A Testing 2nd Innings
- Amit Shah has been elected BJP chief for a second term. But this time, he must tread gingerly.
- Centralisation of power in the party has left it without a team for the real work on the ground.
- Doing fairly well—leave along winning—elections in Assam, Bengal, Kerala and TN will be tough.
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Back in 1952, as Pearl Bailey was scorching Billboard with his chartbuster Takes Two To Tango, who would have imagined that at a remove of six decades (and a few cultures) from that event, India’s Narendra Modi, only two years old then, would make that dictum the mantra of his political life. Call it an insurance policy, or even a hedge fund.
From his innings in Gujarat to the 20 months he has been prime minister, Modi has made sure that trusted lieutenant Amit Anilchandra Shah stays by his side. More of that was on display on January 24 when Shah was re-elected unopposed as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president for three years. That is till 2019, when Modi will seek a second term for himself as prime minister.
Modi indeed guaranteed a second innings for Shah, overriding objections from the Sangh and the party. For over four months, he rallied with the RSS for Shah’s reappointment—not so much because Shah’s performance as BJP chief has been flawless, but because, if Modi has to lead in 2019, Shah must be there to watch his back. But Shah’s second term will not be as easy as the first, it seems: some BJP-watchers are convinced his utility as a fall guy must also have been considered during his appointment.
With the BJP looking more and more like the Congress, senior RSS leaders say “it needs reinvention—just like the government”. They say the euphoria of 2014 has died and they sense waning popularity and disillusionment. “What else can explain the defeats in Delhi and Bihar?” they ask. “This is not what we had been promised and this year and 2017 will be a test by fire both for the PM and Amit Shah.” These harsh words come from one of the BJP’s ideological fountainheads and perhaps the staunchest supporter of the Modi-Shah combine from among the veterans. Shah’s aura of invincibility remains dented, and he needs to deliver in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu this year. In none of these states will the elections be a cakewalk. Though the BJP has raised its pitch in Assam and West Bengal, the truth is, it will take more than just catchy slogans to win in these states, where it has hardly any presence. It will need effective back-up teams in the party and at North Block to implement Modi’s grand plans.
Senior leaders complain the BJP has lost “a team” in the last few years, especially since the “Gujarat model of extreme centralisation of power” arrived in Delhi. That’s the reason, they say, simple issues like appointing state unit presidents has become troublesome in states like Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. In the central party office in Delhi, senior leaders complain about the “Congressisation of the BJP with a high-command structure now well in place”. A senior BJP leader from Delhi says, “Our party was one of consensus. But now every decision is left to the party high command. Did the BJP ever have a high command culture, like the Congress?” It does now, though perhaps in proxy.
“Modi and Shah are making sure they don’t groom any more talent. It suits the party president and the PM in the long run. Even performing ministers like Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari and Nirmala Sitharaman have to play second fiddle to the PM, always,” says a source. That’s perhaps why BJP’s national vice-president Vinay Sahasrabuddhe hinted last month that there was a talent deficit in the government—only to later say that he had been misquoted. RSS leaders, meanwhile, have repeatedly blamed “lack of talent in the BJP pool” for delays in appointments to crucial posts in institutions like the Niti Aayog. Insiders call it a “vacuum within”.
A BJP insider in Delhi confesses, “Given the current circumstances, it seems the Congress did a better job at running the government. Even if there were two power centres, at least both policymaking by the NAC and implementation by the Manmohan Singh-led government was happening. Back then work was being done. Now, even that basic work has stopped. All we hear is slogans and ideas. Implementation is grossly missing.” Another leader adds: “There is a general lack of vision and direction in the government. Only rallying cries and catchphrases can’t help reap results.”
