As per the Opta supercomputer, Paris Saint-Germain are favourites to defend their French Ligue 1 title this season
The race for a UEFA Champions League spot will be tight, with Lille, Marseille, and Nice among the contenders
While there are no overwhelming relegation favourites, the three new promoted clubs - Lorient, Paris, and Metz - are expected to go down
The 2025-26 Ligue 1 season is almost upon us, with Rennes and Marseille set to kick off the new campaign on Friday.
Paris Saint-Germain are the reigning champions, coming off a stellar 2024-25 which saw them win the Ligue 1, Coupe de France and Champions League treble for the first time in their history.
Luis Enrique's side almost added an extra cherry on top of the cake over the summer as well, but fell just short of Club World Cup glory in mid-July as they were brushed aside in the final by Chelsea.
And while PSG will be looking to showcase their Ligue 1 dominance once again this year – they have won the last four league titles on offer – there are a few teams waiting in the wings hoping to upset the recent order.
Marseille have kept hold of Roberto De Zerbi, marking the first time in five seasons that a head coach has stayed on for a second season at the club, and will be aiming to sustain a title battle this time around, having seen their strong start to 2024-25 fizzle out.
But the likes of Lille and Monaco will also be keen to mount the pressure after differing results in the tight race for the Champions League places last season.
Just eight points separated second from seventh last term, with Monaco securing their place in the group stage of Europe's top competition for the first time since 2018-19, while Lille just missed out on the qualifying spot to Nice.
At the other end of the table, due to Reims losing the relegation/promotion play-off to Metz in extra time, three teams are stepping into Ligue 1, with Lorient and Paris FC, who are returning to the top-flight for the first time in 46 years, also joining them.
Here, using the 10,000 data-led simulations run by Opta's supercomputer, we see how the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season will pan out.
PSG the big favourites
It is no surprise that the European champions are overwhelming favourites to top the table once again.
Luis Enrique's team wrapped up the title in early April last term, and only lost two league matches overall, with their first defeat coming after they had already clinched top spot.
They finished 19 points clear of second-place Marseille, before making history by clinching the Coupe de France and Champions League titles shortly after.
Their tally of 84 points was the most in an 18-team Ligue 1 season. It was also the best average points-per-game (2.5) in the top five European leagues in 2024-25.
In fact, PSG also finished with the best possession (68.2%), the best average shots per game (18.7) and passes completed per game (656) since 2006-07.
They were spearheaded by Ousmane Dembele, who is among the favourites for the Ballon d'Or after a fine individual campaign in which he recorded 46 goal contributions (33 goals, 13 assists) for PSG across all competitions (not counting the Club World Cup).
The 28-year-old's 21 Ligue 1 goals were a joint-high in the competition, level with Marseille's Mason Greenwood, while no player bettered his 27 goal involvements. Bradley Barcola came close with 24 and was one of just two players in the league to hit double figures for both goals (14) and assists (10).
PSG have not made many moves in the transfer window – goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier has arrived from Lille and defender Ilya Zabarnyi joined in a big-money move from Bournemouth – but they are still given a 78.7% chance of lifting the trophy for a fifth consecutive season by the Opta supercomputer.
The likelihood of them finishing second is just 12.8%, while their chances of not finishing inside the top three are a lowly 3.7%.
That being said, there does appear to be some upheaval, with the club seemingly keen to push Gianluigi Donnarumma out of the door despite his heroics in the Champions League last term.
Since 2012-13, only two teams other than PSG have won Ligue 1, with Monaco triumphing in 2016-17 and Lille pipping them to the trophy in 2020-21.
With that in mind, Lille are given the second-best chance of lifting the title, with their hopes sitting at just 5.5%, perhaps a surprise given that they finished fifth last season and have lost star striker Jonathan David, who netted 16 Ligue 1 goals in 2024-25.
They have added Olivier Giroud to their ranks, and France's record goalscorer may feel he has a point to prove after a disappointing spell with Los Angeles FC, which saw him hit the back of the net just five times, underperforming his 7.0 expected goals (xG).
Our model also gives Monaco an outside chance at 4.2%. They have finished in the top three in four of the last five campaigns.
Monaco have made a splash in the transfer market, too, bringing in Ansu Fati and Paul Pogba, with the former returning to football for the first time in nearly two years after his suspension. Fati, meanwhile, is looking to regain his confidence after falling out of favour at Barcelona.
