Five months into power and thereafter facing its first electoral test for the Shimla Municipal Corporation – one of India’s oldest civic administrations established – the ruling Congress has genuine reasons to rejoice in Himachal Pradesh. The party’s stunning victory in the civic body polls, the results of which were declared on May 4, has brought chief minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu to reckoning.
This was the first crucial electoral test for Sukhu since taking over as the Himachal Pradesh chief minister in December 2022. In the 34-member House, the Congress has romped home with an impressive victory in the 24 wards – a record 18 won by the women contesting on Congress tickets.
The BJP failed to cross the single-digit mark with only nine wards while one councillor was elected on the CPM ticket – a left-wing stronghold in the town – from Summerhill.
Congress tried to hard sell its Shimla victory in the ongoing Karnataka elections, making Sukhu the party's star campaigner, deputing him to Hubballi – the BJP stronghold for years – especially after Congress faced a backlash against Bajrang Dal ban promise.
Returning to power in the Shimla Municipal Corporation after a gap of 11 years brings a huge advantage to the Congress less than a year away from the next Lok Sabha elections. In the last two Parliamentary elections of 2014 and 2019, the BJP had been consecutively winning all four seats in Himachal Pradesh, purely on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's charisma.
Will Congress be able to sustain its victory drive in the state is a big question as the people in this Hindu-dominant state went with 'Hindutva and nationalism' more strongly than other factors on which they voted during the state assembly poll.
Sukhu’s electoral hope
“The victory in the Shimla Municipal Corporation is an endorsement of our policies and good governance. This is the third consecutive defeat to the BJP in the past two years. A trend was set out in the 2021 by-elections, including the Mandi Lok Sabha by-poll. Thereafter came the 2022 assembly elections and now the municipal body giving us a resounding victory despite BJP propaganda about the non-fulfilment of election promises," says Chief Minister Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu.
Sukhu is hopeful about Congress doing well in the next Lok Sabha polls and said that the BJP was facing rough weather in many states it had won earlier.
Contrary to his claim, however, the BJP has been forecasting that the Sukhu government will not last its full term. The BJP says it will be back to power soon as the public anger is slowly growing against Congress in Himachal over the 10 guarantees made in the poll campaign not a single of which have been met so far.
"There is also discontentment growing within the party and its MLAs. They are unable to face the people on promises. I have not seen any government before whose graph had crashed so soon," says former Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur.
The BJP, which went into a huddle immediately after its humiliating defeat in the municipal polls, blames it on the Sukhu government for blatant misuse of the official machinery, grant of financial benefits worth crores to government employees and its decision to regularise the services of employees having completed two years as contractual services. This was done in the middle of the campaign by the chief minister himself.
“More than 20,000 new voters got registered. They also included the Chief Minister himself who earlier had never been a voter in Shimla for several years. He had been contesting the assembly election from Nadaun in Hamirpur,” says state BJP president Rajeev Bindal.
Bindal – a former Speaker and party's think tank, was appointed as the party state chief in the middle of the Shimla MC polls to replace Suresh Kashyap, the sitting Shimla MP. The saffron party had lost the Mandi by-poll and later state assembly elections under his term.
BJP shifts gear to 2024 Lok Sabha polls
Apart from Kashyap, the BJP also shifted the state unit's organising secretary Pawan Rana – an RSS nominee in the BJP – because he was also facing wrath in the party over the debacle in 2022. The BJP is changing its team and getting ready for the upcoming Parliamentary polls.
The BJP won the Shimla Municipal Corporation elections in 2017 for the first time in its history. Its victory in the civic body polls created a strong saffron wave in the state. Much of its credit also goes to former Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal, a two-time chief minister – who also led the party in the subsequent state assembly polls as BJP's CM face. Unfortunately, he lost the election even as the BJP registered won 44 seats in the 68-member assembly.
Jai Ram Thakur took over as the chief minister and Dhumal gradually got marginalised. Before the 2022 assembly elections, he was also told to abandon his plans to contest the assembly election one last time to avenge his defeat.
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“Had the party given the ticket to Dhumal from Sujanpur — a constituency where he had lost in 2017, and also not shifted the constituency of the BJP senior and sitting minister Suresh Bhardwaj, the BJP surely could have made it to power.” a senior BJP leader admits.
Sukhu's rise on the horizon
This led to the emergence of a new leadership in the Congress under Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu whose rise to the chief ministerial position was purely based on his organisational experience and his close proximity to Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi. Sukhu had started his political career as a student leader, was elected twice as a councillor in Shimla Municipal Corporation, was the state youth Congress president, then a three-time MLA and finally state PCC chief in 2013 – a tenure he fully capitalised on to build his young team, a dozen of whom are now MLAs, and a few ministers too.
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A bitter rival of Virbhadra Singh, six-time chief minister, whose legacy still holds ground, Sukhu seems to have gradually positioned himself as a new alternative to the state's ageing leadership. Virbhadra Singh died in 2021 and several other party seniors also lost their polls.
With a majority of elected MLAs on his side, Sukhu became the party choice for the chief ministerial post outplaying two powerful CM post claimants – PCC president Pratibha Singh (Virbhadra Singh’s wife) and former leader of opposition Mukesh Agnihotri (now his deputy).
Sukhu is talking of "Vyavastha Parivartan" – a change in the system of governance and making the state financially self-reliant in the next four years, besides making Himachal Pradesh a "green energy state".
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Many challenges ahead
The coming days are going to be tough for Sukhu within the party. Having centralised all his powers, it leaves his cabinet ministers with little say in their own domains of power. His half-a-dozen OSDs and advisors are now more powerful than MLAs and ministers.
Insiders say that PCC president Pratibha Singh has twice met Sukhu and raised her grievances. The Congress MLAs who could not get cabinet berths this time are regrouping against him. Some have frequently been meeting the high command. The few leaders, ex-MLAs and ex-ministers who lost elections or were denied tickets, are in queue for posts of Chairman and Vice-Person but the CM is not ready to take a call.
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Kangra – the state's biggest district, which is considered the political capital – could be a thorn in Sukhu's crown since it has not been given appropriate representation. Kangra has just one cabinet rank minister despite having elected 10 MLAs out of a total of 15. Contrary to this, Shimla elected seven MLAs and has three cabinet ministers.
The question remains, how will the fresh electoral gains help Congress beyond Shimla and Sukhu's slogan of good governance in 2024?
