Russian crude supplied 53.5% of India’s oil imports in June.
India’s Russian oil imports may exceed record 2.35 million bpd.
Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue reshaping India’s crude import mix.
Russia accounted for an average of 2.6 million barrels per day of India's crude imports in June so far — 53.5% of total imports for the period — the Indian Express reported citing vessel tracking data from commodity analytics firm Kpler. For the full month, Kpler expects Russian volumes to exceed 2.35 million barrels per day, surpassing the previous monthly record of 2.2 million barrels per day set in May 2023, the report said.
About 40% of India's crude imports normally transit the Strait of Hormuz, and most of that supply has effectively been offline since the war began in late February. Iraq, ordinarily India's second-largest source of crude and almost entirely dependent on the strait for its exports, has supplied virtually nothing for nearly four months. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have partially compensated by using pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the strait, but supply from the rest of West Asia has fallen sharply, the report said.
Russian crude has filled much of that gap, supported by continued price discounts and steady refinery demand. Indian refiners have also diversified aggressively towards North American and Venezuelan barrels to offset Gulf losses.
The US sanctions waiver that allowed Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil without risk of secondary sanctions — including from sanctioned entities such as Rosneft and Lukoil, and on blocked tankers — expired this week. The waiver had been introduced to keep more oil flowing to global markets and exert downward pressure on prices ahead of US midterm elections, though it attracted criticism from those who argued it funded Russia's war in Ukraine.
While Indian government officials have maintained that the country does not require a US waiver to buy Russian oil, industry experts said it materially eased transactions and removed friction with Washington.
There are indications the waiver may not be renewed. However, analysts are sceptical that much will change quickly. The initial peace deal between US and Iran is widely regarded as fragile, and experts flagged uncertainty over its durability, lingering security risks and the time required for shipowners and insurers to fully regain confidence before normalising voyages through the strait.
In February, Indian refiners were taking just over one million barrels per day from Russia — roughly half the 2025 peak — as US pressure around trade negotiations and sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil bit. By March, with the war raging and the waiver in place, that figure nearly doubled to two million barrels per day. June's expected record represents a further escalation that analysts say will take time to unwind even as the geopolitical situation evolves.