Marseille and Lyon, who won an appeal against demotion to Ligue 2 during the off-season, are the only other teams with more than a 2% chance of winning the title (both 3.4%), though all of the clubs face an uphill battle if they are to upset PSG.
Champions League race too close to call?
While the title race looks like it might be a straightforward affair, the battle for the Champions League positions is expected to be much tighter, and like last season, it could go down to the wire.
Seventeen of the 18 teams in the league are given at least a 1% chance of finishing inside the top four, with the top three automatically entering the group stage of the Champions League and one entering the third round of qualifying.
The more likely scenario is that four teams will battle it out for the last three spots, so who are the main contenders?
Lille are the favourites to finish second (18.4%), with their chances overall of clinching a Champions League spot coming in at 51.4%, though, as touched on before, they will not be without challenges.
David was a key component for Bruno Genesio's side last term, with his 21 goal involvements (16 goals, five assists) more than double what any of his team-mates managed.
Overall, Lille netted 52 goals in 2024-25, the joint-sixth best in the league, but none of their players bar David managed to hit double figures, with Hakon Haraldsson, their second-highest scorer, only netting five times in the league.
Lille accumulated 55.9 xG, so they underperformed in front of goal. They had 434 shots, with a shot conversion rate of just 12%.
But it is not just in attack that Lille have questions to answer. Chevalier has also left, and he was a key part of a strong defence last term.
Only PSG (35) conceded fewer goals than Lille (36). They had the fifth-lowest expected goals against (xGA) at 43.5, though they prevented 7.5 goals, the most in the league.
Monaco are expected to finish third for the second season running (15.2%), although their chances of finishing second are slightly higher (15.8%).
Like Lille, Monaco's Champions League push last term was built on a strong defence, with only PSG (31.3) boasting a better xGA than their 35.2.
But their campaign turned on its head for the better with Mika Biereth's January signing as he lit up Ligue 1 with three hat-tricks in February, becoming the fastest player to reach the 10-goal mark in the 21st century and the first Monaco player to score three trebles in one season since Delio Onnis.
Marseille, who have their own goal poacher in Greenwood, who was the joint-top scorer and had more shots than any other player (120), are expected to round out the top four, with a 43% chance.
They are expected to have Lyon at their heels, though, with Paulo Fonseca also given a 43% probability of securing a top-four finish in his first full campaign at the helm.
They have a slightly better chance of finishing third than Marseille (14.1% to 13.1%) but are otherwise expected to finish just short in fifth and clinch a Europa League spot instead.
Nice finished fourth last term, making it to the Champions League qualifying rounds for the first time since 2017-18, and are an outside bet to do the same once more, with a 22.8% chance of earning a place in Europe's top competition.
Strasbourg (22.9%) and Lens (19.2%) also have a strong chance of finishing in the top four this time around, as do Brest, who reached the play-offs before a harrowing 10-0 aggregate defeat to PSG, with their chances sitting at 15.4%.
The relegation scrap
With the top half of the table expected to include the same contenders as last year, the teams in the bottom nine may be wary of slipping too close to the drop zone.
And while there are no overwhelming favourites to be relegated, the newly promoted teams of Lorient, Paris and Metz are all expected to be dragged into the survival scrap.
Metz stunned Reims in extra time to clinch the final promotion spot, but they are expected to go straight back to the second division once more. They have a 17.4% chance of finishing bottom, with their overall likelihood of relegation 32.5%.
Paris, meanwhile, will have all eyes on them when they open their campaign against Angers on August 17 as they make their top-flight return after 46 years away, having finished second in Ligue 2, narrowly missing out on top spot to Lorient.
The Ligue 2 champions are the most likely to go down alongside Metz at 31%. However, they are less likely to finish bottom (16.3%) than Paris (16.9%), despite the team from the capital being projected to finish 15th overall.
Le Havre, who avoided the promotion/relegation play-off by a single point after a last-day win over Strasbourg, are not expected to do so again, with their projected finish currently 16th (13.3%), with a 30.8% chance of direct relegation.
Angers also look set to be in the mix at the bottom of the table as the only other team with more than a 20% chance of relegation (24%), though Nantes (18.4%) could also be in trouble, with their chances of the play-off spot sitting at 10.2%.
Although Auxerre are projected to finish 12th, they could be looking over their shoulder in order to avoid 16th, with a 6.8% chance of having to play for their spot in Ligue 1, though their likelihood of finishing in the top four sits at 6%, meaning they have an almost even chance of competing at either end of the table.
