The Significance Of A Decisive Mandate In Bangladesh 

In a mandate that is expected to give Bangladesh political stability for at least five years, the Tarique Rahman-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) returned to power with a massive majority, winning 209 seats in the 300-seat parliament with 50% percent vote share. Their allies won another three seats. 

The Jamaat-e-Islami, which describes itself as a moderate Islamist force, emerged as the main opposition, winning 68 seats with 31.76 per cent vote share, while their allies won another nine seats. Among their allies was the National Citizen’s Party (NCP) that a section of the 2024 youth uprising leaders formed last year. It won six seats. Results of three seats remain awaited. 

The BNP’s sweeping majority comes amidst turmoil for the past few years, especially since 2023. The tension that grew due to the opposition’s protest over conducting the 2024 parliamentary elections without a non-political poll-time government snowballed into a major anti-government protest within six months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s return to power through a largely-boycotted election. 

Since Hasina’s overthrow in a youth-led uprising in July-August 2024, the country has struggled with a poor law and order situation under the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government. 

“Our position is clear. Peace and order must be maintained at any cost. No wrongdoing or unlawful activity will be tolerated. Regardless of party, religion, race, or differing opinions, under no circumstances will attacks by the strong against the weak be accepted,” Rahman said in his first post-election speech. 

While calling for building a safe, humane, and democratic Bangladesh, Rahman reminded the people that the country is about to begin its journey in a situation “marked by a fragile economy left behind by the authoritarian regime, weakened constitutional and statutory institutions, and a deteriorating law and order situation.” 

This is the BNP’s best performance since 1991, when Bangladesh saw what is widely considered as the 1971-born country’s first free and fair election, marking its journey towards democracy. The party got 140 seats in 1991 fighting alone and 193 in 2001 when it contested in alliance with the JeI. The JeI’s performance is also its best—the previous best being 18 seats in 1991, contesting alone, and 17 seats in 2001, contesting as part of the BNP-led alliance. 

However, the rise in both the party’s vote and seat share can be partly, if not largely, attributed to the absence of the Awami League, which ruled the country from 2008 to August 2024, from the elections. 

Hasina has been living in India since flying out of Dhaka on August 5, 2024 and her AL was prohibited from political activities, including elections, until the party faced trial for State-sponsored atrocities on youth protesters during the July-August 2024 uprising. 

The JeI also appears to have gained from the deteriorating support base of Jatiyo Party—the only major party to participate in both the January 2024 election and the February 2026 election. As the party got widely seen as Hasina’s ally, its traditional vote share appears to have shifted to other parties, including the JeI.  

Despite the AL and its allies’ absence, it was perhaps the most participatory election that Bangladesh witnessed since 2008. Both the BNP and the JeI and their allies had boycotted the 2013 and 2024 elections, while the 2018 election remained controversial for extensive rigging charges, with the AL-led Grand Alliance winning 288 of 300 seats. 

The 2026 election saw 60% of the electorate casting their votes, a share significantly higher than the 2024 election that saw only 40% voter participation. This reflects the 2026 election has found greater legitimacy among Bangladesh’s electorate—something essential for a government’s stability amidst a series of mostly-exclusive elections. 

In a clear sign of thawing in India-Bangladesh tense relationship since Hasina’s ouster, India’s Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla and foreign secretary Vikram Misri attended Rahaman’s swearing-in ceremony. Misri later also met JeI chief Shafiqur Rahman, the newly elected opposition leader. 

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s challenges are manifold. Among countries with more than 100 million population, Bangladesh has the highest population density. The economy has not been doing well. The BNP has conflicting views with the JeI and the NCP regarding constitutional and other reforms, which are expected to intensify in the coming days. The BNP government’s attempts to normalise relations with India may face opposition. The issue of AL and its allies’ trial may emerge as another bone of contention.  

The BNP had pitched itself as a liberal force–contrasting it against the Islamist politics of JeI. In his election speech to the nation on February 9, Tarique Rahman warned devout Muslims against getting misled. “BNP wants to build a safe Bangladesh where every citizen, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Christian, believer, non-believer or skeptic, living in the hills or plains, will be safe,” Rahman said, adding, “People of each religion will practice their religion according to their own religious beliefs and customs. This is the custom of a modern civilized society.”

However, according to Dhaka-based researcher Sohul Ahmed, the BNP’s landslide victory and JeI’s simultaneous rise should not be interpreted purely through an ideological lens, as the results appear to reflect the dynamics of the current political landscape and the pragmatic calculations of Bangladesh’s traditionally fluid electorate.

He points out that Bangladesh witnessed an election with almost zero casualties after many years in stark contrast to past polls, where election days were often marred by violence. Besides, no attacks on minority communities occurred following the vote. “This represents a historic and unprecedented moment, given that electoral violence against minorities had been a recurring feature of previous elections,” Ahmed says.