The Arrow Has A Point

For five years, as head of a backward state that was thought of as ungovernable, Nitish Kumar put his nose to the  grindstone, working away at development schemes. Then, as assembly elections got under way in Bihar last month, he took his report card to the electorate—which, convinced by his record, gave his party, the JD(U), and its ally, the BJP, a victory splash across Bihar. It was an epoch-making victory for Nitish, a crucial one for the NDA: a formidable 206 seats for the combine, 63 more than the 2005 tally of 143. Individually, too, the parties strengthened their hold on the state: the JD(U)’s tally was 115, 27 more than in 2005; and the BJP’s was 91, 36 more than in 2005. Clearly, Nitish’s business-like helmsmanship has scripted a new story for Bihar—and, it seems, for the nation.

Central to this story is Nitish himself. An engineer-turned-politician, he has paved his own path to success, in the process making even Laloo Prasad Yadav, a rival of no mean force of personality, eat his words and use a campaign plank—development—that wasn’t his own (in fact, it was borrowed from Nitish himself). On victory day, Nitish was modest and sober as ever: “I did not have any magic wand to force this victory. What we have is the trust of the people and the will to work harder.”

Needless to say, it was finally the people of Bihar who rewrote the grammar and vocabulary of politics in the state, voting for development and good governance, and perhaps even determining the direction politics in 21st century India will take. As Nitish himself put it after the results were announced, “The verdict marks a new story for Bihar. It will have its effects outside the state too. The results will be disappointing for those politicking on the basis of caste in Bihar. People certainly don’t want to go back to the age of darkness.”

The BJP, despite the occasionally prickly relationship with the JD(U)—chiefly on account of whether Narendra Modi should visit or campaign in Bihar—was quick to acknowledge the worth of the Nitish model. In Delhi, amidst celebrations at the BJP headquarters that began as early as three hours into counting, senior leader Arun Jaitley waxed eloquent. “The victory in Bihar is a victory of hope over fear and of optimism over despair,” he said. “People now look forward to the state with a sense of hope and pride. It’s a vote for the future of Bihar.” And the even more ebullient party president, Nitin Gadkari, said, “The people of Bihar have strengthened the politics of development. We’ve got a better verdict than we expected. Bihar has shown that the politics of 21st century India will not be of caste but of development.”

Besides the victory, Gadkari also draws cheer from the fact that Bihar has helped him establish his own credentials in the party. After all, it was he who put his foot down on the choice of candidates. Going by a pre-poll electoral survey, he personally selected 96 of the 103 candidates the party fielded, striking off the names of many ticket-seekers with questionable track records even though the state party unit might have recommended them. Gadkari had also drawn the lines for the campaign, directing Ananth Kumar to keep off Bihar during the campaign period. Ananth had rubbed Nitish the wrong way by announcing that Narendra Modi may campaign in Bihar. As things turned out, Ananth himself ended up visiting Bihar only once during the six phases of polling, spread over a month

N.K. Singh, a former bureaucrat and a JD(U) nominee to the Rajya Sabha, speaks of the shift in Bihar politics. “The results show there’s a paradigm shift in the very psyche of Bihar,” he says. “Nitish went to the people with his work and that of his government. His three yatras took the government to the people, and they voted for a performance- and development-centric government.” Nitish had been banking on this. Rally after rally, he told voters to compare his five-year term to the 15 years of the Laloo-Rabri regime. He addressed over 300 rallies in the last one month. He spoke of his work—new roads, better education, particularly for the girl child, jobs for the poor, empowerment of women through 50 per cent reservation in panchayats and the decriminalisation of the state with some 50,000 convictions. He promised people a “fear-free Bihar” and a developed state that would evoke “Bihari pride”. Also working to his advantage was his new constituency of women voters. His confidence in them was reflected in what he said even before polling began: “You’ll see 25-30 per cent more voting in Bihar. Women will come out and vote, and, regardless of what the menfolk in their families decide, they’ll vote for me.”

Piggyback Win: BJP workers in Delhi celebrate a Nitish-driven Bihar victory

Very pragmatically, while playing the development card well, Nitish also factored in caste, blending his secular ideology with innovative social engineering. To focus on the worst-off among the Dalits, he created a new category, the Mahadalits, and also targeted the Extremely Backward Castes among the obcs. He reached out to them with special employment and financial packages. This translated into votes and, more crucially, chipped away chunks from the caste base of Laloo and also Ram Vilas Paswan, who once enjoyed a pan-Dalit clout. Quite ironical, considering it was Laloo who had broken the upper castes’ hold on Bihar politics. This time, Laloo and his RJD were felled by the very Mandal logic they had profited from, as it was applied and extended beyond the dominant obc groups. What’s more, even the Muslims, the other half of Laloo’s M-Y bloc, bought into Nitish’s progressive plank, despite his alliance with the BJP. As did more than a few Yadav voters. The result: the very ground shifted from under the RJD-LJP’s feet. From 64 in 2005, the combine was down to 25 seats (RJD 22 and LJP three). Rabri Devi faced the ignominy of losing in both seats (Raghopur and Sonepur) she contested from. Paswan, too, can put his Guinness record days safely behind him.

Even the Congress, which decided to go it alone for the first time in 20 years—banking on Rahul Gandhi’s supposed charisma—fared abysmally. Despite Rahul’s six visits to the state and Sonia Gandhi’s campaigning, the Congress could retain only four of the nine seats it had won in 2005—its worst performance ever in Bihar. And the fact that Muslims gave a partner of the BJP a thumbs-up so close to the Ayodhya verdict has provided greater legitimacy to Nitish’s aspirations in national politics. Murmurs in the BJP are that he might even prove a contender for the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 elections, as a more inclusive face than Narendra Modi, for presenting a non-Congress alternative to the people. With his secular and pro-governance image, Nitish would gain more support from allies within the NDA than Modi. The NDA allies are likely to be less troubled by a winnable, secular and moderate face. That is perhaps the reason Modi, thought of till now as the NDA’s best bet, might find the Bihar results worrying.

The message from Bihar is clear—that in the new India, development will be the primary calling card. It’s for this reason Nitish is being seen as a true political celebrity—the first, in fact, to successively dovetail economic progress with inclusive politics. The message been accepted by all parties. Also gaining currency is the idea that every state calls for unique political strategies—the days of one model for the whole nation are over.

That could be exemplified by an interaction Nitish had a few weeks back with Giriraj Singh, his minister of cooperatives. Nitish and Giriraj, a BJP man, had fallen apart after the latter supported Modi’s campaigning in Bihar. He had reminded Nitish that, after all, Modi was a part of the JD(U)’s ally, the BJP, and that Nitish, as railway minister, had not objected to Modi campaigning in Bihar. For a few months after that, there was silence between the two. But when they met recently, Nitish quipped, “Jab aapke paas khud apna vijeta hai, kaahe bahar se neta aayaayit kar rahe thhe? (Why were you trying to import leaders when you have winners of your own?)” Home-grown talent. Home-grown programmes. Who better to tell us that than a Lohiaite socialist, a product of the Jayaprakash Narayan movement.