Iran, Myanmar and South China Sea—Key Issues Dominating ASEAN Summit

Some of the world's most intractable conflicts, including the latest fighting in Iran, will be high on the agenda of the annual talks held by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), when they gather in the Philippine capital on Tuesday. The Philippines holds the 11-nation regional bloc's chairmanship this year and is hosting the three-day talks in Manila. The talks will be joined by Western and Asian counterparts, including from the US, China, Russia and the European Union.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are among the key attendees. Ukraine's top diplomat, Andrii Sybiha, has been invited to attend a Friday ceremony commemorating a 1976 nonaggression treaty of ASEAN but is not a participant in the ASEAN meetings Lavrov and Rubio will attend. Rubio and Lavrov have not announced any plans to meet each other or Sybiha while they are in Manila.

ASEAN foreign ministers will first meet among themselves on Tuesday to discuss the hostilities between the US and Iran. These clashes have spilled into other countries in the West Asia and sparked fears of a return to a full-blown war. They plan to issue a joint statement expressing alarm over the developments and urge both sides to resume talks, two Southeast Asian diplomats reported to The Associated Press.

Middle East War Fallout

The fighting has again threatened shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway where roughly 20% of global oil supplies transited before the war. Southeast Asia, a bustling region of more than 680 million people, relies heavily on West Asian oil and gas and was severely hit by the global supply and price shocks sparked by the Iran war.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency in March to ensure the availability of fuel, food and other basic goods and prevent hoarding and profiteering.

Washington's preoccupation with the war in Iran has sparked concerns over its focus on Asia-Pacific security. This includes China's aggressive actions in the disputed South China Sea and against Taiwan, which the Trump administration has pledged to help deter. Rubio's attendance in the ASEAN meetings aimed to renew Washington's assurances.

On the sidelines, Rubio will participate in a meeting of the Quad.

Myanmar Civil War Crisis

Aside from external conflicts, the ASEAN foreign ministers have been under growing pressure to do more to help resolve the conflicts in their own region, primarily the civil war in Myanmar. Since Myanmar's army wrested power from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, more than 8,100 people have died in the fighting. Nearly 22,500 remain in detention, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners stated.

A five-point peace plan issued by ASEAN leaders in 2021 has failed to end the violence in Myanmar, mainly due to non-compliance by its military regime. This prompted the bloc to ban the country's leaders and foreign minister from attending its top-level meetings, including this week's sessions in Manila.

To break the impasse, ASEAN foreign ministers led by Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro met their Myanmar counterpart, Tin Maung Swe, for the first time in five years this month in Bangkok. They renewed calls for an easing of the violence and urged dialogue among all warring groups.

South China Sea Rifts

The ASEAN foreign ministers will meet Wang Yi in Manila to discuss negotiations on a proposed "code of conduct" pact. The agreement aims to prevent long-simmering territorial disputes in the South China Sea from spiralling out of control.

The territorial standoffs involve China, Taiwan and ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Confrontations in the disputed waters have particularly spiked between Chinese and Philippine coast guard and naval forces in recent years.