Is Wagner Group’s Mutiny The End Of The Road For Russian President Putin?

The weekend mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, was the most serious threat to President Vladimir Putin in his over two decades in power. Though Prigozhin made it clear that the idea was to force Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, the man leading the war in Ukraine, out of office, it was nevertheless a challenge to Putin’s authority. With video clips of tanks and soldiers marching towards Moscow in all appearance, it seemed like a full-scale military coup.     

Though it was a short-lived rebellion and the Wagner boss ordered his troops to turn back from their march to Moscow, many questions are being raised about the future of the all-powerful Putin. Many in the West predict the beginning of the end for Putin. While there is no doubt that the shenanigans over the weekend have hit Putin’s image, what effect if any it will have on the war in Ukraine remains to be seen.

It is too early to say if this is part of a larger conspiracy that could unfold in the days to come or a one-off event. 

“Fundamentally, any sign of instability in any authoritarian regime raises questions of whether the leader is in control, but I don’t see an imminent departure for Putin. In fact, I expect him to come back in 2024 when presidential elections are held. All this of course unless there is some kind of Black Swan event,” says Nandan Unnikrishnan, an expert on Russia at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF). 

A Black Swan event is an unforeseen event for which one cannot prepare.

Unnikrishnan agreed that questions will be asked by the Russian elite as well as ordinary citizens about why the all-powerful former spy did not foresee the Wagner chief’s rebellion. After all, Putin had a meeting with Prigozhin 10 days or so before the rebellion. The Wagner boss had gone public with his criticism of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov several times in the months leading to the final showdown. Yet nothing was done to contain it. What is shocking is the fact that the Wagner mercenaries were in complete control of the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don from where operations are planned.

Many analysts have come up with several conspiracy theories, but the facts on the ground are all we have to go by at the moment. A deal was done with long-serving Belarusian leader President Alexander Lukashenko acting as the conduit. The important thing is that the Wagner chief or his men have not been punished. It has been announced that all charges will be dropped against the mutineers. Prigozhin has been given safe haven in Belarus and his followers have been asked either to join the Russian forces or go to Belarus or to return to their families. Putin is known to be tough on his opponents, so why has he dealt a man he accused of treason with kid gloves? Is this coming from a position of weakness? More so in an old interview, Putin had said he is willing to forgive his enemies but cannot forgive treachery. 

The mutiny had taken Putin by surprise and angered him. In an address to the people on Monday, Putin said: “They wanted Russians to fight each other…Civic solidarity has shown that any blackmail, attempts to create internal unrest, are doomed to failure.” He explained to the public that steps were taken to avoid major bloodshed during the rebellion, but it took time. He accused the Wagner group of wanting to see Russian society “choked in bloody strife”.

Speaking for the first time after the failed mutiny, Prigozhin has said that the mutiny was for the survival of the Wagner group. He said he took the decision as his group of mercenaries was to be disbanded by July 1, meaning by the end of the month. He also said he had no intention of seizing power in Moscow but criticised the Russian military for its poor performance in Ukraine. He claimed that if he and his men were given the task, the ‘special military operation’ —as the Russian government calls the invasion of Ukraine— would have been completed in 24 hours.

So, was the rebellion all about saving his commercial interests? That seems too simplistic an answer. There seems more to this than meets the eye.

Prigozhin started off as a small-time criminal and was in a Soviet jail for eight years. After the break-up of the former Soviet Union when prisoners were freed, he earned a living by selling hotdogs in St Petersburg. He did well and gradually opened more eating joints and graduated to restaurants. Putin at that time was also in St Petersburg, having resigned from the KGB, and was adviser to Sobchak, the first elected mayor of St Petersburg. Later, he became the deputy mayor. Around this time, he would visit Prigozhin’s restaurants and enjoyed the food. 

When Putin moved to Moscow as President of Russia, Prigozhin got the contract to supply school lunches. He started making money and soon switched to military matters. He founded the mercenary group and took part in the 2014 campaign in Crimea. He did well and the Wagner group was also deployed in Syria. By then, he was very rich and got hefty payments from the Russian government. Disbanding the Wagner Group would be a huge financial loss. He publicly berated Shoigu and pointed out flaws in military operations.

The fact is the Wagner group and the Defence Ministry were at loggerheads and were pulling in different directions. What effect this will finally have on the war front is hard to say. It is also a fact that the Ukraine War did not go according to plan. When that happens, the blame game begins.

Putin’s decision to send Russian troops into Ukraine was a gamble that has misfired. What Putin thought would be a short military operation has snowballed into a major war with enormous loss of lives. But Russian troops have also recouped, adapted, and still control 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory despite the counter-offensive and the modern weapons at Ukraine’s disposal thanks to the United States and its allies. 

Nevertheless, the Wagner mutiny reflects badly on Putin and is a major dent in his image. But this is not the end of the story. Putin is a fighter and knows where and how to hit back. He will bide his time.