Bjp: Dilli Dur Ast?

On the afternoon of December 4, even as President K.R. Narayanan informed Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma that the House he had presided over for 18 months had been dissolved paving the way for a mid-term poll, BJP president L.K. Advani was addressing a party-organised Muslim youth conference. The BJP leader made it a point to mention all the issues that have alienated the party from the Muslim community so as "not to be accused of diluting the saffron colour of the BJP". Yet, he promised the 4,000-strong audience: "If the country's Muslims could give up their claim to the Ram temple site at Ayodhya, I will personally speak to the VHP and work out an amicable solution to the Mathura and Kashi issues." Asked whether this 'barter' offer would be part of the BJP's manifesto, Advani told Outlook: "It could be, that is for the manifesto committee to decide. But it should be clear to all that it will be our policy when the party president has stated it publicly."

The message was clear: even the BJP 'hardliners' realise that to come to power in Delhi, the party would have to garner support from all quarters. And by all means. The electoral arithmetic in the country and the uncertain political firmament has been worrying the BJP think-tank for a while now. And these hard figures is what had prompted the BJP's last-ditch attempts to form a Vajpayee-led government at the Centre through defections. However, the sight of the 'principled' A.B. Vajpayee inviting, if not encouraging, defections from the Congress and the UF may have been good realpolitik, but on the eve of a mid-term poll it was certainly bad tactics.

Nonetheless, the attempt was made, because internal assessments in the BJP—worked out before the elections were announced—underscored what most knew already: that the BJP did close to its best in 1996 in the north and the west of the country. And the south and the east (minus Bihar) of the country remain largely outside the sphere of influence of the Sangh parivar. Consequently, the party is concentrating on formulating a three-pronged strategy for the elections. The new strategy has been discussed and approved at a series of meetings at Vajpayee's residence in the first week of December, and has been endorsed by the party office-bearers.

According to a BJP vice-president, the plan in a nutshell is to: "Retain and if possible increase our tally of about 137 (of 162) Lok Sabha seats from the north and the west; concentrate on the four crucial states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Bihar and Orissa; and also look for tactical alliances in the southern and eastern states. " According to BJP general secretary Govindacharya, the party's plank for the forthcoming election will have 'stability' as its cornerstone. Corruption, the unreliability of the Opposition—whether UF constituents or Congress—and a selective use of Hindutva and the Ram temple slogan are going to be the other key elements of the BJP campaign, say sources.

Significantly, the BJP is likely to emphasise its "commitment to devolution of power to the states" in its campaign in the south and the east of the country. For, though the official BJP stand is that the party "will win a simple majority with its present allies", a crucial part of the election strategy is to forge alliances with regional parties in the areas where they are weak. And a frontal attack on the "opportunistic" UF and Congress which have "cheated the BJP of power in the name of secularism" is very much on the cards. But these plans are fraught with difficulties.

In the north and the west, even a much better performance by the BJP may not translate into a quantum leap in the number of seats they have won, as these are thought to have 'peaked' in 1996. Take UP, for instance. The BJP, which is at its most resurgent and powerful in this state, won a total of 52 (of 85) seats last time round but that was in a three-cornered contest. This time, there is the potential 'grand alliance' of 'secular' forces—SP, BSP and Congress—to worry about. While the SP and BSP have turned sworn enemies of late, when it comes to the BJP, the indications are that there will be a likemindedness of approach. The signs of such an alliance fructifying can be gauged from the fact that Mulayam has spoken publicly of tying up with the Congress and has preferred not to comment on the BSP.

The parting of ways with the BSP with its 'transferable' votebank, much to the Vajpayee camp's chargin, may prove a crucial loss for the party. Already, attempts are being made by some quarters of the BJP central leadership to work out an 'arrangement' with Kanshi Ram. But then, that would mean not playing the Ram temple card in UP, which Kalyan Singh has rejected outright. In Delhi for a December 5 meeting, Kalyan had emphasised to his supporters the need for him to be back in Lucknow the next day as December 6 was highly symbolic for the party in UP. Already, sants and leaders of the VHP have begun touring the UP countryside asking the people to elect a 'Ram bhakt' government at the Centre.

