A Song Sangh Blew

There's a certain monotony to the manner in which the Sangh parivar keeps sparring with its political arm, the BJP, over the same old issues. But last week was a particularly rocky period with the parivar launching a sustained and scathing attack. This time, it was joined in by the anti-disinvestment trio in Atal Behari Vajpayee's cabinet—George Fernandes, Murli Manohar Joshi and Ram Naik. Two issues came centrestage: the huge differences over disinvestment and economic policies which have the potential to embarrass the prime minister; and the VHP's post-Akshardham fulminations against the Vajpayee government's failure to fight terrorism effectively.

The latest round of differences between the Sangh and Vajpayee would normally have been written off as another bout of shadow-boxing had the rss reined in the VHP or the former retracted from its swadeshi position on economic matters by making placatory noises on "compulsions of coalition politics". But the parivar has stood its ground this time around despite Vajpayee reacting sharply to some of the criticism levelled at his government's economic policies by none other than rss sarsanghchalak K.S. Sudarshan. Says a senior rss functionary, "This is the right time to push our agenda as we have to cater to our cadres who often feel disillusioned and let down by the BJP. It is they who'll work for the BJP in all the assembly elections due next year before the 2004 general elections." Adds VHP international general-secretary Praveen Togadia, "We're well-wishers of the BJP but we have our own constituency." The parivar's aggression is also linked to its belief that the Vajpayee prime ministership has entered a phase of decline.

On the issue of disinvestment and economic reforms in general and the sale of oil psus in particular, the rss believes it has support from a broader constituency. As a BJP leader says, "Even many votaries of disinvestment see a grain of truth in Sudarshanji's argument that following the imf model ruined Southeast Asian economies and Russia." Naik insists: "I'm not against disinvestment as such, it's just certain sectors which should not be touched."

In spite of the PM's intervention in support of disinvestment minister Arun Shourie, highly-placed BJP sources believe that the sale of oil psus has been blocked. They believe that L.K. Advani will be the final arbiter on the issue even though the deputy PM has avoided voicing his opinion so far. Sources close to him say that "he has been put in a very trying position and it is causing him a lot of stress". On the one hand, Advani still has a soft corner for Shourie, seen as one of the early Hindutva ideologues. On the other, the minister's attacks on cabinet colleagues opposed to his disinvestment plans has left him distressed. Shourie still seems to believe that Advani will stand by him. But sources reveal that though Advani supports disinvestment, he has come around to the view that oil is a strategic sector which should remain under government control. And though he may be treading cautiously, he is also opposed to allowing any one business house to run a virtual monopoly in this sector.

And it is a complex sequence of events that the BJP insiders believe led to Vajpayee speaking out. First, the PM wanted to send out a signal to international monetary agencies that his government is still committed to reforms. Second, the pmo had always backed Shourie's disinvestment plans but backed off when he overplayed his hand and made too many enemies in the cabinet and the rss. Which is why some weeks ago the government deferred its decision on the sale of oil psus for three months.

What appears to have irked the PM most is the mini-conclave that the ministers opposed to disinvestment held at hrd minister Joshi's residence.Petroleum minister Naik and defence minister Fernandes went there to firm up plans to reach out to other parties opposed to disinvestment. A senior rss functionary believes Fernandes' presence in particular annoyed Vajpayee: "Fernandes has in the past been the PM's trouble-shooter but of late he's been moving closer to Advani and reaching out to the rss."

It would also be rather simplistic to link the PM's outburst entirely to the speech Sudarshan made the same day. Though Sudarshan did again stress the Sangh's anti-disinvestment and pro-swadeshi economic philosophy, his speech was not overtly aggressive. For one, he did not say anything about the government's war against terrorism, which was surprising, post-Akshardham. But his statement that "those supporting western models of development should be removed even from the highest posts" hit where it hurt. And though the rss is currently gunning for Shourie, it should be remembered that Sudarshan has in the past gunned for Yashwant Sinha and Jaswant Singh and both are still comfortably ensconced in important cabinet posts. rss influence on the Vajpayee regime has clearly been circumscribed over the years.

Which is also why the Sangh affiliates are increasingly charting an independent course of action. This time around, VHP working president Ashok Singhal went so far as to directly attack Vajpayee by stating that his government had failed miserably and that the PM had lost the parivar's trust for failing to take firm action against terrorism. The BJP, he said, "had suffered because of every decision of Vajpayee". BJP president Venkaiah Naidu shot back saying the "VHP statements seem to be influenced by religious intolerance and extremism from across the border". In perhaps the strongest condemnation of the VHP by a BJP leader, Naidu said that "such statements severely compromise our battle against terrorism and give the international community a pretext to bracket us with forces of religious fundamentalism".

The VHP, however, was not to be quietened. Togadia called a press conference the very next day in Delhi, ostensibly to clear the air, but went on to insist that every VHP utterance was inspired by true patriotism. Insisting that neither he nor Singhal meant Vajpayee any offence, Togadia went on to suggest that the PM could brush up his act if he took some lessons from world leaders like Ariel Sharon and George Bush Jr. Failing which, there is always a role model closer home in Narendra Modi! "If the government can't give the necessary leadership, then Modis will spring up everywhere," he thundered. In Togadia's view, neither Vajpayee nor Advani are up to the task.

Such sabre-rattling is usual for the VHP. As one of the unguided missiles of the parivar, the VHP is being true to form and playing to its constituency after Akshardham. Nor is this the first time that Vajpayee has come in its firing line. The fact that the VHP also took a pot-shot at Advani reflects their irritation with the deputy PM's attempt to soften his image. Besides, parivar insiders know that personal equations between Advani and Singhal have been strained for some time. The bigger question is: why has the rss not reined in the VHP as in the past? Says an rss functionary, "Today you have a situation where Singhal will not listen to Sudarshan. We knew he would take off after Akshardham." It is in fact an era where all entities of the parivar, including the BJP, are led by individuals insisting on taking an independent line.

Be that as it may, the VHP fulminations are a mere sideshow. It is the long-drawn battle over disinvestment and economic reforms that has far graver implications for the government. The fallout of the latest spat is that disinvestment and economic reforms will continue in a half-hearted manner.Loss-making and less controversial psus will continue to be hived off. Shourie will hang on to his job—at least for now—as the government does not want to convey the impression that it has abandoned its disinvestment policy. But the swadeshi vs economic reforms issue will continue to be a ticking time-bomb and could well explode into another face-off between the Sangh and Atal Behari Vajpayee.