India need to win with a 220-run margin against Zimbabwe to overtake South Africa
The win margin need to be 290, if India want to topple West Indies in terms of run-rate
If West Indies lose to South Africa, then India just need to win the remaining two matches to qualify for semi-finals
India are in dire straits. Dismissed for a 'Nelson' in 113 balls by South Africa in their first Super 8 game, the defending ICC T20 World Cup champions will need to win both their remaining games against Zimbabwe and the West Indies to keep their semi-final hopes alive.
But wins and points may not be enough, as a three-way fight in Group 1 becomes a distinct possibility. And the dreaded net run rate (NRR) will come into play if such a thing comes to pass.
As things stand, the West Indies and South Africa, with two points each, occupy the semi-final spots. The Windies, thanks to their 107-run win over Zimbabwe, boast a net run rate (NRR) of +5.350, followed by the Proteas with +3.800. India, the top-ranked T20I side, are third with -3.800, while Zimbabwe have -5.350.
Meaning, both South Africa and the Windies have one leg already in the semis. And the winners of the South Africa vs West Indies match at Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad will only consolidate their position at the top of the Group 1 table with four points and a far superior NRR.
Conversely, for India and Zimbabwe, the maximum they can pocket is four points. So, both teams not only need victories in their remaining games but also need to improve the NRR with big wins. Their target is to overtake South Africa and the West Indies, or at least move closer to them and hope for other results to go their way.
India Vs Zimbabwe: Winning Margin Matters, Not Just Result
After the close of play tonight, the Group 1 table will look significantly different. And India, with a massive win over Zimbabwe, could move to second place, provided South Africa and West Indies play out a close game.
Scenario 1
If India bat first and score 250, they need to dismiss Zimbabwe for some 20 runs to leapfrog South Africa (assuming the Proteas lose to the Windies) on NRR. Here, we are talking about a winning margin of more than 220 runs. If India were to overtake the Windies (assuming they lose to South Africa), the winning margin should be around 290. Almost unthinkable
Scenario 2
If India bowl first and dismiss Zimbabwe for 150, they will need to chase the target in fewer than eight overs to climb above South Africa. But to overtake the West Indies, India need to chase such a target in less than seven overs.
All hypothetical, yet the task at hand is insane as it gets. Their target is to overtake South Africa/West Indies, or at least move closer to them and hope for other results to go their way.
Latest Update: After the nine-wicket defeat with 23 balls remaining to South Africa, the West Indies' NRR took a beating too: dropped to +1.791 from +5.350. Now, the Proteas, besides having the most points, also boast the best NRR in the group, +2.890.
So, India's task gets a bit easier.