In most other states in the region, the BJP is as faction-ridden as the Congress. In many states they may have to face an alliance—Congress-RJP in Gujarat, Congress-SP in Maharashtra, even a possible BSP-Congress deal in Punjab. In Haryana, Punjab, Maharashtra and Rajasthan where the BJP is in power (with coalition partners), the anti-incumbency factor may also play a crucial role.

In Bihar, where the BJP-Samata Party alliance has proven a challenge to Laloo Prasad Yadav, a rejuvenated Laloo in alliance with the Congress and the Jharkhand parties is likely to prevent much more than an equal division of seats. And for all the emphasis the BJP is putting on the other three "electorally crucial states"—the party national executive meeting from December 19 is scheduled to be held in Bhubaneshwar—tangible electoral gains are likely to be a medium, if not long-term, prospect. The nature of the task before the BJP in these states is evident in even a cursory look at their seat tally from the 1996 elections: Andhra Pradesh-0; Orissa-0; Karnataka-6.

Says Ananth Kumar, BJP MP from Bangalore: "If, as we hope, we can double our tally from Karnataka, the state will be our gateway to the south." Advani, on the other hand, claims that "support for the BJP led by Vajpayee is there even in the south in urban areas." But, for the present, these are unquantifiable factors.

For the rest of the east and the south, it has to be alliances all the way for the BJP. And on this front, the party has suffered a dual setback. First, the UF—egged on by the Left parties—is sticking together. While the BJP claims, with some reason, that this "swim or sink together" policy will come apart at the seams before the elections, the party is deeply worried by this unity. For, the DMK, TDP, AGP and even the TMC are seen as potential allies in a situation where the BJP improves its tally but still falls short of a majority at the Centre. The assessment is based on the premise that differences in ideology and support base notwithstanding, the regional parties would take the plunge and support the BJP if it was close to forming a stable government.

However, the other hurdle for the BJP is that now, with the regional parties having tasted power in a real sense for the very first time, thanks to the experiment in federalism, they may not be ready to settle for being mere appendages to an aggressive, ideology-driven party, never mind the Vajpayee consolation. The response? "We are completely committed to devolution of powers, including financial powers. In fact, our chief minister's conference at Jaipur earlier this year went even one step ahead of the Sarkaria Commssion," Advani told Outlook.

To break the UF and wean away some of its constituents is a priority for the BJP, say sources. And to this end, a campaign has been launched to the effect that the UF experiment was "sham federalism" and that the actual power lay with the CPI(M) and the Congress. But as of now, there seem to be no takers for this theory from among the major regional parties.

Unsuccessful in forming an 'A Team' of new alliances, the BJP is rushing headlong into an attempt to constitute at least a 'B Team' from the regions where they lack a base. Lakshmi Parvathi and cine star Vijayashanti in Andhra Pradesh; S. Bangarappa and perhaps even R.K. Hegde in Karnataka; AIADMK in Tamil Nadu; the Bhrigu Phukan faction of the AGP in Assam; a prospective tie-up with Srikant Jena-Dilip Ray-Naveen Patnaik in Orissa; and keeping open channels of communication with the parties of the Northeast.

The figures tell their own story. In Assam, of the 14 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP won a solitary seat in 1996. All of the other Northeast states put together (of a total of 11 seats) added up to nil. The party drew a blank in West Bengal as well and the same performance was repeated in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

The BJP's line of defence to this entire scenario is predictable. Says Narendra Modi: "The point you forget is that all the losses of the Congress throughout the country will be the BJP's gain." Adds Govindacharya: "The UF-Congress coming together in a post-poll situation will only expose them thoroughly and will leave the entire political space for us. But we will form the government on our own with current allies, so this possibility does not bother us."

 Advani is confident about the party's chances: "My first real experience of an election was in 1971 and I was as cynical of Indira Gandhi's chances of sweeping to power despite the victory in the Bangladesh war, because each state had a stalwart at the helm opposed to her Congress. But she did. The same situation exists today

It is around this assessment that the BJP will try and create the atmospherics by means of its well-oiled party machinery in the regions where their electoral presence is nil or negligible, to try and make the magic figure of 273 which will give them a simple majority in the 12th Lok Sabha. The December 6 meeting of party office-bearers set in motion the process of creating election and publicity committees to try and "build this mood". But the BJP president's optimism is certainly not borne out by the ground realities. The "finals" seem to have come earlier than expected for the BJP.