Will Mamata 'Didi' be the next Chief Minister? This is the questionbothering a large majority of voters in West Bengal. No wonder the Left Front is facingits stiffest electoral challenge in the last 24 years. Mamata is quite popular across allthe segments of voters, but will her popularity convert into votes?
Going by the ground situation as of end-April, the Left Front has aslender edge over the Trinamool-Congress combine. The Left Front is likely to win 145-155seats with a vote share of 45.49% This would result in the loss of 47-57 seats incomparison to its tally of 202 in the 1996 Assembly elections. The TMC-Congress combine islikely to win 129-139 seats with a vote share of 42.27%
There was wide spread speculation in the media that Jyoti Basu notbeing the CM is likely to harm the prospects of the Left Front. Contrary to popularbelief, a little over half of the voters felt that the Left Front is better placed now.Only a third of the voters felt that Jyoti Basu not being the CM is likely to harm thepoll prospects of the Left Front.
Clearly the change in Chief Minister has helped to stem the erosion inthe standing of the LF Government. The new CM Buddhadev Bhattacharya seems to have takencontrol of the situation and neutralised certain "anti-establishment" feelingsin the state.
Mamatas agitative politics have endeared her to the voters.Nearly 57 per cent of the voters appreciate the activities of Mamata Banarjee against theLeft Government. No wonder then that 48 per cent of the voters think that Mamata would bea better person to be the next Chief Minister of West Bengal. However 42 per cent thinksimilarly about Buddhadev Bhattacharya.
Mamatas decision to snap her ties with the NDA in wake of theTehelka episode was not viewed as a popular decision as 47 per cent of voters think thatMamata should not have resigned from the Vajpayee Government. Probably voters think thestate is likely to benefit more from her alliance with the NDA.
All along Mamata had labelled the Congress as the `B' team of the CPM.However, Mamatas last minute decision to align with the Congress without taking intoconfidence other party leaders and party workers has resulted in some friction within theparty and also between the alliance partners at the grassroot level.
In view of the changing scope of alliances, controversies andbitterness within each party, voters were asked as to which party they would vote for ifthere was no candidate in their respective constituency from the party they wouldotherwise like to vote.
Nearly 30 per cent of Congress voters would not be voting for Trinamoolcandidates. Similarly nearly half of the Trinamool voters are unlikely to vote forCongress candidates, in case there is no Trinamool candidate in their respectiveconstituencies.
Evidently, there appears some slide in Trinamool's chances once theagitational phase ended with the announcement of the poll process.
With nearly 15 per cent of the voters undecided about their votingpreference, the final outcome will be a photo-finish like never before.
