All Aboard! Next Stop, Lucknow

If there is one thing that all the political parties in the fray for the 14th assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh have in common, it's a fear of losing their traditional votebanks. The lists of candidates announced last week were a clear indication that parties were trying to poach on each other's turf. If the Samajwadi Party is eyeing the BJP's upper caste votebank, the Bahujan Samaj Party is trying to attract the SP's minority votebase while the BJP hopes to carve a slice of the backward votes through its reservation policy for the Most Backward Castes (MBCS).

The stakes for each are high, promising a no-holds-barred contest. For the Samajwadi Party, as Mulayam Singh Yadav said at a public meeting recently, it's a do-or-die effort to recapture power in Lucknow. For the BJP's Rajnath Singh, the imperative is to justify the party's near-end-term decision to make him chief minister. And for the bsp's Mayawati, it's a chance to show that her party can cut across caste lines and grow beyond its scheduled caste moorings.

Accordingly, she's given a large number of seats to upper castes and minorities. Mayawati's strategy is not just to hit the SP where it hurts most—its minority votebase—but also to recreate the successful scheduled caste-Muslim combination which won her 14 seats in the Lok Sabha. "No matter what the SP attempts, it will never be able to give so many seats to the minorities," she says.

Reacting to this, the SP state president, Ram Saran Das, observed: "She is going to make a fool of herself. This time she has fielded people no one has ever heard of. It only speaks of her political immaturity." Mulayam Singh, for his part, is fighting hard to retain his votebase, seeking to drive home the "anti-Muslim" attitude of the ruling BJP by harping on the ban on SIMI and the Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance. He also needs to guard his flanks against a Congress ingress.

While the SP claims it's confident about its minority votebank, Mulayam has for the first time liberally doled out seats to the upper castes. Not just Brahmins and Thakurs, but Baniyas as well. The rationale being that if the CM's Thakur credentials have put paid to SP leader Amar Singh's attempts to woo the community, then the SP can hit back by wooing the traders, the Sangh's most hardcore support base.

A tough-willed Rajnath Singh, to his credit, has spared no effort to win public confidence and bring his party back on track. Under his predecessor, Ram Prakash Gupta, his rivals were confident the BJP would get no more than 20 per cent of the total seats. For Rajnath, the acid test is to prove that he has made a difference. He appears confident, dismissing the SP's machinations by saying, "I take pity on them. They have nothing substantial and have turned desperate."

But Triloki Nath Agarwal, general secretary of the Traders' Association of Uttar Pradesh, says they're unhappy with the party. "Disillusionment with the BJP and its false promises is what drove us to the Samajwadi Party and this time we have convinced our community to try a new leader," he says. The community is doubly miffed with Rajnath—not only did he oust "their" chief minister but later sacked the Loktantrik Congress Party's Naresh Agarwal, erstwhile power minister.

Baniyas comprise 16 per cent of the population and their change of heart could mean a big jolt for the ruling party. The SP has fielded Naresh Agarwal (partyless in between) from his own constituency, Hardoi, where he remains a popular figure. Questioned about the manifold corruption charges against Agarwal, SP leaders point out that the BJP's Kalraj Mishra is no better and that BJP leaders like Raja Bhaiya and Hari Shankar Tiwari have criminal records.

No party wants to run the risk of identifying itself with any single caste or community.Says ex-chief minister Kalyan Singh: "They all know they have failed to live up to the expectations of their voters." He's confident that his newly-founded Rashtriya Kranti Party will attract a chunk of the backward votes he had won for the BJP as chief minister. "Even if I do not win, I will cause enough damage to the ruling party," he says candidly.

The Muslim voter is expected to repeat the pattern of the general elections by indulging in tactical voting. The Congress could gain as a result in some areas. Another reason why the Congress might do better than expected is public disillusionment with both the SP and BJP, which have been ruling in rotation since 1989. The Congress leaders have themselves been surprised by the huge crowds of hopefuls outside their party office.

One reason for the Congress' sudden popularity is that it could well hold the balance of power in the event of a hung assembly—regardless of who wins the maximum number of seats. Says the SP's Das: "Why not, those who win the elections know they have a good chance to get a ministerial berth later."

With no significant electoral issues and the likelihood of traditional votebanks being split, the outcome is anybody's guess. The SP is harping on the anti-incumbency factor and the perceived shortcomings of Rajnath Singh's government. Rajnath says, "I am not a magician. But in the 14 months that I have been here, I have done better than what they imagined." He feels the anti-incumbency factor will apply to certain MLAs and not to the government.

One reason why the ruling party is indeed taking time over declaring its list: it wants some sitting MLAs to give up their seats to those who have a better chance of victory, the same formula which helped Madhya Pradesh chief minister Digvijay Singh to victory in 1998. "I know that people in my party are keen about it returning to power and they will rise above pettiness," says Rajnath Singh. Adds state BJP vice-president Satyadev Singh, "Those who haven't been loyal will not be considered, be it members of the BJP or the allies." The message: those who've indulged in cross-voting aren't likely to get tickets.

At the moment, the party is not making any commitments about fielding MBCS, a section it has wooed by bringing them within the fold of reservations. Says a BJP leader: "Our intention is basically to uplift this ignored lot socially. We are trying hard to field them wherever possible." But Kalyan Singh accuses the party of hypocrisy and predicts MBCS will not be given ample representation.

With all the contenders insecure about their votebanks, each is trying to bring as many castes and communities on board as possible. The one thing that's clear is that the BJP will have a hard time holding on to its 173 seats.