India’s Strategic Pivot from Russian Oil Outpaces Trump’s Tariff Pressures

New Delhi’s deliberate diversification predates U.S. penalties, signaling broader energy security goals amid bilateral trade thaw.

Russia Oil
Russia Oil | Photo: AP/Rebecca Blackwell
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Summary
Summary of this article
  • India trimmed Russian oil import values in 8/10 months pre-tariffs, per official data, as part of a diversification plan to avoid over-dependence, not as a direct response to U. pressure.

  • New 1-year LPG deal imports 2.2M tonnes from America fostering bilateral thaw.

  • Trump signals duty cuts after India’s “substantial” rollback amid ongoing Russian flows

India’s ongoing reduction in Russian crude imports reflects a proactive strategy to curb over-reliance on Moscow, well before the US slapped a 25% “penalty” tariff on Indian goods effective August 27, 2025. Officials in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry describe it as a long-planned recalibration, not a knee-jerk reaction to Washington’s moves, aiming to balance energy needs with global diplomacy.

As ties warm, India is ramping up US energy imports, including a landmark deal for 2.2 million tonnes of American LPG annually while surging crude buys from the US to levels unseen since 2022. President Donald Trump, who recently hailed Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “great man” and claimed India has “largely stopped” Russian purchases, hinted at tariff relief on November 11, tying it to this shift. Yet data from tanker trackers like Kpler shows Russian volumes lingering at 1.85 million barrels per day as of mid-November, underscoring a gradual unwind rather than an abrupt halt.

Trade think tank GTRI urges swift US rollback of the surcharge, arguing it’s now obsolete given India’s pivot, which could save billions in import costs but risks inflating domestic fuel prices by $9–11 billion annually if discounts vanish. Refiners like Reliance and state firms, handling two-thirds of Russian flows, are hedging by slashing December orders amid sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil.

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