a tightrope after failing to anticipate the crisis.

In this backdrop, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is all geared up to reap a rich political harvest though its leaders deny the possibilities of ‘Operation Lotus’ — the term for the phenomenon in which the BJP purportedly breaks up Opposition parties’ government in states.

Former Himachal CM Jairam Thakur has said: “There was no Operation Lotus in Himachal Pradesh. The Congress is facing a brewing crisis in the state after six MLAs cross-voted in the state’s Rajya Sabha elections. The Congress has lost the majority in the House. The government is on its way out.”

Nevertheless, the BJP is eyeing to grab power in the state from the ‘backdoors’— an example already set in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, it is also confident to repeat its performance of 2014 and 2019 of winning all four Lok Sabha seats in the state. This is the price the Congress, despite being in power, is likely to pay in the coming days for failing to anticipating the brewing crisis that erupted last month with the six MLAs’ rebellion. 

Congress Puts Up Brave Face But Trouble Is Evident

The Congress party, however, blames the BJP for attempts to topple its lone government in North India. In the words of AICC General Secretary Jairam Ramesh: “The BJP cannot take away the mandate of the people of Himachal Pradesh through its ‘Operation Lotus’. The party won’t hesitate to take tough decisions should there be a need.”

Sukhu also says: “The BJP has paid a hefty sum to six MLAs for cross-voting as part of a plan to topple the government. The MLAs sold their conscience. They will not be pardoned by the people who elected them in 2022 on Congress tickets.”

Yet, some of Sukhu’s MLAs have a different view and feel that the political crisis will severely affect the party in the Lok Sabha poll. A member of the Cabinet says, “The party is neither united nor prepared for the elections. Our workers are completely demoralised. Two-thirds of them feel the government will fall at any moment. It’s the BJP calling the political shots.”

Six ousted Congress MLAs, who were lodged at the Hotel Taj in Uttarakhand’s Rishikesh for the past few days under the protection of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) —courtesy of the BJP— are defiant and are making consistent attacks through social media posts on Sukhu.

“You have temporarily saved the government but the end is written on the walls. Don’t blame us for the collapse. It’s your own folly,” said Rajendra Rana, one of the key rebels, in a post.

Rana, who hails from Sukhu’s home district Hamirpur, is a two-time MLA, who defeated former Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal in the 2017 assembly polls. He was one of the ministerial post aspirants when Congress formed the government. Ironically, of six rebels, three are from Sukhu’s home district.

Issues With Himachal Congress Run Deep

The current saga of Congress rebellion ahead of the parliamentary polls is not limited to six MLAs. It is deep-rooted and is the result of simmering discontent within the ruling party, MLAs, cabinet members, and also the state party organisation.

State Congress Chief Pratibha Singh was also a chief ministerial post candidate, capitalising on the political legacy of her late husband Vrbhadra Singh, six-time Chief Minister of Himachal and the state’s tallest leader for over three decades. She has had an uneasy relationship with Sukhu and has often raised the issue of Congress workers not being given their due by the government.

After the cross-voting incident, Pratibha too fueled the sentiments. At one point, she drew a parallel between the BJP’s working and that of her own party. In an interview, she said, “The BJP’s working is indeed better than ours. From day one, I had been telling the CM that we will be able to face the upcoming election only if he strengthened the organisation. This is a very tough situation for us.”

Himachal Public Works Department (PWD) minister Vikramaditya Singh —Pratibha and Virbhadra’s son— quit the cabinet post a day after the cross-voting and aired his strong views against Sukhu. However, he later withdrew his resignation after the Congress High Command rushed central observers to Shimla to diffuse the crisis. That, however, did not stop him from meeting the six rebels and making a quiet trip to Delhi.

There are speculations that Vikramaditya is mending his ties with the Opposition BJP. He is understood to have also met Harsh Mahajan, the newly-elected BJP Rajya Sabha member from the state — a former loyalist of Virbhadra who had quit Congress ahead of the state assembly polls.

Mahajan winning the Rajya Sabha seat despite the BJP having just 25 members against 40 of Congress in the 68-member House speaks volumes about his political acumen and sharp skills.

BJP Ready For Polls As Congress Puts House In Order

The BJP insiders say the party has already given the final touches to its election strategy in Himachal. Meanwhile, Congress is busy in dousing the fire among its ranks and in doling-out posts to vulnerable party MLAs to placate them. These are the members who could jump the fence.

The BJP MLAs and office-bearers, on the other hand, are engaged with booth-level workers in outreach programmes in the constituencies.

In the second list of the BJP’s candidates released on Wednesday, the party named four-term MP and Union minister Anurag Thakur —son of former CM Prem Kumar Dhumal— from Hamirpur and Suresh Kashyap from Shimla.

The BJP, which had lost Mandi Lok Sabha seat in 2021 bypolls to Pratibha Singh, may field a new face on the seat. The BJP is also expected to replace sitting MP Krishan Kapoor, a Gaddi leader and former minister, from Kangra seat.

If the Congress turmoil aggravates and the party faces a split in the next few days, then the chances of Pratibha Singh turning to the BJP for a ticket are not ruled out.

The Congress has also invited applications from the Lok Sabha ticket aspirants but political developments in the party have not favoured a serious thought on the Lok Sabha poll as it looks now.

Meanwhile, Sukhu has made several political appointments to accommodate sulking MLAs in the government with cabinet ranks apparently to thwart the BJP plans to topple his government and to also stop six rebels from poaching other MLAs.  

With the BJP investing liberally in the Congress rebels by flying them around and lodging them in five-star hotels, it appears that Sukhu’s worries are far from being over.