There’s too much going wrong for Modi and his government’s image. The resurfacing of the Ram temple issue, the intolerance debate and increasing discomfort among minorities as well as Dalits has left the government and the PM smeared. Add to that the glaring economic slowdown, a sore point even with the RSS leadership. For a government that promised to be pro-poor, inability to contain soaring prices of essential food items like pulses, oil and onions is a huge letdown. The PM’s abysmal failure lies in the stagnation on the job front at all levels of industry—a stark contrast to the promise of job creation he had made during the election campaign. What’s worse, finance minister Arun Jaitley’s pitch for Start-Up India in Davos as a job creator is a tacit admission that the government has limitations in providing jobs domestically. All this after Modi, as far back as November 2013, made creation of one crore jobs if the BJP came to power his strongest poll pitch.
Leaders from the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh (BKS), the BJP’s organisation for farmers, point to the Devendra Fadnavis government’s official affidavit to the Bombay High Court, enumerating farmer suicides in the state in 2015 at 1,000, as a case for government apathy. They quietly add that the suicide figures are way higher—a staggering 3,000-plus by any estimate. Not just that, over 300 districts out of a total of 600 are under the spell of drought, with little or no aid from the government.
“To call this government frustrating is not enough,” says a former ideologue. “There is an atmosphere of despondency. From water privatisation to seeds to forest to tribal rights—everything has been undermined and traded off. What is left? The government is pandering to the business interests of the west and the corporates. Its only priority is infrastructure projects because that’s where western countries and deep-pocket corporates can use opened-up Indian markets.”
The problem with the Modi government, however, is that even corporates are reporting “no profit” and social-sector spending is minimal. Says a senior RSS leader, “There is nothing that you see on the ground. We only hear slogans during elections and then everything comes to a standstill. This kind of atmosphere will spell doom for the party and the PM.” So why does the RSS, as guiding guru, not intervene if things are so grim? He explains: “It may suit the government to present a picture of being arm-twisted by the RSS. But the truth is the RSS has very little influence on the PM or the government. No one is listening to us.”
Perhaps that holds some water. For if that wasn’t the case, why would RSS affiliate organisations like the BKS, the labour wing Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS), as also the tribal issues-oriented Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram (VKA) be forced to wage their own battles with the government over its policies? Sources confirm that the RSS is miffed with the government’s refusal to further its agenda in education, tribal welfare and health. They say there’s little the Sangh can do about it. “Is there an option available? At the moment, Narendra Modi is the only option—within and without. What can be done?” they ask. That, of course, leaves the RSS to play the part of mere interventionist. One that can make threatening noises, but lacks the power to influence change.
That said, the Sangh is doing what it can. Sources confirm that RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat recently summoned both Shah and Modi separately to discuss all matters that have gone wrong. A stern warning has also been sent across: shape up if the BJP wishes to make a dent in the four states going to assembly elections this year. In the meeting, held behind closed doors in Delhi, the RSS, insiders confirm, has listed out what all is wrong with the government.
The doctor, then, must be called in. Many in the party are busy giving credence to the claim that Shah’s second term was blessed by the RSS only on the promise that finance minister Jaitley be shunted out. While that remains to be seen, with an impending cabinet reshuffle, a game of Chinese checkers is bound to be played out on Raisina Hill. The wise men from Nagpur believe that the dream merchants from Gujarat, Modi and Shah, have fallen short on delivery. The hype then must give way to a rejig of Modi’s own stable.
To start with, the government must deliver an astounding budget in the next few weeks to win public support and sympathy. Sources confirm that the PM is also set to order a change of image for self and partymen. News reports of Modi undertaking less trips abroad are part of the same exercise. Meanwhile, the government, insiders say, is likely to be turn more hands-on and ministers are being told to acquire more of the common touch in tune with his aspirations: the government at all costs must seem effective and Modi’s ministers efficient.
After all, about 20 months ago, when the prime minister took the oath of office, he urged people to judge him by his report card of five years of development work. It is now time for Modi to prove if he really overpitched himself to the Indian public or if he is actually the Rambo and the king of good times they believed him to be. Clearly, Modi is not a man cornered by rabid right-wingers in his organisation. Modi is neither a victim of a failed back-up team nor a leader with an incompetent advisory cell. Finally, Narendra Damodardas Modi must prove he is who he has made himself out to be: the harbinger of achhe din! And Modi’s tango with his aide Shah must generate new syntheses and new electoral riches.
