Amid the grinding war in Ukraine, Russia's Wagner Group's chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has warned that the group might soon come to an end.
While Prigozhin has been critical of Russian Defence Ministry earlier in the Ukraine War as well, this grim forecast shows a thaw is yet to take place.
In recent months, Prigozhin's Wagner Group has been at the helm of some of the most publicised battles in Ukraine, including the fighting in and around the city of Bakhmut that has seen some of the most intensive fighting in recent months. The Wagner Group also took the credit for the Russian victory at Soledar, which remains the biggest Ukrainian loss in recent months.
While Wagner Group and Prigozhin are now in the focus, it was not the case before Ukraine War. Earlier, the group was barely acknowledged.
Here we explain what is Wagner Group, who is Yevgeny Prigozhin, and why he said the group could soon come to an end.
What is Wagner Group?
Wagner Group has been described as a Russian private military company (PMC). However, the nature of Wagner Group's work goes far beyond that of a PMC.
Wagner Group can be better understood as the sword-arm of the Russian state, particularly of President Vladimir Putin. It serves Russian interests in places where the the Russian state does not want overt involvement, such as in Africa or South America.
"Russia for years relied on Wagner to do its bidding around the world in places where it did not want to openly commit troops or resources, where it could operate in a kind of gray zone. That granted Moscow a degree of plausible deniability as it exerted its influence and interests in other corners of the globe, from Syria to Mali to Venezuela," notes Vox.
Wagner Group came to the fore in 2014 when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea region of Ukraine. Wagner is understood to have participated in the annexation along with involvement in the militant and separatist activities against Kyiv in Ukraine's Donbas region in the East.
Wagner Group is most well-known for providing mercenaries for Russian causes or the causes of Russian allies, such as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but it also engages in a number of other activities such as natural resources extraction and political and intelligence support.
Wagner provides everything from security training, political and military advice, intelligence collection, influence operations, and combat operations, according to Vox. Russian security affairs expert Mark Galeotti described Wagner Group as "one-stop shop for all autocrats around the world" to Vox.
Think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) described Wagner Group as "both the tip of the Russian spear in Ukraine and the state’s backroom dealer in Africa". It further notes that Wagner Group counters Western goals in the world.
"Russia’s current use of PMCs reads like a classic case of 'coup-proofing' and simultaneously enables Moscow to use proxy forces as part of its broader irregular warfare strategy to enhance Russia’s reach abroad and achieve its geopolitical goals. Wagner trades its services—counterterror assistance and personal protection—for lucrative resource extraction deals, undermining Western political-military relationships with African states at the same time," note FPRI.
Who is Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has had an unconventional career. He did not start as a military officer but as a food stall-owner. Before that, he had been convicted for robbery.
Prigozhin is often called "Putin's Chef" as he ran a food empire that was preferred by Putin in earlier days. Soon afterward he opened a hotdog stand, which gradually led to a culinary empire, including a restaurant where a young President Vladimir Putin brought foreign dignitaries in the early 2000s, said Dossier Center investigator Denis Korotkov to Time magazine.
Prigozhin is considered to be an oligarch in Russia whose Wagner Group serves as proxy of Russian state. Following the collapse of Soviet Union, a group of businesspersons arose in Russia with high economic and political influence and connections with the Kremlin. These people are called oligarchs and are considered to be central to Putin's power in Russia and influence in outside world.
Time also notes that Prigozhin is also believed to be involved in 2016 Russian election interferance in the United States through his Internet Research Agency (IRA).
Prigozhin has come public since the beginning of Ukraine War regarding Wagner Group and involvement in Ukraine. He and Wagner Group have helmed some of the most intensive fighting in Ukraine and has often clashed with the Russian Defence Ministry, accusing it of depriving Wagner Group personnel of ammunition and other supplies.
Why did Prigozhin say Wagner Group could end?
Prigozhin's Wagner Group is helming the Russian fighting in and around Bakhmut, as per his own admission.
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Prigozhin has claimed earlier that Russians are not properly supplying his personnel. Now he has said that Wagner Group might face an existential crisis.
"Today we are coming to the point where Wagner is ending. Wagner, in a short period of time, will cease to exist. We will become history, nothing to worry about, things like this happen," said Prigozhin, as per Sky News.
"The Wagner chief has complained repeatedly about how Russia is conducting the war in Ukraine and has previously said his men are not being given the ammunition they need from the Kremlin," reported Sky News, adding that the video with Prigozhin's remarks did not clarify its timing.
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Earlier, Prigozhin has raised concerns about a well-equipped Ukrainian military mounting a counter-offensive against Wagner Group personnel.
"What's going on now with the Ukrainian Armed Forces counter-offensive? It's raining today and the last of the rain is forecast for May 2. Another week will be needed for the winds to dry the ground. After that, the Ukrainian Army will be ready to move...[The Ukrainian Army] is fully ready to move out and cover flanks. Nobody has ever covered our flanks. All the stories about preventing the Ukrainian reserves from entering Bakhmut is total crap. Not a single shot was made by the Russian Army. Nobody is giving them ammunition. Not to them, not to us. A criminal order was made not to give out ammunition," The Drive reported Prigozhin as saying on Wednesday.
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Taking his criticism of the Russian military establishment further, Prigozhin called them "scumbags".
"Ammunition is stacked high in warehouses as I already said before. Scumbags who made these decisions should be answerable to the mothers of those killed in action," The Drive reported Prigozhin as saying, who went on to add that five personnel are dying in place of one in current conditions.
