Watch Out For The Land Of Rising Sun

The government of India has adopted a two-pronged policy in relation to theoutbreak of a revolt in Tibet in protest against the continued occupation ofTibet by China and the violation of the human rights of the Tibetans by theChinese.

It has prevented the Tibetan refugees in India from indulging in activitieswhich might result in acts of violence or disruption directed against Chinesenationals and interests in India and in dramatic acts such as their professedintention of crossing the border into Tibet, which could lead to an undesirableescalation of cross-border tensions. At the same time, it has expressed itsdistress over the situation in Tibet and called for a dialogue so that theTibetans don't feel the need to take to acts of violence in their desperation. Aspokesman of the Ministry of External Affairs of the government of India said onMarch 15, 2008, "We would hope that all those involved will work to improvethe situation and remove the causes of such trouble in Tibet, which is anautonomous region of China, through dialogue and non-violent means."

This is the right approach--expressing our moral support to the Tibetans inaccordance with our national interests without identifying ourselves with theattempts of anti-China activists in the West--particularly the US--to exploitthe continued alienation of the Tibetans and their desperation to createembarrassment for China before and during the Olympic Games in the hope ofthereby achieving their own foreign policy goals in matters such as greaterChinese pressure on North Korea on the nuclear issue and on the military juntain Myanmar on the issue of the restoration a of genuine democracy and therelease of Aung San Suu Kyi.

There are two issues involved here--the aspirations of the Tibetans and usingthe Tibetans to needle China and create difficulties for it in organizing theOlympic Games and making a success of it. While supporting the aspirations ofthe Tibetans in a sophisticated manner, we should not identify ourselves withthe attempts of anti-China activists to sabotage the Olympic Games. We should dowhatever we can in helping China in making a success of the Olympic Games. IfIndia is seen as discreetly helping the efforts of the anti-China activists intheir anti-Beijing Olympics Great Game, we will hurt the feelings of nationalpride of over a billion Chinese. This is not in our national interest.

Indira Gandhi disapproved the attempts of the West to exploit the Afghanistanissue to embarrass and humiliate the erstwhile USSR as the host of the 1980Olympics by organising a boycott of the Moscow Games. A similar attempt is nowon to exploit the Tibetan issue to embarrass and humiliate China as the host ofthe forthcoming Olympics by organising, if possible, a boycott of the BeijingOlympics or at least, a disruption of it. India should strongly oppose this andshould advise the Dalai Lama too not to let the Tibetans be used by theanti-China activists in the US to target the Beijing Olympics. These activistshad waged a fierce campaign against the award of the Beijing Olympics by theInternational Olympics Committee. Having failed in their attempts, they are nowtrying to sabotage the Games.

Our aim should be not to embarrass and humiliate China, but to persuade it tochange its policy on Tibet and enter into a dialogue with the Dalai Lama onmutually agreed terms. India should play the role of a facilitator of such adialogue. India has done well in expressing openly its distress over the turn ofevents in Tibet and in expressing its interest in a dialogue and not a streetconfrontation between the Chinese and the Tibetans.[On being asked, the MEAhas said, "We are distressed by reports of the unsettled situation andviolence in Lhasa, and by the deaths of innocent people. We would hope that allthose involved will work to improve the situation and remove the causes of suchtrouble in Tibet, which is an autonomous region of China, through dialogue andnon-violent means."-- Ed] It could consider one more step at thisimportant point in the history of the Tibetan issue--removing all informalrestrictions on official and social interactions with the Dalai Lama and hisadvisers. Though not openly admitted, such informal restrictions exist. We sawit at the end of last year, when the Cabinet Secretary to the government ofIndia was reported to have advised all Ministers of the Cabinet of the PrimeMinister, Dr Manmohan Singh, not to attend a public reception for the Dalai Lamato felicitate him on the award of the Congressional Medal of Honour to him inthe US. Greater interactions between the Prime Minister and the Dalai Lama inthe form of exchange of courtesy calls, meetings for discussions etc should beconsidered.

Till now, our policy has been to make a clear distinction between the religiousand political dimensions of our stand with regard to the Dalai Lama. We havebeen saying that the courtesies and honour extended by us to the Dalai Lama andthe Tibetan refugees is because of his stature as a highly respected Buddhistleader in the land where Buddhism was born, but it has no political significanceand does not imply our tacit support for his political views. We should now makeit clear that we consider that the Dalai Lama is also an important politicalfigure in the eyes of the Tibetans and hence, his political views have to beconsidered in determining our policy on Tibet.

Expressing our moral support to the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans, withoutdamaging our relations with the Chinese leadership and people--that should bethe objective of our policy. The Tibetan issue has defied a solution for over 50years. It will be wrong and unwise to think that it can be solved now--or atleast a beginning made in that direction--by exploiting the Chinese eagerness tomake a success of the Beijing Olympics.

There are many landmines in the path of policy-making and implementation. As wefine-tune our policy and push it forward gradually, there could bemisperceptions and misinterpretations in China with not only negative impact onour relations with China, but also with renewed tensions across the border,particularly in the Arunachal Pradesh sector. We are likely to see a reversionback to the period between the 1960s and the 1980s when the Chinese military wasin the driving seat of policy-making on Tibet. It was during that period that wesaw the military confrontation of 1962 and the subsequent tensions inSino-Indian relations.

The confidence of the Chinese political leadership that they have pacified Tibetand its people once and for all has been badly shaken. The current revolt showsthere has been no emotional integration between the Tibetans and the Hansettlers in Tibet. The fear of the masses would once again distort the Chinesemilitary mindset in Tibet. They would not admit that their policies towards theTibetan people are responsible for the revolt. Instead, they would see withgreater conviction than in the past that the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan refugeesin India are the source of all their problems in Tibet and not their policies.The temptation to divert international attention away from Tibet to ArunachalPradesh and Dharamsala by engaging in military moves in the Arunachap Pradesharea would be strong..

The conventional wisdom holds that the Chinese are so eager to make a success ofthe Olympics that they would not make any negative moves. This could be so, ifthe situation in Tibet calms down without any more escalation. But if the revoltfurther deteriorates and if the Chinese find themselves facing a situation wherethe choice is between saving their hold on Tibet and saving the Olympics, theywould not hesitate to give priority to the suppression of the Tibetans. Theirbehaviour with relation to Arunachal Pradesh could become unpredictable.

Renewed cross-border military tensions--even Chinese incursions of a majornature--in the Arunachal Pradesh sector after the Olympics is a possibility tobe factored into in our scenario-building and policy-making exercise

Our presence in Arunachal Pradesh should be further strengthened and the variousinfrastructure projects recently announced by the Prime Minister during hisvisit to the area should be pushed through vigorously.